How does the global market volatility affect A-share market?

category:Finance
 How does the global market volatility affect A-share market?


Global market shock

On October 2, at 12:54 noon Beijing time and 0:54 U.S. Eastern time, the president of the United States said that he and his wife were tested positive for the new crown, and would immediately enter the isolation and rehabilitation process.

Prior to this, it was reported on October 1 local time that senior assistant to the president of the United States, hope Hicks, had also tested positive for new coronavirus.

Hicks is one of the assistants who have the most contact with the president at work, and has been accompanying many activities recently. On September 29, Hicks took part in the first TV debate of the US presidential election on Air Force One; on September 30, she and the president of the United States went to a campaign rally in Minnesota.

After the president of the United States announced that the new crown test was positive and was quarantined, the global market fluctuated violently.

On hearing of the news, the three major stock index futures fell, and the three major stock index futures all fell by more than 1%. By the time of press release, S & P 500 small index futures were down 1.3%, Nasdaq 100 index futures were down 2%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 1.3%.

Japans 225 shares closed 0.67% lower.

However, FTSE China A50 Index futures fell by 2.6% at one time and narrowed to 0.4% at the time of press release.

After the U.S. president was infected with the new coronavirus, Brent and WTI crude oil fell by more than 3%, and now slightly narrowed at around 3%.

What is the impact of overseas market and a shares?

After the news that the US presidents new crown test was positive, a thousand waves were aroused, and the domestic investment circle was also fried. Fund managers began to evaluate the impact and countermeasures.

In this regard, the reporter interviewed a number of fund managers. Their mainstream view is that the new crown test of the US president is positive, which has a short-term impact on the market, but the impact may be limited.

On October 2, Yang Delong, chief economist and fund manager of Qianhai open source fund, told reporters, the U.S. stock market has fallen twice a while ago, and recently began to stabilize. After the US president was diagnosed as positive for the new crown, the trend of the US stock market has again increased uncertainty. If the U.S. stock market falls again, it will have a certain impact on the global capital market.

For the short-term trend of A-share, there will be a certain impact, but the impact is not big, because the A-share market is more supported by the domestic economic recovery. According to the data released by the Statistics Bureau, the economy continued to pick up in September, and the PMI also showed that Chinas economy will continue to recover in the fourth quarter, and A-share market is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter. Yang Delong said.

Zhang Kexing, general manager of gray asset management, believes that the diagnosis of the US president is an unexpected emergency, so there may be an unexpected impact in one or two days or in a short time. Then, the whole market, whether in the U.S. or a shares, will go on a normal trading track. The impact on a shares should be very short-term, one or two days Its over.

In response, Zhang Kexing said: our investment strategy is still to invest in the best enterprises that can cross the future. I believe that the investment portfolio of such enterprises can cross the bull and bear market and any market fluctuation.

An investment director of a large public offering fund pointed out that the overseas market is falling, so its hard to say the impact on A-shares, but I dont think its a big problem. After the A-share market opens, its expected to drop a bit and open at a low price.

However, the investment director is not optimistic about whether new funds will take the opportunity to copy the bottom.

Li Kejie, general manager of Quanhong private equity fund, pointed out that the US presidents diagnosis will indeed have an impact on the global market. First of all, U.S. stocks will be hit, and then European stock markets will be impacted. These days, European and American stock markets may be a barometer of the presidents illness.

Li Kejie believes that although the U.S. presidents new crown test is positive, if the disease improves in a day or two, or it is slight, then the impact on the market will be limited. Once the disease is not so light, the market will be subject to a big impact.

But a shares are suspended after all, and it is not easy to say that it has been impacted. If the president of the United States is not seriously ill, or recovered in a few days, then the impact of a shares will be relatively reduced. In short, this may be another black swan.. After a few days, it is not easy to predict the changes. Li Kejie said.

Li Kejie believes that the response to the black swan incident is dont be too afraid, because Chinas politics and economy are both good. The stock market has also been adjusted ahead of schedule.

Lin Jiayi, CEO of Xuanjia finance, believes that the diagnosis of the US president is only a microcosm of the US epidemic prevention policy. The incident itself has little marginal impact on the economy and enterprise policies, and it is difficult to drive the White House to make large-scale changes because the president is infected with the new crown.

In the short term, it is difficult to push forward the policy of further substantial easing, or promote the rapid passage of the stimulus bill which has been caught in the game recently, and it has little impact on the margin of free cash flow of enterprises, so there is no need to worry about it. Therefore, it will be similar to the British Prime Ministers infection of the new crown in the first quarter. The market will fluctuate for a short time and continue to return On the main line of the big market, there is no real impact. Lin Jiayi said. But Lin Jiayi pointed out that if the follow-up 2 trillion and 200 billion stimulus bill passed, market funds will be further flooded, and the US stock market bubble will further push up, which will be more dangerous. Historically, mean reversion is basically completed within three years. If the current round of credit is pushed higher due to the epidemic situation, once the leverage is removed in the next few years, asset pricing will fall back into extremely depressed years. Novel coronavirus pneumonia, Trumps diagnosis, what impact on the election? Trumps new pneumonia is spreading. European stock markets have opened up. Trump has confirmed that the new global market is going down. President trump and his wife have confirmed the new crown! This article is from Wang Xiaowu, editor in charge of economic report in the 21st century_ NF

In the short term, it is difficult to push forward the policy of further substantial easing, or promote the rapid passage of the stimulus bill which has been caught in the game recently, and it has little impact on the margin of free cash flow of enterprises, so there is no need to worry about it. Therefore, it will be similar to the British Prime Ministers infection of the new crown in the first quarter. The market will fluctuate for a short time and continue to return On the main line of the big market, there is no real impact. Lin Jiayi said.

But Lin Jiayi pointed out that if the follow-up 2 trillion and 200 billion stimulus bill passed, market funds will be further flooded, and the US stock market bubble will further push up, which will be more dangerous. Historically, mean reversion is basically completed within three years. If the current round of credit is pushed higher due to the epidemic situation, once the leverage is removed in the next few years, asset pricing will fall back into extremely depressed years.

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