What do financial market analysts think of Trumps diagnosis of shock?

category:Finance
 What do financial market analysts think of Trumps diagnosis of shock?


From the industry point of view, the selling of technology stocks was the first to bear the brunt, with Apples share price falling by 3.77 U.S. dollars, or 3.2%; Adobes share price was down by 20.52 dollars, or 4.1%.

Crude oil futures prices also fell sharply on the 2nd, with WTI crude oil futures down $1.67, or 4.3%, to $37.05 a barrel, the lowest closing price since September 8.

Risk aversion rose significantly, with the US dollar, Japanese yen and Swiss Franc rising one after another. But gold futures prices continued to fall on the 2nd. Gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $8.70, or 0.5%, to $1907.60 an ounce. December silver futures also fell 23 cents, or 0.9%, to $24.029 an ounce.

The last time the controversy in the general election affected the stock market was in 2000, when George W. Bush and his rival Al Gore were locked up for nearly a month because of the close votes in Florida. The S & P 500 index fell by about 12% from the day of the election to December 20.

Analysts generally believe that the markets strong reaction to the news of Trumps diagnosis is more like a knee jerk reaction. In the future, the focus of the market will be on how Trumps illness will affect the election. The following are the views of domestic and foreign research institutions.

Wall Street securities research firm fundstrat: Trumps diagnosis may help us control the epidemic and restore market confidence

Tom Lee, chief executive of fundstrat, said Mr Trumps diagnosis at a sensitive time near the November election would inevitably lead to market uncertainty. But in the long run, this may not be without a positive side for the stock market.

The most direct impact is that it will promote the awareness of the U.S. people to prevent and control the epidemic, especially those who are skeptical about the measures such as wearing masks and keeping social distance. This will help the United States control the epidemic and help restart the economy.

Moreover, if trump can recover quickly, it will boost public confidence in the level of American health care. US Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell has repeatedly said that unless there is an effective treatment or vaccine, it is difficult to achieve a comprehensive economic recovery.

Jeffrey investment bank: the market should not panic

The novel coronavirus pneumonia global stock strategist Sean Darby (SeanDarby) wrote in 2 report that the stock markets selling moves were extreme, and there were precedents of new leaders infection of new crown pneumonia. For example, British Prime Minister Johnson, the probability of being postponed was not high.

CITIC Securities: Trumps diagnosis is time sensitive and may drag down the progress of economic restart

Trump has confirmed that it may increase the pressure on the Republican election. On the one hand, American voters do not vote sympathy because the president is ill. Before this, trump repeatedly refused to wear a mask, and even ridiculed Bidens behavior in the first round of debate, so his illness is more likely to be considered self inflicted; on the other hand, because trump needs to receive two weeks of isolation treatment, he will certainly miss the next rally in important swing States, which may also affect the support rate of the Republican Party.

The presidents diagnosis could also slow the pace of economic restart. Further increase of market uncertainty will certainly suppress market sentiment in the short term; on the other hand, if the Democratic Party can take advantage of this opportunity to launch a higher level of fiscal stimulus plan, it will also form a certain support for the market.

Huatai futures macro: the fundamental reason of market fluctuation is that the recovery is not smooth

During the spread of novel coronavirus pneumonia between Trump and his wife, the US stock index and the FTSE A50 index were under pressure; Brent crude oil price fell below the US $40 mark, and once dropped to $38.79; but LME copper rose against the trend, rose more than 2%; soybean also showed a slight rise; gold remained relatively stable. It is worth noting that there is obvious differentiation between commodity varieties, which shows that the market is relatively rational in the face of sudden impulsive events.

Trumps infection with the new crown is only the trigger factor of market adjustment, and the deep level is that the short-term economic recovery of the United States is less than expected. Market concerns about the approval of the Republican controlled Senate are also reflected at the transaction level. In Europe, the continued rise of the second outbreak in autumn has also cast a shadow on the short-term global economic recovery.

If trump succeeds in his recovery in the next two weeks, his approval rating may increase. The latest news shows that Trumps new crown symptoms are relatively mild, with symptoms similar to a cold, and its recovery probability is relatively large, which will be conducive to the rebound of stock indexes and commodities. In addition, we also need to be alert to Bidens abnormal physical conditions, and guard against the second shock of the market.

Dongwu macro: trump confirmed the new crown, and October surprise was staged again

The so-called October surprise refers to a sudden event that may change the minds of voters and affect the election results one month before the election. Because October surprise often contains negative news about the candidates, it is easy for voters to change their votes. However, historically speaking, there are not a few presidents who have been affected by the negative news in the October surprise campaign. In this years US election, the competition between the two parties has become increasingly fierce, and both parties have not yet shown an overwhelming advantage. If there is a October surprise, this years election results may be even more confusing. From the performance of the U.S. stock market before and after several October surprise in history, the change of American stock price after the event did not present a unified law. However, after the corresponding election, the change of US stock price shows a certain rule: if the winner of the election is the beneficiary of October surprise, then the US stock market will rise all the way after the election; if the winner of the election is the loser of October surprise, then the US stock market will continue to fall after the election. Source: interface news editor: Yang Qian_ NF4425

The so-called October surprise refers to a sudden event that may change the minds of voters and affect the election results one month before the election. Because October surprise often contains negative news about the candidates, it is easy for voters to change their votes. However, historically speaking, there are not a few presidents who have been affected by the negative news in the October surprise campaign.

In this years US election, the competition between the two parties has become increasingly fierce, and both parties have not yet shown an overwhelming advantage. If there is a October surprise, this years election results may be even more confusing.

From the performance of the U.S. stock market before and after several October surprise in history, the change of American stock price after the event did not present a unified law. However, after the corresponding election, the change of US stock price shows a certain rule: if the winner of the election is the beneficiary of October surprise, then the US stock market will rise all the way after the election; if the winner of the election is the loser of October surprise, then the US stock market will continue to fall after the election.