Jin Canrong: Sino US relations have declined since 17 years, and the United States has played 15 cards against China

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 Jin Canrong: Sino US relations have declined since 17 years, and the United States has played 15 cards against China


According to Jin Canrong, vice president of the school of international relations at Renmin University of China, the strange words and deeds of the trump team are just to please some people at the bottom, and will eventually hurt the interests of the United States itself. Chinas recent military deterrence against Taiwan has played a certain role. Not only is Taiwans fear of war on the rise, but some Anti China figures in the United States, such as Rubio, are also aware that the mainland has a bottom line.

[interview / Dai SuYue / Xu Jun, Dai SuYue

Jin Canrong: to answer this question, I have to give some background information. Recently, there are some difficulties in Chinas external situation. I can classify them into four categories. One is the deterioration of Sino US relations. Since the United States is the worlds most powerful country, it is still very hard for us to put pressure on China in various aspects by the whole government policy towards China carried out by their government.

The second is that there are some problems in Chinas border areas. This is mainly because India nibbled at us on the western border of China, the so-called Ladakh region.

Third, the United States has some staunch allies who follow it to put pressure on China. Australia, Canada, Japan and new Europe did a lot of small moves. As we all know, Europe is divided into old Europe and new Europe. The old Europe is still a little independent, and the new Europe especially worships the United States and will be influenced by the United States to provoke China. For example, the speaker of the Czech parliament has visited Taiwan.

The fourth kind of trouble is that the United States exaggerates Chinas threat theory everywhere, which leads to the distortion of Chinas various international behaviors. Therefore, in some developing countries, including African countries, some elites influenced by the United States have a certain attitude of resistance and suspicion towards China.

But the key to these contradictions is Sino US relations. The United States regards China as an adversary and then suppresses us. Sino US relations should have been slipping since 17 years ago. On December 18, 17, the U.S. Department of Defense issued the quadrennial national security strategy report. The report is bipartisan, so it represents the consensus of the American elite. The report is bad. It calls China a revisionist country.. The so-called revisionist countries are countries that challenge the international order led by the United States. Although China has repeatedly stated that it does not have the idea of challenging the order of the United States and does not want to replace the United States, the United States does not believe it, so its positioning of China has changed.

Since this day, the nature of Sino US relations has changed. It used to be both competition and cooperation, but from this time on, it has become the main competition. The United States not only regards China as an adversary strategically, but also acts. Just three months later, on March 22, 18, trump launched a trade war with China in the form of an executive order from the president.

The third is the financial war. Various departments in the United States have listed more than 300 Chinese enterprises or universities in the entity list, and then cut off financial ties.

The fourth is the judicial war, that is, the long arm jurisdiction, and the capture of Meng Wanzhou and many Chinese scholars. Besides China, China also has one belt, one road to interfere with Chinas sovereignty over Taiwan, Hongkong, Xinjiang, Tibet, the East China Sea and the South China Sea. Then, India is pulled up, and one belt and one road is disruptive, and the US and Japan alliance is being pushed in WTO, forcing China to enter the military industry negotiations. I did a total of 15 cards.

I have said many times that Taiwan is a game of three countries: China, China, Taiwan and the United States. Now the problem is not really on the mainland side. The mainland side should be more confident. We think that the time is on our side. We can wait, and the more we wait, the more favorable it will be. The problem is that the two parties are not willing to wait. At present, the right-wing party and the US authorities are constantly violating the bottom line. Can they cut the sausage through the bottom line one day? This possibility should be said more and more. The mainland government does not make decisions in a vacuum. It can make unlimited concessions. The mainland also has a bottom line. The great national righteousness must be upheld, and the pressure of the people is increasing.

