Why are Russia and Turkey so active in the decisive battle between the nations of Transcaucasia?

category:Military
 Why are Russia and Turkey so active in the decisive battle between the nations of Transcaucasia?


This week, the sudden outbreak and rapid expansion of the full-scale conflict between Armenian and Azerbaijani has undoubtedly become the worlds military news. Turkey, as a great power outside the region of the Transcaucasia region, invited to intervene in the conflict, has raised the possible consequences and impact of this conflict to a higher level.

On September 27 local time, Armenian and Azerbaijani launched a large-scale exchange of fire along the border between the two countries long-standing territorial disputes. At the same time, they used various public opinions to accuse each other of breaking the cease-fire agreement, and at the same time released various evidences claiming that they had dealt a heavy blow to each other in the fighting.

The Armenian army showed the destroyed Azerbaijani T-90 main battle tank, indicating that Azerbaijan has put the best armored forces in the area

As an area inhabited by Armenians in history but belonging to Azerbaijani in terms of administrative planning, Naka region once caused contradictions and even conflicts between the two participating republics during the Soviet Union period. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the two countries fought fiercely around this area in the early 1990s, which established the basic actual control and ownership of the current Naka region Because of the genocide and the substantial damage to Azerbaijani sovereignty, the source of hatred between the two countries has been buried.

Judging from the strength of the two sides, there is no doubt that Azerbaijan has more sufficient reasons to start than Armenia. This can even be understood as a long-term and well prepared operation by Azerbaijan aimed at breaking the long-standing status quo in the Armenian Azerbaijani conflict area since the armistice of 1994. The ultimate goal of Azerbaijan, of course, is to restore its substantial control over the Naka region in the Soviet era, or even go further to change Naka from an autonomous prefecture to an ordinary Azerbaijani region.

Unlike India and Pakistan, which have long exchanged short-term fire on a small scale, or similar to the large-scale use of tribal militia and pickup trucks in several countries in North Africa or the Middle East, as the main form of exchange of fire, although the exchange of fire between the Armenian and Azerbaijani armies has also experienced a stage of gradual escalation, as the author has summarized before, the two countries armed forces have experienced a stage of gradual escalation The war shows the distinct characteristics of regularization, low technology and all-round war.

As a member Republic of the Soviet Union, the weapons and equipment used by the two countries are mainly Soviet made equipment, and the overall level of their mechanized forces is equivalent to the main motorized infantry units equipped with T-72 series main battle tanks, BMP-2 infantry combat vehicles and all kinds of traction and self-propelled guns in the 1980s. The organization and training of the two armies are also the same as that of the Soviet army; in the battle, such as three car antitank The coordinated cooperation between the platoon and mechanized infantry, the March and deployment of infantry chariot companies, the use of firepower to carry out attacks, suppressions and pursuit and annihilation operations, as well as the mechanized vehicle shelters built by both sides in the front and the use of long-range rockets to launch fire attacks on the enemys rear, all reveal the characteristics of the regular operations of the Soviet Russian army.

This kind of cooperation, which was usually seen only in Russian military exercises, is now being carried out in the same way on the battlefield

In terms of scale, the main combat areas of the two countries are on the border of the Naka region. On one hand, the Armenian army and the so-called Naka regional armed forces are the Armenian troops stationed in Naka, and the other is the Azerbaijani army which is likely to receive direct support from the Turkish army. Although the two countries have begun to mobilize, at present, the troops on the battlefield are still dominated by the standing armies of the two countries. Before the mobilization, the total forces of both sides were around 70000, which was similar to a synthetic group army in the Soviet era.

However, compared with the situation of fierce fighting in the Middle East and other places with extremely low casualties, as two countries with only tens of thousands of troops, the intensity of fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani is quite high. After about a week of fighting, both sides claimed that the results of shooting down had risen rapidly. Both sides claimed to have annihilated thousands of opponents living forces, destroyed hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles (enough to arm 2-3 motorized infantry regiments), and the total scale of UAVs and other aircraft they claimed to destroy reached nearly 100.

Although the results of such a battle need to boast, from the videos of a large number of UAVs destroying targets and battlefield photos of various battle damage and captured equipment released by both sides, even if the water is squeezed out, the two sides may have lost at least one motorized infantry regiments combat effectiveness in the conflict. From the perspective of tanks, infantry vehicles, large caliber guns, rockets and even ballistic missiles, the conflict has already used all kinds of conventional arsenals of the two armies, and is completely a high-intensity all-round war.

Compared with the large-scale ground equipment of the two armies, the air power of both armies is not strong. The only bright spot is that several batches of UAVs equipped by the two armies, especially the TB-2 observation and strike integrated UAV made in Turkey equipped by Azerbaijani equipment, used anti tank missiles in this conflict and destroyed the permits including tank armored vehicles, short-range air defense missiles and even S-300 air defense missile radar More Armenian technical equipment. Since this is the first time that the observation and strike integrated UAV has been put into such a large-scale battle between the two armies, the TB-2 UAV is really out of the limelight.

