Black Swan coming? Global capital market shock institutions cant hold back

category:Finance
 Black Swan coming? Global capital market shock institutions cant hold back


Affected by this news, the global capital market has a huge shock. On Friday (October 2, Eastern time), the three major indexes of US stocks opened sharply lower, and closed down collectively after a short rebound. By the end of the day, the Dow was down 0.48%, the Nasdaq was down 2.22%, and the S & P 500 was down 0.96%. NYMEX crude oil fell more than 4%; the A50 futures index also showed severe volatility.

President trump, 74, and first lady Melania, 50, were both confirmed to be infected with the new crown Tuesday.

Tonight, Melania and I are positive for the new crown test, we will immediately start the isolation and rehabilitation process, and we will get through it together, trump said in a tweet

According to the guardian, if Trumps illness worsens and he can no longer perform his duties, vice president burns will replace him. If burns is also infected and unable to perform his duties, he will be replaced by Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the US House of Representatives.

In the debate on September 29, Biden and trump had a heated dialogue and confrontation for 90 minutes at a relatively close distance. Therefore, what is Bidens physical condition has now aroused speculation in the US political arena and public opinion.

Triggered a huge shock in the global capital market

The news of Trumps diagnosis of infection with the new crown immediately triggered a violent shock in the global capital market. After the twitter news, the three major U.S. stock index futures fell sharply in early trading on the 2nd, down more than 1.6%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 500 points. The opening of European market also fell, with FTSE 100 in the UK, CAC40 in France and DAX in Germany falling by about 1%.

U.S. stocks fell sharply after the opening, with the Dow down more than 400 points, the NASDAQ down more than 2%, technology stocks, aviation stocks and oil stocks generally fell, and Tesla fell 6%. However, the Dow rose rapidly in the session, turned red, and finally fell 134 points to 27682.81 points, or 0.48%.

Time sharing chart of Dow

The NASDAQ index was weak, falling 251.49 points, or 2.22%, to 11075.02, while the standard & Poors 500 index fell 32.36 points, or 0.96%, to 3348.44.

The A50 futures index once dived in the session, falling more than 2%, but then rose rapidly and turned red, with the current rise of about 0.50%.

Time sharing chart of phase A50

In the futures market, NYMEX crude oil fell sharply, falling more than 5% in the session, losing $40 / barrel. So far, it has closed down 4.42% to $37.01/barrel. Brent crude oil fell as much as 4.96%.

Time sharing chart of NYMEX crude oil futures

COMEX gold fell more than 1% in the session, falling below the $1900 / oz mark. However, there was a rapid rebound and turned red, closing down 0.64% at $1904.1/oz and returning to the $1900 mark.

Photo source: Fortune Oriental

Industry: or A-share short-term impact, but little impact

According to the 21st century economic report, Zhang Kexing, general manager of gray assets, believes that the diagnosis of the US president is an unexpected emergency, so there may be an unexpected impact in one or two days or in a short time. Then, the whole market, whether in the U.S. or A-shares, will go on a normal trading track. The impact on a shares should be Very short-term. Its over in a day or two.

Li Kejie, general manager of Quanhong private equity fund, pointed out that the US presidents diagnosis will indeed have an impact on the global market. First of all, U.S. stocks will be hit, and then European stock markets will be impacted. These days, European and American stock markets may be a barometer of the presidents illness.

Li Kejie believes that although the U.S. presidents new crown test is positive, if the disease improves in a day or two, or it is slight, then the impact on the market will be limited. Once the disease is not so light, the market will be subject to a big impact.

But a shares are suspended after all, and it is not easy to say that it has been impacted. If the president of the United States is not seriously ill, or recovered in a few days, then the impact of a shares will be relatively reduced. In short, this may be another black swan incident. After a few days, it is not easy to predict the changes. Li Kejie said.

Institutions carefully screen gold stock portfolio in October

In view of the upcoming October market of a shares, a number of institutions carefully screened the gold stock portfolio in October. The following selection is for reference.

Photo source: Ping An Securities Research

Photo source: Guoyuan Securities Research Report

Photo source: Zheshang Securities Research

Every editor he Jianling

Part of the content of this paper is integrated from daily economic news, financial association, 21st century economic report, etc.