Will there be arbitrage opportunities when 20 billion incremental funds enter the science and technology innovation board?

category:Finance
 Will there be arbitrage opportunities when 20 billion incremental funds enter the science and technology innovation board?


50 ETF positions on the science and technology innovation board led the index to rise

On September 28, the first batch of 50 ETF products of the science and technology innovation board was established. According to the establishment scale, the science and Technology Innovation Board will usher in 20 billion yuan of incremental funds, accounting for 6.6% of the free circulation market value of the 50 component stocks of science and technology innovation, and 46.5% of the semi annual fund position scale.

In terms of net value, choice data shows that, as of September 30, the net value of the first four scientific and technological innovation board 50ETF units has exceeded 1 yuan. Among them, the net value of Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Technology Innovation board 50 ETF and e fund Shanghai Stock Exchange science and technology innovation board 50 ETF exceeds 1.002, and the net value of industrial and Commercial Bank of China Shanghai Stock Exchange Technology Innovation board 50 ETF and Huatai Bairui Shanghai Stock Exchange Technology Innovation board 50 ETF exceeds 1.001.

Four science and technology innovation board 50ETF funds may have a significant positive impact on the index. Judging from the performance of the science and technology innovation index last week, the science and technology innovation 50 index rose by 3.80% on September 29 and 2.07% on September 30. Compared with the Shanghai stock index, Shenzhen stock index and gem index, the performance of science and technology innovation 50 is very strong, becoming the most eye-catching plate before the festival.

However, in terms of transaction volume, in the first five trading days (922-9.28) of September 29, the average daily turnover of the constituent stocks of Kechuang 50 index was 25.1 billion yuan; after entering the warehouse building period (9.29-9.30), the average daily turnover was 20.7 billion yuan, which was not hot.

According to the relevant numerical analysis, in extreme cases, the amount of funds put into the market by the four ETFs is about 3 billion yuan, accounting for about 15% of the total funds.

In other words, most of the funds have not yet entered the market, and the market driven by incremental funds will continue after the double festival.

Short term or arbitrage opportunities

According to the analysis of industry insiders, the key to ETF operation is liquidity. The first mover has the first mover advantage. It is expected that within one month, various fund companies will quickly build positions and rush to be listed first. At the same time, the position of ETF will be more than 95%, which means that arbitrage opportunities will come under the condition that the inflow amount, inflow plate and inflow time are basically determined.

In addition, judging from the performance of the science and technology innovation board, it happens that the science and technology innovation board has experienced a wave of adjustment, and the average daily turnover in the near future is only about 20 billion yuan, facing the test of insufficient liquidity. Such a large amount of ETF needs to be completed in a short period of time, so the relevant arbitrage opportunities emerge.

Many investors have already been in the relevant stock bar hot discussion.

According to the discussion of investors, there are three kinds of arbitrage opportunities. First, if investors are qualified to invest in the science and technology innovation board, they will ambush the top several heavy stocks in the Kechuang 50 index at an appropriate time point; second, they should look for the weighted stocks with low proportion of institutional positions, small free circulation market value, but relatively high weight in the Kechuang 50 index and low daily transaction volume; and third, layout the stocks on the science and technology innovation board by means of channels Vote for the fund.

However, industry insiders also remind that ETF positions are short and arbitrage opportunities are fleeting. Once the fund manager completes the allocation, the game relationship between funds and chips is likely to reverse. In addition, there are many other factors that affect the short-term stock price trend of science and technology innovation board. Ordinary investors are easy to fall into the embarrassing situation of arbitrage can not be achieved, but eat the arbitrage. In the long run, the stock price still depends on the companys fundamentals.

According to Wang Delun, chief strategic analyst of Societe Generale Securities, ETF may be more appropriate to slow down and avoid impatience. After December, the science and technology innovation board 50 ETF may usher in an excellent allocation period. In his opinion, the IPO and the lifting of restricted shares on the scientific and technological innovation board in October and November will increase the supply of chips, potentially amplify the volatility of the market, and the probability of unilateral sharp rise is relatively limited, and the uncertainty increases. After December, if the giant IPO is completed, the ban and reduction of leading companies in the science and technology innovation board is completed, the policy stimulus is formed in the 14th five year plan, and the value of scientific and technological innovation growth is fully digested, the 50 ETF of the science and technology innovation board may usher in an excellent allocation period. Wang Delun further said that during the ETF warehouse building period, attention should be paid to the following events: first, the giant IPO is about to land on the science and technology innovation board. High quality stocks such as ant group, Jingdong Digital Technology Co., Ltd. and Geely Automobile may successively land on the science and technology innovation board around November, resulting in the blood sucking effect of IPO. Second, the leaders of the science and technology innovation board are facing a sharp rebalancing of funds, allocation funds may flow to ant group and other newly listed leading companies, and trading funds may be greatly diverted. Third, the second wave of large-scale lifting of the ban on the science and technology innovation board is coming, from the end of October to November At the beginning of the 50 th month, the stock price of non tradable shares may be lifted in advance. Source of this article: Yang Bin, editor in charge of Shanghai Securities News_ NF4368

According to Wang Delun, chief strategic analyst of Societe Generale Securities, ETF may be more appropriate to slow down and avoid impatience. After December, the science and technology innovation board 50 ETF may usher in an excellent allocation period. In his opinion, the IPO and the lifting of restricted shares on the scientific and technological innovation board in October and November will increase the supply of chips, potentially amplify the volatility of the market, and the probability of unilateral sharp rise is relatively limited, and the uncertainty increases. After December, if the giant IPO is completed, the ban and reduction of leading companies in the science and technology innovation board is completed, the policy stimulus is formed in the 14th five year plan, and the value of scientific and technological innovation growth is fully digested, the 50 ETF of the science and technology innovation board may usher in an excellent allocation period.

Wang Delun further said that during the ETF warehouse building period, attention should be paid to the following events: first, the giant IPO is about to land on the science and technology innovation board. High quality stocks such as ant group, Jingdong Digital Technology Co., Ltd. and Geely Automobile may successively land on the science and technology innovation board around November, resulting in the blood sucking effect of IPO. Second, the leaders of the science and technology innovation board are facing a sharp rebalancing of funds, allocation funds may flow to ant group and other newly listed leading companies, and trading funds may be greatly diverted. Third, the second wave of large-scale lifting of the ban on the science and technology innovation board is coming, from the end of October to November At the beginning of the 50 th month, the stock price of non tradable shares may be lifted in advance.