CICC strategy: possible scenarios and influence deduction after Trumps diagnosis

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 CICC strategy: possible scenarios and influence deduction after Trumps diagnosis


Analysts pointed out that the existing information is not enough to help us make an accurate judgment, and there is a possibility that the final result will not have much impact on the election and the market in retrospect; but it is certain that this will further increase the uncertainty of the path, that is, the increase of volatility or the odds ratio of different situations. If the current diagnosis is correct, analysts will deduce the future evolution for investors reference.

1) If the disease is not serious, can still exercise presidential functions, and after a period of isolation and treatment, then the overall impact will not be great, may be limited to a short period of time can not participate in a series of election campaign; even, its image of infection and recovery may even benefit him politically, similar to the previous British Prime Minister Johnson and the Brazilian president Bosonalo infection and then recovery.

On the whole, the severity of the second round of the epidemic in the United States and Europe is much lower than that in the first round from March to April. The proportion of new deaths in the newly diagnosed cases is only 2% or even lower, far lower than the peak of 8-9% in the peak period from March to April. This is related to the fact that the majority of infected people in the second wave of epidemic are young people, which may also indicate that the toxicity of the new outbreak is gradually decreasing. However, the effect of new coronavirus on the elderly will be nonlinear amplification. According to the CDC research statistics of the United States Centers for Disease Control and prevention, the hospitalization rate of the elderly aged 65-74 is five times that of the young people aged 18-29, and the mortality rate is as high as 90 times; if it is the elderly aged 75-84, the hospitalization rate and mortality rate will rise to 8 times and 220 times. In fact, eight out of every 10 deaths in the United States are over 65 years old.

So in the next two weeks, the severity of Trumps illness and the speed of recovery will be key. If the patient is seriously ill and temporarily incapacitated (referring to British Prime Minister Johnson once entered the ICU), according to the 25th amendment of the constitution, it may be necessary to temporarily transfer the presidential power to Vice President burns and recover after recovery (since the 25th amendment came into effect in 1967, there have been only three times, one for Reagan and two times for George W. Bush) Colonoscopy temporarily transfers power). But it is more critical. However, if the patient is seriously ill and cant recover from the election day, it may affect the voters confidence in whether their physical condition can smoothly assume the functions of president, and then affect the election. After all, this time point is too close.

In more extreme cases, if it is too serious to continue to run for election, how the candidates decide will bring more variables to the general election and policy prospects.

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