The huge uncertainty of Trumps diagnosis of non farm cold water sweeping the world

category:Finance
 The huge uncertainty of Trumps diagnosis of non farm cold water sweeping the world


According to media reports, on the 2nd of local time, bill stepien, campaign manager of trump team, said that all campaign activities before the November election will be put online or postponed.

The September non farm report is mixed, which may not play a big role in changing the mainstream preference of foreign exchange market. With the release of the employment report, the foreign exchange market is likely to focus on broader risk sentiment, which has been weakened by news of Trumps new coronavirus infection and its possible impact on the election.

The three major U.S. stock indexes fell across the board, with the NASDAQ down 2.22%, the Dow down 0.48%, and the S & P 500 index down 0.96%.

Light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.67/barrel, or 4.31%, to $37.05/barrel; London Brent crude oil futures for December delivery fell $1.66/barrel to $39.27/barrel, or 4.06%.

Novel coronavirus pneumonia confirmed by us at 7318110 p.m. Eastern time, 208485 cases were fatal, according to statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the US at 17:00 on October 2nd. In the past 24 hours, 51168 new confirmed cases and 935 new deaths have been reported in the United States.

On the one hand, the market is extremely concerned about Trumps health. In response, White House doctor Sean Conley said the president and the first lady are very well at the moment, and they plan to isolate and rehabilitate at the White House. He also expects trump to continue to perform his duties during the treatment. However, regardless of Trumps health, the future election process is still unknown. The second round of general election debate will bear the brunt. According to experts analysis, this debate is likely to be postponed or carried out in other ways. According to media reports, on the 2nd of local time, bill stepien, campaign manager of trump team, said that all campaign activities before the November election will be put online or postponed.

On the other hand, Trumps diagnosis also made the White House high-level panic, after all, many government officials are at risk of infection. It is not clear whether he has been infected with other staff or the public. According to the latest news, including Democratic presidential candidate Biden, U.S. Vice President John burns, speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Pelosi, and Secretary of the Treasury mnuchin, the new coronavirus test results are negative.

CNN pointed out that Trumps diagnosis of the new crown is the most serious health crisis experienced by a US president in decades. According to the 25th amendment to the U.S. Constitution, if the president is unable to perform his duties due to physical reasons, power can be temporarily transferred to the vice president. Once the president thinks he can perform his duties, he can also take back his power. But if the vice president is unable to perform his duties, he will be replaced by the speaker of the house of Representatives.

Shi Jialiang, a researcher on foreign exchange and precious metals of Fangzheng medium term futures, told reporters that the market believes that there is a certain necessity or an accident for trump to win the new title at the key time point of the U.S. election. From the perspective of inevitable events, the number of new crown infections announced by the United States is nearly 8million. In recent years, trump seems to be unavoidable to avoid the infection of the president who has not paid attention to epidemic prevention in order to campaign for offline speeches and ticket pulling activities, which often participate in a large number of crowd gathering. From the perspective of contingency, Biden seized Trumps pain point of disease prevention, economy and tax payment in the first television debate in the U.S. election. According to the polls, Biden performed better than trump.

Novel coronavirus pneumonia has been a new uncertainty in the US political situation, which has raised the market demand for cash, and has increased the US dollar index to 94.035 in the day, and the spot gold short line has fallen to 1890 US dollars / ounce, Shi Jialiang said. Trumps new market has been confirmed by the market. However, this also enabled the Democratic Party, which advocated high tax policies, to seize the return receipt regime more smoothly, and the large-scale fiscal stimulus measures would be launched more smoothly. The gold price then rebounded sharply by more than $15 / oz to $1905 / oz, and the dollar index fell sharply to the level of 93.875.

Non agricultural data in September

From the perspective of the future market, Li Ni believes that gold is in the state of oscillation adjustment after it rose to a record high in August, because of the rebound of long-term US bond yield and the fall of inflation expectation, as well as the rebound of the US dollar after the US economic data recovered beyond expectations.

Since August, negotiations on the US fiscal stimulus bill have reached an impasse, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has shrunk slightly compared with June, and market concerns about liquidity have surfaced. In the future, if the Democratic Party gets the power more smoothly and introduces the fiscal stimulus bill, it will usher in another expansion of the Federal Reserves balance sheet. Driven by the liquidity of the US dollar, gold prices are expected to open a new round of upward channels, and the US dollar will return to the weak range. She said.

In the view of Shi Jialiang, in the short term, due to the economic impact of the European epidemic, Trumps diagnosis has increased the market concern, the certainty has increased significantly, and the market risk aversion sentiment is high, which leads to the rise of cash demand, and the superposition of the weakness of euro and pound sterling will continue to support the small strength of the US dollar.

Copper market oscillation intensified, the fundamentals are relatively weak

In the nonferrous metals market, the first day of the national day, the external nonferrous metal market fell sharply, among which the price of copper in Lun copper fell by more than 5%, the biggest drop in nearly half a year. The market generally interpreted that the number of cases in Europe and the United States continued to increase. In addition, the WTO agreed that the European Union would impose commodity tariffs on the United States, which triggered market concerns about the trade situation and suppressed optimism. Then on the second day of national day, Luntong copper rose after hitting a new low on Friday, recovering some of the previous days losses.

Gao Weihong, a nonferrous metal researcher at Jin Rui futures, said that the collapse of copper prices is not a single message or data impact, more concentrated on the basis of the comprehensive fundamentals and the expected adjustment, and the concentration of a macro hedge fund may also be one of the influencing factors.

At the macro level, the final value of US GDP in the second quarter was - 31.4%, the largest decline in history. However, ADP employment increased by 749000 in September, which was better than the expected and the previous value. Macro data did not show huge negative effects, which can be verified by the price trend of other risk assets. However, the international crude oil price plummeted again, which restrained inflation expectations. Basically, LME inventory increased sharply in a row within the week , returned to more than 160000 tons, more than double the inventory level last Friday, and the substantial delivery weakened the support of low inventory.

For now, he said copper fundamentals are still relatively weak. On the demand side, the domestic consumption performance is not good, and the stock preparation situation before the festival is not as good as that of the same period last year. It is understood from the micro level that the orders in October have not improved significantly. However, with the fall of copper price recently, the price gap of refined waste has continued to narrow, and the situation of substituting refined waste for consumption has improved, which is beneficial to the consumption of refined copper to a certain extent. At the supply side, the production impact caused by the epidemic situation has been constantly repaired. Recently, Chinas joint negotiation group on copper raw materials (cspt) has recently decided that the TC floor price in the fourth quarter is 58 US dollars / ton, which is 5 dollars / ton higher than that in the third quarter. This shows that the shortage pattern of mining and smelting is gradually improving. Meanwhile, the maintenance of domestic smelting in the fourth quarter is significantly reduced, and the production is expected to continue to rebound.

For the future market, in his view, since the copper price had contained more optimistic market expectations, there may be a certain range of adjustment in the short term, but the support is still strong, and the copper price may maintain a volatile pattern.

At present, the global macro data has failed to stabilize. In addition to the uncertainty brought about by the US election, market funds have thrown precious metals and turned to buy US dollars. The periodic stabilization of the US dollar has put pressure on nonferrous metals and superimposed on the second rebound of the European epidemic. Many negative effects are causing bulls to leave the market, and bears are once again entering to suppress copper prices. Looking forward to the future, he believes that in the short term, we need to continue to pay attention to the performance of the peripheral market during the national day, and we can not rule out the possibility that the copper price will continue to fall under the background of funds leaving the market.