For the post holiday market, from the technical point of view, senior market analyst Wang Ping pointed out that the Shanghai Composite Index has formed a 60, 90 and 120 minute bottom deviation structure; although the Shenzhen composite index has no bottom structure, but the daily KDJ low level is ready to be golden cross, and MACD is about to be golden cross; the gem refers to the low level of MACD and the second golden cross of KDJ; these are the signals that the bottom will become.
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Since the market is at the bottom, how will we arrange the last dining market of this year? Shenwan Hongyuan strategy team recently put forward the theme strategy of cycle growth, grasp the present. Based on the fact that cyclical growth is the direction with the minimum short-term resistance, Shen wanhongyuans strategic team believes that the short-term Pro cyclical direction is relatively advantageous, and an important basis is that the exogenous power supporting economic improvement is still strong, and the endogenous power is also beginning to improve. Recently, Shen wanhongyuan repeatedly suggested the structure selection idea of performance digest valuation, and the short-term effect is still good.
Specifically, Shen wanhongyuan suggested that we should focus on:
1. The pattern of supply and demand continued to improve, with a high growth rate of mechanical and electrical equipment in the third quarter;
2. Industrial metals and chemicals, which benefit more from improved investment in manufacturing;
Plate repair just started, low cycle stocks technology opportunities come
According to the investment and Investment Research Department of Lingrui, since the outbreak of the epidemic, the US Federal Reserves release of water has led to an unprecedented increase in the liquidity of the global equity market, which has promoted the rapid decline of market interest rates and the trend of zero interest rates in the European and American markets. As a result, the valuation level of growth stocks represented by pharmaceutical technology has increased significantly, resulting in a bull market for growth stocks. In the first seven months of this year, A-share was a typical bull market of growth stocks, led by the three major industries of health care, daily consumption and information technology, while the three major industries of energy, finance and real estate led the decline.
In recent months, Chinas interest rates have risen instead of falling. The benchmark 10-year Treasury bond interest rate has risen from the lowest 2.5% to more than 3.1%. Moreover, as the growth rate of social finance continues to rise, it means that the credit expansion cycle is still continuing, indicating that interest rates will still tend to rise in the future, which also means that the overvalued value of some growth stock industries has a significant downward risk. In the background of low-end stocks, the recovery is more optimistic.
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This also gives the low has not been how to rise cycle stocks technical opportunities. Since the second and third quarters are mainly the repair market of various sectors, with the effective control of the epidemic situation, the repair of many sectors has just begun. Especially with the concept of entertainment consumption, including film and tourism consumption, which are related to the National Day holiday, these plates are the best time to return to the low level. At the same time, they also overlap the consumption Month activities implemented by the state in concept.
Analysis of private placement technology: A shares will rise at any time after the festival
From a technical point of view, Zhongchen group Xu Shaoxin believes that: the current stock index daily chart is the end of a certain level of 2 waves C, the end of wedge-shaped adjustment, at any time may usher in the end of adjustment rise
Daily chart: nature of adjustment
From the daily chart of Shanghai stock index, 3458 point adjustment tendency belongs to a certain level of two wave adjustment. At present, it has been adjusted to the end structure, and there is a sign of bottoming up and ushering in the end of adjustment at this position.
Weekly chart: rising space in the future
The optimistic point assumes that the adjustment at the beginning of the 3458 point is viewed from the weekly chart, which is temporarily defined as C2 wave adjustment. Currently adjusting for eleventh weeks, usually 13 weeks is an important time window, so the market will rise at the latest 10 months in mid 10 and begin to rise at the weekly level C3 wave.
Monthly chart: why does this position need to be adjusted?
Source: Yang Qian, editor in charge of daily economic news_ NF4425