In addition, a basic fact that I have repeatedly mentioned in recent years is that we must realize that China has been industrialized, and then realize its military modernization on the basis of industrialization. Industrialization is the most important task of a modern country. We have accomplished it. The military modernization based on this must be very solid. Therefore, a basic fact on the Taiwan issue has changed. It turns out that the mainland does not have enough technical capacity to solve the Taiwan issue. Of course, in terms of both sides of the Taiwan Strait, our mainland has always had an advantage, but if the US factor comes in, the balance will change.

But the latest situation should be that even if the United States intervenes, the mainland can win. That is to say, the most critical physical obstacle to the Taiwan issue has been lifted. Therefore, at this time, it is very dangerous for the US right wing and the DPP authorities to constantly break through the continental limit. If they cant stop at the precipice, they are very likely to start a conflict.

Observers website: behind the cross-strait relations is Sino US relations. Taiwans politicians use the United States to make waves and add a series of Taiwan cards under the extreme pressure of the United States. What are their ultimate goals?

Jin Canrong: lets talk about Taiwan first. In Taiwan, some political figures have ideologized Taiwan independence. Once a person ideologizes something, he will find a way to pursue the goal regardless of reality. When they are rational, they will be afraid of the mainland, but most of the time they are not rational, so they constantly attack the bottom line of the mainland, which is very dangerous.

On the other hand, Taiwan society has changed in a sense. It can be seen from the so-called Taiwan election on January 11 this year that Taiwan society has become green and the basic market of the Kuomintang has been greatly shrunk. The DPP is now in a very stable position, which has strengthened the confidence of Taiwan independence elements. One of the reasons why Taiwan society has come to this day is that the information they get is selective.

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But their consensus is against the facts. Of course, there are some problems within the mainland, but the public opinion base on the Taiwan issue is very solid. In the past 40 years, the mainland has become very pluralistic. People have clear views on many issues, but they are highly consistent on the Taiwan issue. And the problems within the mainland will not affect the ability to solve the Taiwan issue. On the other hand, the United States actually advocates pragmatism and opportunism. Once the mainland really makes up its mind and the United States is not sure of absolute victory, it is likely to give up Taiwan. In addition, I have another point of view, that is, the United States is facing the problem of industrial hollowing out, which makes the national strength a little weak. Half of the countrys GDP depends on finance, which requires national credibility, which makes it unable to afford a local war with big powers. Therefore, in a sense, it is fatal for the United States to intervene and lose. Compared with China, the strategic balance is not the same.

The strategic circles of the United States now attach great importance to the threat of China. Instead of regarding Chinas rise as an opportunity for cooperation, but as a threat, they have decided to exert all-round pressure. Therefore, the willingness to use the Taiwan card is on the rise. Although they also know that there is a huge risk, but they seem to be a bit of gambling. They are gambling that the mainland will not really tear their face out of consideration of the overall situation. Of course, the United States does have a bit of confidence. It looks down upon Chinas ability to industrialize and modernize its military. It thinks that the United States still has absolute advantages. Therefore, the United States is actually quite complicated. I think most strategists recognize Chinas military modernization and worry about the prospect of military conflict, so they will have a bottom line. However, a small number of Americans still have obvious confidence in their military capabilities and are a bit crazy in strategy, so they are in danger of breaking through the bottom line.

Under such circumstances, Taiwan independence and some people in the United States have formed a joint force, thus exerting strong pressure on the situation of the Taiwan issue. Although the mainland has been very rational and tolerant so far, the trend is that it is more and more likely to lead to conflict.

Observer network: have some military exercises conducted by the Chinese military in recent years objectively achieved the effect of maintaining peace and avoiding the other sides misjudgment?

Jin Canrong: first of all, I want to talk about a point of view. Since the United States has a great say, in the past few decades, especially since the end of the cold war, it has successfully shaped the concept that emerging powers are more dangerous than conservative ones. However, judging from novel coronavirus pneumonia response this year and some performance of the Trump administration, the opposite is probably true. It may be more dangerous to be a big country, but the emerging powers can be more calm because of their promising prospects.

