Trump confirmed the new crown expert: whether Biden is also infected is the biggest variable in the election

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 Trump confirmed the new crown expert: whether Biden is also infected is the biggest variable in the election


Before that, trump had been lagging behind Biden in the polls. Trumps performance has also disappointed many Americans in the just concluded first debate of the U.S. general election in 2020. In such a context, trump was suddenly diagnosed with new coronavirus. What impact will this have on the US election with only one month left? Will the diagnosis of infection help trump reverse his previous decline? If Biden and trump are infected at the same time, can the election be held as scheduled? In this regard, red star journalists talked to Wang Chong, senior researcher of Chahar society, a think tank of foreign affairs and international relations, to try to solve the above-mentioned questions.

This may not be Trumps conspiracy

Mr. trump tweeted that he had been diagnosed with a new crown infection, only a month or so before the US presidential election vote. This time, trump was diagnosed at this critical moment. Is it a conspiracy he played? Many outside speculations suggest that trump may use his infection to win the sympathy of the American people.

A screenshot of Trumps Twitter

I dont think its trumps conspiracy. Because the infection is not hidden, it is impossible to forge. Therefore, once trump is infected, the United States will definitely announce it. However, Wang Chong analyzed that trump announced the news of his diagnosis on twitter, more or less, he would get some sympathy points from the public. As a president, he cant hide in the room like Biden. He has to visit everywhere and participate in many activities. Therefore, the risk of trump infection is much higher than that of Biden. It is human nature to have some sympathy for the sick. So, on the whole, Trumps infection will help him recover some of the points he lost. At least its hard for him to continue to fall.

At the same time, Wang Chong further told Red Star News reporters: in the previous debate, I dont think trump has completely failed. Although trump behaved rudely in his manner, manner, language, and attacks on his opponents, which really lost his presidential identity, Bidens performance was not good, and he did not clearly convey his policy agenda. Sometimes the opinion polls are not objective and human factors are very big.

New crown cant make the selection mutation

Some analysts believe that trump may take the opportunity to play a sad card and portray himself as an image of painstaking care for the interests of the American people, regardless of personal safety. In this way, trump may turn the tables. In this regard, Wang Chong thinks: the possibility of overturning is small. In fact, more than 80% of the voters have basically decided who they will vote for. Although this years general election situation is very special, there are very few people who are still hesitant

Wang Chong also pointed out that if the three three system is adopted in the US general election, one third of the supporters of the Democratic Party and one third of the Republican Party will definitely vote for their party unswervingly. The remaining one-third are swing voters, and even these swing voters, by now, mostly decide who to vote for. Whether its the TV debate or the emotional bonus brought about by the new coronavirus infection, these factors have very little impact on the voting, which can not achieve the effect of turning trump around.

Whether Biden is infected or not is the biggest variable

At present, Bidens physical health is the most popular concern. Trump diagnosed infection, the biggest variable to the election is whether Biden is infected or not. Wang Chong also told Red Star News reporters that at that time (September 29 local time), Trump and Biden did not wear masks at the time of the first debate. Although they kept a social distance of more than one meter, Biden was older than trump and his physical condition might be worse. Once Biden is infected, all kinds of possibilities will happen. This is the biggest uncertainty in this years US election.

If trump is infected, his work will be represented by Vice President burns. The same is true of the election. Both parties have election committees. If Biden and trump are unable to participate in the election due to infection of the new coronavirus at the same time, the election may also be conducted by the vice presidential candidates. This will be a phenomenon never seen in the history of the US presidential election. If it does happen, it can only be said that it is more beneficial to the Republican Party. Because vice president burns is far more qualified and influential than Democratic vice presidential candidate Harris Wang Chong thinks.

However, Wang Chong also said that it is very unlikely that two presidential candidates can not participate in the general election at the same time. Judging from the infection situation of British Prime Minister Johnson and other political figures, the treatment is generally controlled within two weeks. The treatment level in the United States is among the best in the world. Even if it is infected, Trump or Biden should be cured soon, at least with less possibility of deterioration.

Even during isolation treatment, they can make their voice through social media, etc. However, Trumps infection and Bidens campaign also reflect a serious problem facing the United States at present: there is no successor in both parties. Wang Chong pointed out.

Red Star journalist Luo Tian

Editor Guo Yu