Black Swan coming? Global capital market shock institutions cant hold back

category:Finance
 Black Swan coming? Global capital market shock institutions cant hold back


In the face of the great shock of the external disk, investors have a little worry about the trend of a shares after the long holiday. In this regard, the agency has provided more views and suggestions, and the gold stock portfolio in October is also worthy of reference.

Trump claims to be infected with the new crown

Tonight, Melania and I are positive for the new crown test, we will immediately start the isolation and rehabilitation process, and we will get through it together, trump said in a tweet

After receiving a lot of attention from Trumps tweet, Melania also tweeted that she had tested positive for her new coronavirus. Melania tweeted: we feel good and I have postponed all upcoming offers. Please make sure youre safe and well get through it together.

Trump walked out of the White House in a mask on Tuesday, thumbing up in front of the media on the scene, and then taking Navy one to the medical center, according to overseas. Com.

According to the guardian, if Trumps illness worsens and he can no longer perform his duties, vice president burns will replace him. If burns is also infected and unable to perform his duties, he will be replaced by Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the US House of Representatives.

In the debate on September 29, Biden and trump had a heated dialogue and confrontation for 90 minutes at a relatively close distance. Therefore, what is Bidens physical condition has now aroused speculation in the US political arena and public opinion.

Biden and his wife were tested for new coronavirus on the morning of the 2nd after the news that trump and Melanias new coronavirus tests were positive, chinanews.com reported.

Bidens campaign team then issued a statement saying Biden and his wife, Jill Biden, tested negative for the new coronavirus.

Triggered a huge shock in the global capital market

U.S. stocks fell sharply after the opening, with the Dow down more than 400 points, the NASDAQ down more than 2%, technology stocks, aviation stocks and oil stocks generally fell, and Tesla fell 6%. However, the Dow rose rapidly in the session, turned red, and finally fell 134 points to 27682.81 points, or 0.48%.

Time sharing chart of Dow

The NASDAQ index was weak, falling 251.49 points, or 2.22%, to 11075.02, while the standard & Poors 500 index fell 32.36 points, or 0.96%, to 3348.44.

The A50 futures index once dived in the session, falling more than 2%, but then rose rapidly and turned red, with the current rise of about 0.50%.

Time sharing chart of phase A50

In the futures market, NYMEX crude oil fell sharply, falling more than 5% in the session, losing $40 / barrel. So far, it has closed down 4.42% to $37.01/barrel. Brent crude oil fell as much as 4.96%.

COMEX gold fell more than 1% in the session, falling below the $1900 / oz mark. However, there was a rapid rebound and turned red, closing down 0.64% at $1904.1/oz and returning to the $1900 mark.

Photo source: Fortune Oriental

Trumps diagnosis of infection with the new crown and the severe shock of the global capital market have aroused the attention of many investment circles.

According to the financial press, Gary Dugan, chief executive of the global CIO office, said: this will cause market tension, and we may see a 10% correction in US stocks and could drag down Asian stocks for the rest of the year. In the long run, there will be a more distinct contrast between Asian and US stocks. Asia is politically stable and has strong technology companies. For those who want to allocate assets globally, it will only make Asia more attractive. .

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, points out that the US stock market has experienced two big falls in the past period, and has begun to stabilize recently. After trump was diagnosed as positive for the new crown, the trend of the US stock market has again increased uncertainty. If the U.S. stock market falls again, it will have a certain impact on the global capital market. Then, the short-term trend of a shares will also have a certain impact, but the impact is not big, because the A-share market is more supported by the domestic economic recovery. According to the data released by the Statistics Bureau, the economy continued to recover in September, and the PMI also showed that Chinas economy will continue to recover in the fourth quarter, and A-share market is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter.

According to the 21st century economic report, Zhang Kexing, general manager of gray assets, believes that the diagnosis of the US president is an unexpected emergency, so there may be an unexpected impact in one or two days or in a short time. Then, the whole market, whether in the U.S. or A-shares, will go on a normal trading track. The impact on a shares should be Very short-term. Its over in a day or two.

Li Kejie, general manager of Quanhong private equity fund, pointed out that the US presidents diagnosis will indeed have an impact on the global market. First of all, U.S. stocks will be hit, and then European stock markets will be impacted. These days, European and American stock markets may be a barometer of the presidents illness.

Li Kejie believes that although the U.S. presidents new crown test is positive, if the disease improves in a day or two, or it is slight, then the impact on the market will be limited. Once the disease is not so light, the market will be subject to a big impact.

But a shares are suspended after all, and it is not easy to say that it has been impacted. If the president of the United States is not seriously ill, or recovered in a few days, then the impact of a shares will be relatively reduced. In short, this may be another black swan incident. After a few days, it is not easy to predict the changes. Li Kejie said.

Li Kejie believes that the response to the black swan incident is dont be too afraid, because Chinas politics and economy are both good. The stock market has also been adjusted ahead of schedule.

The organization carefully screened the October gold stock portfolio

In view of the upcoming October market of a shares, a number of institutions carefully screened the gold stock portfolio in October. The following selection is for reference.

Photo source: Ping An Securities Research

Source: Sichuan Finance Securities Research Report

Photo source: Guoyuan Securities Research Report

Every editor he Jianling

Part of the content of this paper is integrated from daily economic news, financial association, 21st century economic report, etc.

Source of this article: Yang Bin, editor in charge of daily economic news_ NF4368