The use of drones by the Azerbaijani side to attack Armenian equipment has almost become a symbol of the conflict, and many military observers with hindsight exclaim that the era of UAVs is coming

Although the use of observation and strike integrated UAV is far from the high-tech war defined by the first-class military powers such as China and the United States, the UAV operations of both sides have not been closely integrated with their ground operations. Whats more, as a kind of relatively difficult to find tactical attack aircraft, carrying out pure forward precision attack has not improved the combat effectiveness of both sides in all aspects.

However, due to the fact that Armenian is equipped with Soviet made field air defense weapons during the cold war, it lacks the ability to detect such low and slow targets, and long-range air defense missiles such as S-300 are not suitable for attacking such targets. Although the losses are not small, the UAV combat results of Azerbaijan are quite good, and the weakening of anti-aircraft weapons of Armenian army has even promoted Azerbaijan to a certain extent The action of some fighters in Baijiang. However, today, the large caliber towed artillery, self-propelled gun and rocket launcher of the two armies are all in well-designed fortifications for fixed firing. Although Azerbaijan advances forward and occupies several villages, the two armies basically exchange fire along the border line of Naka region.

The war lasted for more than a week. Although the Armenian side is not small in terms of casualties caused by various UAVs, the overall situation of the two sides is still in a stalemate state. Due to the inevitable fog of war, the credibility of the news released by both countries is questionable in the absence of actual evidence.

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At present, the Azerbaijani side has invested in long-range weapons, including 203 mm large caliber howitzers and 300 mm long-range rocket guns. The scope of attack on the Armenian side has also expanded from merely attacking military targets to civilian facilities such as residential areas. There is no concrete evidence that the Armenian long-range rocket launcher has been put into use for the time being, but Azerbaijan accuses the opposite side of using the dot-u short-range ballistic missile, while the Russian side, which is relatively Pro Armenian, claims that Azerbaijan has launched Israel made Lora missile, plus the Armenian official threat to use it once Turkey sends out air forceu201c As you can imagine, it is only a matter of time before such more powerful weapons are put into the battlefield.

The Azerbaijani side has long launched long-range rockets and launched attacks on civilian facilities on the Armenian side, and the war is clearly not less brutal because of the use of UAVs

Although in the long run, it is more difficult for Armenian to obtain materials and weapons from outside than Azerbaijan, and it may also face the situation of oil exhaustion and light exhaustion as the fighting continues. However, given that the economic foundation of Azerbaijan is not strong, such a long-term war of attrition is not a good choice. If the civil war between Armenian and Azerbaijani is to undergo a major change in a short period of time, the power of interference from countries outside the region is undoubtedly of great importance.

For the disputes in the Transcaucasia region, although the United States once fanned the flames in the Russian Georgia war in 2008, and even provided a lot of convenience for Georgia to challenge Russia, the US general election is approaching, which is not a good time for the US government to do things. In addition, the current US President trump was not interested in the disputes in this geographical knowledge super area, and now he is still under investigation It is unlikely that the new coronavirus will be involved in this conflict. However, Turkey, as a neighbor of Armenian and Azerbaijani countries, has recently been quite active in intervening in peripheral affairs, which is undoubtedly another attitude.

Turkey is undoubtedly on the Azerbaijani side between the two countries, where there is a relationship between the two countries with a common religious belief and the long-standing bad relations between Turkey and Armenia. The Armenian genocide, which originated from the first World War, made it difficult to resolve the century old feud between the two peoples, and the enemy of the enemy is a friend, which made Turkey very concerned about its support to Azerbaijan.

Take Turkeys TB-2 UAV, which was brilliant in the conflict. Considering that Azerbaijan did not announce considering purchasing this type of aircraft until June this year, it has been able to kill and kill with UAVs skillfully in September. This speed beyond the ordinary commercial transaction shows that Turkey not only provides a green channel for taking goods, but also directly delivers goods to the door and even operates The Turkish army of drones also provided them.

Although the performance of Turkeys UAV is only mediocre, it is difficult to master the use of such equipment in three months

This kind of semi direct military intervention should not only pay attention to the actual effect, but also make the small-scale troops who quietly participate in the war play the role of four Liang Qian Jin and have a critical impact on the war situation in a small scale; at the same time, it should prevent the wind leak and avoid the news of military intervention from producing other unpredictable negative effects.

