Traditional infrastructure ushers in a new cycle? 2 trillion net investment comes, steel enterprises open full power

category:Finance
 Traditional infrastructure ushers in a new cycle? 2 trillion net investment comes, steel enterprises open full power


In the next quarter, fiscal spending is expected to accelerate, and the agency estimates that the total financial expenditure will bring about 1.5 trillion to 2 trillion yuan of net investment. According to the balance sheet data of the Central Bank of China, government deposits reached 4.8 trillion yuan in August, which was at the highest level in history.

With the continuous increase of financial expenditure, the booming market of traditional infrastructure construction is likely to continue. At present, market institutions generally predict that crude steel production will reach more than 1 billion tons, while iron ore import will be close to 1.2 billion tons, both reaching a record high.

In August, the daily output of crude steel was 3.06 million tons, second only to new infrastructure

According to the latest data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to August this year, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry ranked second in the industry above Designated Size with an accumulative growth rate of 4.8%, only lower than that of computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries.

Obviously, since this year, the new infrastructure has been full of fire, but the traditional infrastructure is also very popular! Benefited from the impact of traditional infrastructure, black steel industry chain enterprises have increased horsepower production. Statistics show that Chinas total output of pig iron and crude steel was 589.4 million tons and 688.89 million tons respectively from January to August, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and 3.7%; Chinas steel production in the same period was 844.69 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%.

In August, Chinas crude steel output was 94.85 million tons, with an average daily crude steel output of 3.06 million tons, which remained above 3 million tons for three consecutive months, setting a record high. From January to August, Chinas average daily output of crude steel is 2.823 million tons. According to this value, Chinas crude steel output in 2020 may reach more than 1.03 billion tons, a new record and a historic breakthrough.

At the same time, exports shrank sharply. In August, Chinas steel exports decreased significantly by 26.5% to 3.678 million tons on a year-on-year basis, and also decreased by 11.9% month on month, reaching a low point since February 2012 (3.39 million tons). From January to August, China exported 36.557 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%.

In terms of profits, from the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the profit growth of the steel industry in August was also very rapid. In August, the profit of iron and steel industry increased by 68.3%, accelerating by 46.2%. The profit of the whole raw material manufacturing industry increased by 32.5%, 17.8 percentage points faster than that in July, and the profit of industries above designated size increased by 6.7 percentage points.

Import of raw materials soars, coke and iron ore import scale will set a record

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to August, China imported 1.542 million tons of coke, a year-on-year increase of 1.360 million tons, an increase of 747.3%. Among them, 205000 tons of coke were imported in August, 409000 tons in July and 220000 tons in June. However, the year-on-year data are all multiple growth, 14 times in June and 6.6 times in July.

Statistics show that the import volume of coke was almost zero before 2019. From the second half of that year, the import volume of coke began to climb. In October 2019, the import volume exceeded the 100000 tons mark for the first time. In 2020, the import volume of Coke will rise sharply. In June, the import volume of Coke will exceed 200000 tons. In July, the number will increase by 86.09%, reaching a historical high of 409000 tons.

Coke export continued to shrink sharply. In August, the export of coke was 140000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 68.9% and a month on month decrease of 64.1%. From January to August of 2020, the total export of coke in China was 2.29 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 52.1%.

Statistics show that since August 14, Chinas iron ore import price (62% grade) broke through the 120 US dollars / ton mark on August 14, the price continued to run at a high level, reaching the highest level since the beginning of this year of 127.32 US dollars / ton on September 15, an increase of more than 60% compared with the low of $79.53/ton since 2020. Of course, it is worth noting that in addition to coke and iron ore, copper and aluminum and other raw materials were also imported in July and August. In August, China imported 429.464 tons of aluminum, the second consecutive month as a net importer of aluminum, the highest level in 11 years, with imports increasing 8 times year on year. Prior to that, the import volume of aluminum products in July was 391300 tons, an increase of 570% year-on-year, making it the largest import volume since April 2009. In the copper market, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper materials in August was about 668000 tons, an increase of 67.1% year-on-year. In July, imports hit a record high. From January to August, the total import volume was 2.952 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 37.66%. Source: securities companies China editor: Yang Qian_ NF4425

Statistics show that since August 14, Chinas iron ore import price (62% grade) broke through the 120 US dollars / ton mark on August 14, the price continued to run at a high level, reaching the highest level since the beginning of this year of 127.32 US dollars / ton on September 15, an increase of more than 60% compared with the low of $79.53/ton since 2020.

Of course, it is worth noting that in addition to coke and iron ore, copper and aluminum and other raw materials were also imported in July and August. In August, China imported 429.464 tons of aluminum, the second consecutive month as a net importer of aluminum, the highest level in 11 years, with imports increasing 8 times year on year. Prior to that, the import volume of aluminum products in July was 391300 tons, an increase of 570% year-on-year, making it the largest import volume since April 2009.

In the copper market, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper materials in August was about 668000 tons, an increase of 67.1% year-on-year. In July, imports hit a record high. From January to August, the total import volume was 2.952 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 37.66%.