Hong Kongs retail industry fell 19 months in a row

category:Finance
 Hong Kongs retail industry fell 19 months in a row


Michael McCool, managing director of alixpartners, a global consulting firm, said that for a long time, luxury goods consumption in Hong Kong has been dominated by mainland enterprises and tourists. Last year, social events in Hong Kong halved the number of mainland tourists. Under the epidemic situation, tourism restrictions were imposed, and mainland tourists almost returned to zero. As for the recovery time, it mainly depends on the rebound speed of mainland tourists and whether the rebound can last.

In contrast, due to social distance constraints and employees working from home, the value of goods sold in supermarkets increased by 10.8% year-on-year in August, electrical appliances and other unclassified durable consumer goods increased by 10.1%, other unclassified consumer goods increased by 5.9%, automobiles and auto parts increased by 4.2%, and furniture and Fixtures increased by 8%.

Is warming up an illusion?

However, Xie Qiu Anyi, chairman of the Hong Kong Retail Management Association, told reporters that the figures in August were false. She pointed out that during the same period of last year, the retail industry was greatly affected by social movements, with a drop of 24.4% in October last year. If we compare the same period with a relatively normal number, for example, in 2018, there is no obvious sign of improvement.

A spokesman for the Hong Kong SAR government said retail sales remained weak in August in the context of the third wave of local outbreaks. Although the year-on-year decline was significantly narrowed, it was mainly due to a very low comparative base.

At present, although the epidemic situation has slowed down and the public have gone out to spend money, it is prosperous but not rich . Although there was a rapid increase in the flow of people earlier, it did not really help the merchants. It had little impact on the jewelry, watch and watch industry, clothing accessories industry and cosmetics industry. These commodities are not daily necessities. The public are not very interested in the shopping of related products. On the contrary, there are more industries that benefit the life category. She said frankly.

A quarter of the stores are facing closure

This years Mid Autumn Festival falls on the 11th National Day, and the long holiday was originally the golden time for Hong Kongs retail industry. In the past 11 golden weeks, mainland tourists accounted for about 30% of Hong Kongs total consumption. According to the 21st century economic report, most Hong Kong people choose to stay at home to reunite with their families due to the influence of the restriction order for four people at a table.

Xie qiuanyi admitted that the small and long holidays in October will help drive the consumption of daily household categories, but she does not think there will be retaliatory consumption as a whole, and expects the retail sales in October to drop by 10% - 20%.

She said that a large number of retail employees continued to face salary cuts, and the situation of shops closing without renewal was similar to that in August. As the Hong Kong SAR government had previously launched the employment protection scheme, the layoffs had not deteriorated. However, she expected that after the end of the employment protection program in November, once the epidemic broke out again and the owners did not significantly reduce the rent, she believed that a quarter of the shops would close down by the end of the year. For a long time, the golden week of the National Day has been the peak season for the jewelry sales industry in Hong Kong. However, Deng juming, chairman of the Hong Kong Prince jewelry and watch group, said that since the second half of last year, the industry has been used to the bleak market situation, and expects the sales volume of this years National Day holiday to fall by 60% - 70% compared with the same period last year. However, due to the low base last year, the business volume is expected to be only about 15% of the normal market level from 2017 to 2018. Liu Zunyi, a professor at the Institute of global economics and finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, predicts that the new epidemic will reduce Hong Kongs real GDP by 6.4% in the first half of this year. Affected by the epidemic, he predicted that Hong Kongs real GDP would lose as much as 11.4% in 2020. This article is from Wang Xiaowu, editor in charge of economic report in the 21st century_ NF

She said that a large number of retail employees continued to face salary cuts, and the situation of shops closing without renewal was similar to that in August. As the Hong Kong SAR government had previously launched the employment protection scheme, the layoffs had not deteriorated. However, she expected that after the end of the employment protection program in November, once the epidemic broke out again and the owners did not significantly reduce the rent, she believed that a quarter of the shops would close down by the end of the year.

Liu Zunyi, a professor at the Institute of global economics and finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, predicts that the new epidemic will reduce Hong Kongs real GDP by 6.4% in the first half of this year. Affected by the epidemic, he predicted that Hong Kongs real GDP would lose as much as 11.4% in 2020.