Since the market is at the bottom, how will we arrange the last dining market of this year? Shenwan Hongyuan strategy team recently put forward the theme strategy of cycle growth, grasp the present. Based on the fact that cyclical growth is the direction with the minimum short-term resistance, Shen wanhongyuans strategic team believes that the short-term Pro cyclical direction is relatively advantageous, and an important basis is that the exogenous power supporting economic improvement is still strong, and the endogenous power is also beginning to improve. Recently, Shen wanhongyuan repeatedly suggested the structure selection idea of performance digest valuation, and the short-term effect is still good.
Specifically, Shen wanhongyuan suggested that we should focus on:
1. The pattern of supply and demand continued to improve, with a high growth rate of mechanical and electrical equipment in the third quarter;
2. Industrial metals and chemicals, which benefit more from improved investment in manufacturing;
3. After the cyclical boom, fundamentals are reversing the validation of household appliances and cars. Consumer technology core assets may continue to grind to the bottom in the short term, waiting patiently for the denominator logic to improve again.
From Q4, 2019 to Q1, 2020, under the dual influence of the continuous upgrading of Chinas science and technology industry and the global liquidity easing caused by the new crown epidemic, the 5g industrial chain, the new energy vehicle industry chain and pharmaceutical biology have received great attention. In Q2 in 2020, driven by the superposition effect of substantial easing of liquidity and the first repair of domestic demand, public service for consumption, non-ferrous metals and high-end equipment has also become the focus of Starstone investment. From Q3 2020 to Q4 2020, Chinas economic recovery will become the core driving factor of the market, focusing on the adoption of oversupply consumption and pro cyclical growth stocks in cyclical categories, such as consumption, transportation and other industries.
Plate repair just started, low cycle stocks technology opportunities come
According to the investment and Investment Research Department of Lingrui, since the outbreak of the epidemic, the US Federal Reserves release of water has led to an unprecedented increase in the liquidity of the global equity market, which has promoted the rapid decline of market interest rates and the trend of zero interest rates in the European and American markets. As a result, the valuation level of growth stocks represented by pharmaceutical technology has increased significantly, resulting in a bull market for growth stocks. In the first seven months of this year, A-share was a typical bull market of growth stocks, led by the three major industries of health care, daily consumption and information technology, while the three major industries of energy, finance and real estate led the decline.
In recent months, Chinas interest rates have risen instead of falling. The benchmark 10-year Treasury bond interest rate has risen from the lowest 2.5% to more than 3.1%. Moreover, as the growth rate of social finance continues to rise, it means that the credit expansion cycle is still continuing, indicating that interest rates will still tend to rise in the future, which also means that the overvalued value of some growth stock industries has a significant downward risk. In the background of low-end stocks, the recovery is more optimistic.
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Ma Cheng, manager of juze investment fund, said that after nearly half a years restorative rebound in the market, funds, especially institutional funds, have pushed up consumption, big technology, military industry and other sectors. Most of the valuations of these sectors have been pushed to a high level. Without substantial growth in performance, differences in funds have emerged, such as Haitian flavor, Guizhou Maotai and muyuan shares Shares of funds such as the collective fall of the group of profit chips more loose.
This also gives the low has not been how to rise cycle stocks technical opportunities. Since the second and third quarters are mainly the repair market of various sectors, with the effective control of the epidemic situation, the repair of many sectors has just begun. Especially with the concept of entertainment consumption, including film and tourism consumption, which are related to the National Day holiday, these plates are the best time to return to the low level. At the same time, they also overlap the consumption Month activities implemented by the state in concept.
Analysis of private placement technology: A shares will rise at any time after the festival
From a technical point of view, Zhongchen group Xu Shaoxin believes that: the current stock index daily chart is the end of a certain level of 2 waves C, the end of wedge-shaped adjustment, at any time may usher in the end of adjustment rise
Daily chart: nature of adjustment
Weekly chart: rising space in the future
Monthly chart: why does this position need to be adjusted?
According to the formula of K-line breakthrough, generally, there will be 3 K-line within the confirmation trend of 5-day line, then when the big positive line broke through in July, but because the lower moving average did not go well, so the K-line presents the trend of horizontal adjustment. In fact, it is to step back on the may line at the third K line. According to the speed of the line moving up in May, it is just at the closing point before the festival Near. After stepping back on the may line, it tends to continue to rise in October according to the original trend.
Source: Yang Qian, editor in charge of daily economic news_ NF4425