There were a lot of people looking at houses in September, but the list of transactions was not as much as that of the previous two months. A real estate agent in Beijings Xicheng District is still reviewing the wave of home buying before the end of July.
Previously, Xicheng District of Beijing stipulated that, after July 31, 2020, all school-age children who purchased houses and obtained housing property right certificates in Xicheng District will enroll in the school district or adjacent school districts in the form of multi school division when they apply for admission to primary school. Subsequently, Beijing Xicheng District property market set off a wave of buying houses.
A real estate agency in Beijing. Photo by Peng Jingru
Now, although there are more new buyers, their needs are not so urgent. The clients I keep in touch with are all preparing to buy a house in Xicheng for their childrens schooling. However, several of them said they still want to make a comparison. They are not in a hurry to buy. The above intermediary said that before many parents in order to catch the last bus, so the turnover is quite good.
An intermediary in Haidian District of Beijing also has the same feeling: recently, we really only see and dont buy more, but the people who look at the house do have the demand to buy a house, so its only a matter of time to start.
The phenomenon of not buying a house is not only seen in Beijing. According to the data released by the shell Research Institute on September 28, 2019 as the base period, the subscription ratio index of new houses in 100 cities in China increased significantly in September. Pan Hao, a senior analyst at Shell Research Institute, explained that the higher the index is, the more difficult it is to trade. In other words, he has taken a large number of customers, but none of them has been closed.
There are some fluctuations in this index in the early stage. When we counted last week (the third week of September), the value rose very much, mainly because of the wait-and-see mood before the festival. Therefore, we are looking forward to whether the real estate enterprises will have more promotional efforts during the 11 period. Pan Hao said.
New housing supply of real estate enterprises starts replenishment mode
Jinjiu real estate market only window shopping? Is there anyone who chop hands to buy a house at this time?
There are still some, but the data is not warm.
According to the monitoring of Shell Research Institute, the total number of new housing transactions in 66 cities increased by 2.0% year-on-year and 0.8% month on month in the third quarter. Since July, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Chengdu and other cities have introduced regulation and upgrading policies, mainly to crack down on real estate speculation, prevent the market from golden nine silver ten fluctuations, and the turnover fell in September, so it failed to drive the data of the third quarter to rise rapidly.
Photo: a residential building in Hangzhou. Photo by Guo Qiyu
Compared with the new house, the performance of second-hand housing is more bleak.
In the 38th week (September 14-20), the overall second-hand housing market in key cities continued to cool down, with a 9% month on month decrease in transactions. Among the 18 cities that Shell Research Institute focuses on, 14 cities have a month on month decline in real transactions of second-hand houses, and Langfang, Yantai, Qingdao and other cities have a month on month decrease of more than 10%. Among the first tier cities, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen have been restored at a low level, while Guangzhous high level has fallen.
Why does this happen? Zhang Bo, President of the branch of anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, told zhongxin.com that the tightening of the overall financing level of real estate has a deeper impact on the market, which will further raise the threshold of more than two sets of buyers, and play an obvious suppression role in investment demand.
The real estate companies rush to sell their real estate in August, coupled with the intensive regulatory policies issued from the end of August to the beginning of September, as well as the lack of a consumption node in the national day and Mid Autumn Festival, leading to the lack of golden nine in the property market Pan Hao analysis said.
But the real estate enterprises did not seem to be discouraged, but opened the replenishment mode.
In the golden nine silver ten stage of the property market, the potential demand for house purchase is still relatively large, and the control of pre-sale certificates in various regions is also less, so developers still have relatively high expectations for the transactions in the real estate market. Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, told chinanews.com that although the local policies have become stricter, pre-sale is still relatively loose, including in Beijing and Shenzhen.
According to the statistics of leyoujia Research Center, in August, 17 new projects in Shenzhen were approved for pre-sale, including 14 residential projects in Shenzhen Shantou cooperation zone, with 9600 units of housing supply. The supply in August alone was more than that in the whole first half of the year. In September, more than 20 new projects were launched in Shenzhen.
Real estate enterprises are full of strength, will buyers give the property market silver ten a little thin?
From the perspective of the situation, the customer base is guaranteed, and the market transaction in the next two weeks and four weeks should be predictable. Pan Hao believes that the National Day golden week is a good time. Everyone has time to see the house and sign a contract during the holiday, so the sales data in October will be reflected.
In addition, the popularity of second-hand housing in Beijing and Shanghai increased by more than 30% year-on-year, while that of Chengdu, Xian and Changsha increased by more than 10%.
Data map: a real estate project attracts many buyers to taofang. Photo by Tang Yanjun, China News Agency
Just demand will become a new driving force for the market. According to the law of seasonal rotation of demand, at the beginning of the year, just need to leverage the market, then to improve the rotation, by the end of the year, the demand for improvement will release weakness, and the proportion of rigid demand will rise. According to the shell Research Institute, judging from the distribution of second-hand housing belts, since August, the proportion of customers who have seen rigid demand houses below 90 square meters has stopped falling, and the demand in the fourth quarter is gradually inclined to the rigid demand. As for housing prices, Yan Yuejin believes that the current Chinese real estate market has entered the traditional golden nine silver ten stage, with the increase of real estate supply and the obvious acceleration of promotion rhythm. From this point of view, there is still the possibility of further cooling house prices. For the real estate enterprises, the initiative to reduce the price and give the buyer interest can speed up the destocking of the project, which will help to promote the growth of performance and the cooling of house prices in related cities. Super golden week has opened. Have you been to the house? Window shopping or chop hands immediately? Extended reading double Festival Holiday Express is too hard: hairy crabs take special planes to get moon cakes at home, market value soars by 10 trillion yuan, all into these companies bowls! Have you ever bought one? Chatting about stocks becomes chatting about fund funds flying into ordinary peoples homes_ NF4425
Just demand will become a new driving force for the market. According to the law of seasonal rotation of demand, at the beginning of the year, just need to leverage the market, then to improve the rotation, by the end of the year, the demand for improvement will release weakness, and the proportion of rigid demand will rise. According to the shell Research Institute, judging from the distribution of second-hand housing belts, since August, the proportion of customers who have seen rigid demand houses below 90 square meters has stopped falling, and the demand in the fourth quarter is gradually inclined to the rigid demand.
Super golden week has opened. Have you been to the house? Window shopping or chop hands immediately?