In this conflict between Armenian and Azerbaijani, the debate about whether the Turkish air force will participate in the exhibition reflects this point: on September 29, Susan stepanian, the press secretary of the Armenian Ministry of defense, announced on social media that the Turkish air force had launched F-16 fighters on Azerbaijani territory, invaded the territory of the Republic of Armenian for up to 60 kilometers, and shot down the Armenian air force in yameni Su-25 attack aircraft of Asian air force.

After the news came out, Turkey denied this situation for the first time. Azerbaijan also said that the soviet-25 attack plane of the second army was shot down by its own MiG-29 fighter plane. As a result, the next day, the Armenian Ministry of defense once again accused the Turkish military command of coordinating the implementation of air strikes by Azerbaijani troops in the Naka area. Suzanne said Turkish officers had direct control of Azerbaijani military aircraft operations over the Armenian border via an e-7t AWACS aircraft. Although Turkey and Azerbaijan have not responded, it is clear that such silence will not last long if Turkeys direct access to the fighting comes true.

Turkeys such caution clearly shows that although it is concerned about the situation in the Transcaucasia, it is also afraid of direct intervention by other extraterritorial forces, that is, Russia.

In order to fulfill the obligations of CIS, the Russian army stationed a Russian ground force of about 5000 people and a small-scale land aviation force with general helicopters as the main force in two military bases in Armenian territory. Although the units own combat capability may not be outstanding, with the existence of this military base, Russia can theoretically have sufficient reasons to maintain the air transport channel to Armenian. As for the specific materials transported in the channel and who is the end-user of the materials, it is obviously not enough for outsiders. In other words, considering the worse external support environment for Armenian army compared with that of Azerbaijan, this air supply line for Russian army can become the lifeline for replenishing arms and ammunition for Armenian army as long as Russia is willing.

Before the outbreak of the conflict, Russia had to bypass Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran in its routine airlift route to Armenian. If Russia wants to use this air route to support Armenian in wartime, it undoubtedly needs a lot of common positions in diplomatic channels

But the question is, is Russia really going to give full support to Armenia, as the outside world thinks? Although both Russia and Armenian belong to Christianity in terms of religious beliefs, they are not the same in specific sects. Whats more, the situation that Christianity supports another country is quite rare in todays international community.

The close relationship between Russia and Armenian after the cold war is more due to the lack of strategic support between the two countries. After the disintegration and independence of the Soviet Union, Georgia became hostile to Russia because of the breakup of the Soviet Union; Azerbaijan turned to Turkey, Russias rival in this region; Russia, which wants to maintain its own existence in the Transcaucasia, has little choice but to approach with Armenian. As far as Armenian is concerned, when Azerbaijan and Turkey are united, no matter what kind of unhappiness Armenians and Russians have had in the Soviet era, Russia, which needs the support of foreign powers, is also almost the only choice for Armenian.

This kind of relationship, which is somewhat like a dew couple, is reflected in the fact that although Russia actively mediates and calls for a cease-fire, compared with Turkeys active efforts to provide various direct and indirect military assistance to Azerbaijan, Russias support seems to be mainly at the level of lip service but not actual. This is undoubtedly a choice more in line with Russias interests. For Russia, the ideal situation is to make use of its military and political conditions to force Azerbaijan to end its military operations against Armenian as soon as possible, and prohibit Turkey from participating in the relevant political process as a mediator.

(function(){( window.slotbydup=window .slotbydup||[]).push({id:u5811557,container:ssp_ 5811557, async:true });})(); If Azerbaijan, with the support of Turkey, fully realizes its expected combat objectives, this military action will become a serious crisis in Russias military diplomacy, the diplomatic line of Russias long-term balanced status quo in the Caucasus will be shaken, and the credibility of the traditional Russian military diplomatic means of the collective security organization will also be damaged. Turkey, on the other hand, can take advantage of this opportunity to open up another new battlefield of the game with Russia and use this region to exert additional pressure on Russia. This article is the exclusive contribution of the observer. The content of the article is the authors personal view, which does not represent the platform view. Without authorization, it can not be reproduced, otherwise legal responsibility will be investigated. Pay close attention to guanchacn, the wechat of observer network, and read interesting articles every day. Source: observer.com editor in charge: Yao Wenguang_ NN1682

If Azerbaijan, with the support of Turkey, fully realizes its expected combat objectives, this military action will become a serious crisis in Russias military diplomacy, the diplomatic line of Russias long-term balanced status quo in the Caucasus will be shaken, and the credibility of the traditional Russian military diplomatic means of the collective security organization will also be damaged. Turkey, on the other hand, can take advantage of this opportunity to open up another new battlefield of the game with Russia and use this region to exert additional pressure on Russia.

This article is the exclusive contribution of the observer. The content of the article is the authors personal view, which does not represent the platform view. Without authorization, it can not be reproduced, otherwise legal responsibility will be investigated. Pay close attention to guanchacn, the wechat of observer network, and read interesting articles every day.