The honeymoon period of US stock market rebound has passed? Shock or become the main tone of the fourth quarter

category:Finance
 The honeymoon period of US stock market rebound has passed? Shock or become the main tone of the fourth quarter


Some analysts believe that there is no doubt that this will trigger market tension, and US stocks may be short-term correction. However, judging from the market performance, the impact of Trumps diagnosis may not be as big as expected. Although the US stocks generally fell on Friday, the decline was relatively orderly, and the decline in Asian and European stock markets was smaller. Safe haven assets such as the US dollar and gold remained basically stable, and gold fell to around 1906 after reaching a high of US $1917. If trump only diagnosed positive without other symptoms, the impact on the market will be more moderate, and the market may rebound soon.

Whats the next step for US stocks after the correction in September?

Novel coronavirus pneumonia is still uncertain in the fourth quarter, even though investors expect the White House to launch a new round of economic stimulus measures to combat the adverse effects of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on commercial activities. In particular, the presidential election in 2020 and previous doubts about the overvalued technology stocks in the US have raised concerns that the stock market may suffer a greater impact.

Economic recovery honeymoon period has passed, concussion market may dominate the fourth quarter

The sudden correction of US stocks in September may also mean that the honeymoon period with the fastest recovery rate of the global economy has ended. The honeymoon period in which the stock market rebounded rapidly in the past few months is likely to be suspended. Before the election results come out, the trend is likely to be disorderly.

Many economists are not optimistic about the speed of economic recovery in the fourth quarter. Although the large-scale easing stimulus from governments and central banks has made the global economy recover continuously, the last stage of recovery will be the most difficult due to multiple factors. For example, differences in the U.S. Congress over the fiscal support plan will affect the pace of economic recovery. Temporary unemployment may turn into permanent unemployment while waiting for the stimulus package. Giants including Disney and Royal Dutch Shell also accelerated the pace of layoffs this week. Moreover, novel coronavirus pneumonia is spreading more rapidly with the advent of the high flu season in autumn and winter, which will force some governments to re take measures.

Economists have been downgrading their forecasts for the fourth quarter of U.S. economic growth, fearing that the White Houses new stimulus package will stagnate and that an agreement may not be reached before the November presidential election. According to J.P. Morgan, fiscal stimulus measures by governments have increased global GDP by 3.7 percentage points this year. But if policy makers turn to tightening fiscal policy too soon, it will bring great resistance to GDP growth next year.

The surge in uncertainty has also made investors less optimistic. In September, the number of new non-agricultural employment in the United States was only 661000, which was lower than the expected increase of 875000. The former value also decreased from 1.489 million to 1.371 million. In September, novel coronavirus pneumonia also failed to reveal another level of pressure: under the two impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, some temporary unemployment will become permanent unemployment, and the number of permanent unemployed is increasing relative to the number of temporary and unpaid vacations. This implies that the recovery of the labor market is slowing down. Economic growth will slow down in the fourth quarter and corporate profits will also decline. We have come out of the stage from economic stagnation to rapid rebound, and now we are in a new stage that is hard to predict, and the US stock market may usher in a volatile fourth quarter, said Ethan Harris, head of global economic research at Bank of America Source of this article: Yang Bin, editor in charge of the first finance and Economics_ NF4368

The surge in uncertainty has also made investors less optimistic. In September, the number of new non-agricultural employment in the United States was only 661000, which was lower than the expected increase of 875000. The former value also decreased from 1.489 million to 1.371 million.

In September, novel coronavirus pneumonia also failed to reveal another level of pressure: under the two impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, some temporary unemployment will become permanent unemployment, and the number of permanent unemployed is increasing relative to the number of temporary and unpaid vacations. This implies that the recovery of the labor market is slowing down. Economic growth will slow down in the fourth quarter and corporate profits will also decline.

We have come out of the stage from economic stagnation to rapid rebound, and now we are in a new stage that is hard to predict, and the US stock market may usher in a volatile fourth quarter, said Ethan Harris, head of global economic research at Bank of America