In the next fourth quarter, fiscal expenditure is expected to accelerate, and institutions estimate that fiscal expenditure will bring about a total of 1.5-2 trillion yuan of net investment. According to the central banks balance sheet data, government deposits reached 4.8 trillion yuan in August, the highest level in history.
With the continuous increase of financial expenditure, the booming market of traditional infrastructure construction is likely to continue. At present, market institutions generally predict that crude steel production will reach more than 1 billion tons, while iron ore import will be close to 1.2 billion tons, both reaching a record high.
In August, the daily output of crude steel was 3.06 million tons, second only to new infrastructure
According to the latest data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to August this year, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry ranked second in the industry above Designated Size with an accumulative growth rate of 4.8%, only lower than that of computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries.
In August of a single month, according to the statistics of 41 major industries of the National Bureau of statistics, Chinas ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry increased by 9.2% in August, second only to 15.1% of the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, and 10.9% of the general equipment manufacturing industry, ranking third, higher than the 8.7% of the computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries.
Obviously, since this year, the new infrastructure has been full of fire, but the traditional infrastructure is also very popular! Benefited from the impact of traditional infrastructure, black steel industry chain enterprises have increased horsepower production. Statistics show that Chinas total output of pig iron and crude steel was 589.4 million tons and 688.89 million tons respectively from January to August, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and 3.7%; Chinas steel production in the same period was 844.69 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%.
In August, Chinas crude steel output was 94.85 million tons, with an average daily crude steel output of 3.06 million tons, which remained above 3 million tons for three consecutive months, setting a record high. From January to August, Chinas average daily output of crude steel is 2.823 million tons. According to this value, Chinas crude steel output in 2020 may reach more than 1.03 billion tons, a new record and a historic breakthrough.
Export shrank by 26%, import soared by 130%, and steel industry profit increased by 68%
It is worth noting that the domestic crude steel daily output for three consecutive months has reached a record high, but it still fails to fully meet the domestic demand, and the import scale is still rising. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 7, China imported 2.24 million tons of steel in August, up nearly 130% year on year. In July, China imported 2.066 million tons of steel, a 10-year high, up 210%. From January to August, China imported 12.189 million tons of steel, up 59.6% year on year.
At the same time, exports shrank sharply. In August, Chinas steel exports decreased significantly by 26.5% to 3.678 million tons on a year-on-year basis, and also decreased by 11.9% month on month, reaching a low point since February 2012 (3.39 million tons). From January to August, China exported 36.557 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%.
In this way, exports shrank by 26%, imports soared by 130%, and domestic production reached a record high for three consecutive months. The demand market for steel materials is really fierce! It is estimated that the annual consumption of steel will reach about 1 billion tons in 2020.
In terms of profits, from the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the profit growth of the steel industry in August was also very rapid. In August, the profit of iron and steel industry increased by 68.3%, accelerating by 46.2%. The profit of the whole raw material manufacturing industry increased by 32.5%, 17.8 percentage points faster than that in July, and the profit of industries above designated size increased by 6.7 percentage points.
Import of raw materials soars, coke and iron ore import scale will set a record
In terms of raw materials for the iron and steel industry, imports of coke and iron ore have soared, especially coke. China has shifted from a net exporter to a net importer, and the import growth reached 7.4 times in the first eight months of this year.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to August, China imported 1.542 million tons of coke, a year-on-year increase of 1.360 million tons, an increase of 747.3%. Among them, 205000 tons of coke were imported in August, 409000 tons in July and 220000 tons in June. However, the year-on-year data are all multiple growth, 14 times in June and 6.6 times in July.
According to the current rate of iron ore import, the market generally predicts that Chinas total import of iron ore in 2020 will easily exceed 1.069 billion tons of last year, break the record of 1.075 billion tons in 2017, and is expected to reach a historic 1.2 billion tons.
Statistics show that since August 14, Chinas iron ore import price (62% grade) broke through the 120 US dollars / ton mark on August 14, the price continued to run at a high level, reaching the highest level since the beginning of this year of 127.32 US dollars / ton on September 15, an increase of more than 60% compared with the low of $79.53/ton since 2020.
Of course, it is worth noting that in addition to coke and iron ore, copper and aluminum and other raw materials were also imported in July and August. In August, China imported 429.464 tons of aluminum, the second consecutive month as a net importer of aluminum, the highest level in 11 years, with imports increasing 8 times year on year. Prior to that, the import volume of aluminum products in July was 391300 tons, an increase of 570% year-on-year, making it the largest import volume since April 2009.
In the copper market, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper materials in August was about 668000 tons, an increase of 67.1% year-on-year. In July, imports hit a record high. From January to August, the total import volume was 2.952 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 37.66%.