Chinas mainland side is facing the diplomatic situation and the severe situation in the Taiwan Strait. Measures are taken: diplomatic communication, cross-strait communication, and of course, military deterrence. In the current grim situation, military deterrence is extremely necessary, and I think it has achieved certain results. Now you can see from Taiwans online forums that the possibility of military unification is increasing, so the fear is rising. Military professionals on the U.S. side should also begin to realize the seriousness of the situation. So a few retired generals have come out to speak recently. China basically solves the Taiwan inroads for three days, and the United States is incapable of action.

What deserves special attention is Rubio. He used to be anti China, but he said in an interview recently that he also knew that there was a bottom line in talking about issues, that is to say, he began to react. Of course, there are still some people who are stubborn. Tsai ing ing Wen recently went to the outer island to inspect and seemed to have made some cruel remarks. Therefore, our military actions are necessary and have begun to produce results. However, we may not be able to draw such a conclusion as to whether our expected goal has been achieved so that the right wing of the United States on both sides and Taiwan independence activists can stop.

In an August episode of Yiyu Daopo, Professor Shen Yi pointed out that Rubio spent a lot of energy on China and made himself a tough political figure in China (screenshot of the program)

Observer: some time ago, the US Department of defense submitted to the Congress the report on Chinas military development, which mentioned that the PLA has surpassed the US military in many aspects. Does this mean that the United States will adjust its positioning and deployment against China militarily?

Jin Canrong: in the past, the senior military officers of the United States were generally very confident. They thought that China was far away from China. Therefore, basically, the description of Chinas military strength depends on what kind of needs it has. If you need money, you should speak hard about China; if you need to pacify your allies, you will make China unbearable. But recently, I think that the more professional military personnel in the United States have begun to realize what I often say, that is, Chinas military modernization is completed on the basis of industrialization. As a result, the understanding of the Chinese military in the United States has gradually tended to conform to reality.

One consequence of being realistic is that the United States is really ready to compete with Chinas big powers. In the past ten years, especially after 9 / 11, the United States focused on the public security war and ignored the competition among big powers. Now the United States has realized that this kind of strategic resource investment is wrong.

Observer: how do you evaluate the leadership of this trump administration? Will their unreliable bring unexpected variables to Sino US relations?

Jin Canrong: indeed, the current governing body is very unique in the history of the United States: the president is a businessman, and the people he uses are often different from those in various departments. Yes, so the president is very strange. He uses more strange people. It is generally believed that their professional quality is poor, but they are also smart people. For example, pompeio graduated from west point, and later went to Harvard. Moreover, when he was at West Point, he got the first grade in his whole grade, and his intelligence was certainly no problem.

Therefore, what they are doing now seems a little illogical to us, and there may be internal political needs.

Observer: are they trying to create a personal device?

(function(){( window.slotbydup=window .slotbydup||[]).push({id:u5811557,container:ssp_ 5811557, async:true }Jin Canrong: Yes. Now the whole American society is populist, or Chinese netizens say the cultural revolution happened in the United States.. At this time, the traditional professionalism will be put aside, and we will say some strange words to cater to the emerging populism. So some Americans speculate that pompeio is now gathering momentum to run for president in 2024. Therefore, it can be said that this group of people are smart people from a personal point of view, but what they do is not up to the standard. This is not to say that they are not intelligent enough, but the political background of the United States has changed, and they want to please some of the original bottom of society. It is hard to say whether this situation will benefit or harm the United States in the end. It may be judged by history. However, from the perspective of common sense, what they do is illogical and should ultimately harm the interests of the United States. Source: observer.com editor in charge: Dai Lili_ NN4994

Jin Canrong: Yes. Now the whole American society is populist, or Chinese netizens say the cultural revolution happened in the United States.. At this time, the traditional professionalism will be put aside, and we will say some strange words to cater to the emerging populism. So some Americans speculate that pompeio is now gathering momentum to run for president in 2024.