Although the overall situation of net selling, the pattern of deep strong Shanghai weak of northward funds has become increasingly obvious recently.
Take recent trading days as an example. On September 29, northbound funds bought more than 2 billion yuan in the early trading, but sold a small amount of net by the end of the day. Among them, Shanghai Stock connect sold 2.784 billion yuan and Shenzhen Stock connect bought 2.69 billion yuan. In the three trading days of this week, Shenzhen Stock connect bought net and Shanghai Stock connect sold net twice.
Data source: Dongfang fortune choice data
Traditional consumer sector short-term selling
Market analysts believe that food and beverage and other traditional foreign heavy positions have recently been sold off by northward funds, while the technology and pro cyclical stocks, which previously held more dispersed shares, gained positions against the trend, which is an important reason for the deep strength and Shanghai weakness of northward funds during the year.
According to wind data, as of September 30, 16 of the top 20 stocks (based on the stock market value) of northbound funds had been reduced by northbound funds in September.
Among them, Yilis northward capital holdings declined the most, reaching 6.47%, and 50 million shares were sold in a month. More than 20 million shares of Aier Eye were also sold off, with its holdings down 6.13%. In addition, the number of shares of traditional blue chips such as Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye, Hikvision and Changjiang Power decreased significantly.
Northbound capital top 20 heavy positions in September
However, it is worth noting that among the top 20 heavy positions of northbound funds, Ningde times, the leader of new energy vehicles, obtained a substantial increase of 12 million shares of northbound funds in September, and the shareholding increased by 12.47%, which is the most obvious increase in the top 20 heavy positions.
In terms of the change of shareholding ratio, duofuduo, the leader of LiFePO4 battery, has gained more than 12 million shares from northward capital in the past month, with its shareholding increased by 302.87% and its shareholding ratio increased by 2.18%. In addition, the new energy concept stock, Desai Xiwei, also or northward, increased its holdings by more than 2 million shares, with a growth of 21.11%.
September counter trend increase period stocks
On the other hand, some foreign investors began to look for excess returns in companies with relatively small market value, and procyclical plate became the focus of attention. Wind data shows that in September, the proportion of northward capital holdings increased by more than 2 percentage points, and the cyclical stocks accounted for the majority.
Long term capital allocation behavior has more reference value
Recently, the continuous outflow of foreign capital is relatively large, and some investors have doubts about the continued allocation of overseas funds to a shares. According to the analysis of the strategy team of Societe Generale Securities, the recent outflow of foreign capital is mainly due to the following reasons:
2) Judging from the history of the past four years, due to the excessive profit taking in the market in the first half of the year, foreign capital will sell tens of billions of dollars in stages.
3) From the perspective of individual stocks, the stocks that have been sold more recently are those with high periodic valuation and more profits, such as Guizhou Maotai, Midea Group, Wuliangye, etc. Some of the core assets of stable roe, which are in high valuation, will be reduced periodically by some foreign investors.
Some securities companies also said that there is no need to pay too much attention to the short-term trend of foreign capital, and the long-term capital allocation behavior of northward funds has more reference value. The foreign trading market, which has a sensitive sense of smell and is often big in and big out, is not necessarily smarter than the foreign allocation board.
Through the analysis of historical data, Guosheng securities strategy team found that in terms of timing ability, the long-term performance of foreign-funded allocation market is significantly better than that of foreign-funded trading market, which is specifically reflected in the significant contribution of foreign-funded allocation plate timing return, while the foreign-funded trading market continues to be negative. In the aspect of position adjustment and stock selection, the performance of allocation and trading is basically the same, which is not dominant; in addition, if the weekly net increase is used to construct the industry allocation strategy, the effectiveness of foreign allocation plate is obviously better than that of foreign trading market. CITIC Securities said that the composition of northbound funds is complex, and it is easy to generate opinion noise when different types of funds are confused. According to the classification of fund types by custody institutions, the allocation funds have significantly increased the holding of a shares, accounting for nearly 80% of the market value of the positions. Since the end of September 2018, the accumulated net inflow has exceeded 550 billion yuan. Excluding the trading funds with short-term game attributes, the market value signal of industry positions of allocation funds is more long-term, and the guidance of relative over allocation ratio is more significant. Source of this article: Yang Bin, editor in charge of Shanghai Securities News_ NF4368
CITIC Securities said that the composition of northbound funds is complex, and it is easy to generate opinion noise when different types of funds are confused. According to the classification of fund types by custody institutions, the allocation funds have significantly increased the holding of a shares, accounting for nearly 80% of the market value of the positions. Since the end of September 2018, the accumulated net inflow has exceeded 550 billion yuan. Excluding the trading funds with short-term game attributes, the market value signal of industry positions of allocation funds is more long-term, and the guidance of relative over allocation ratio is more significant.