Trump infects new crown and breaks market calm

category:Finance
 Trump infects new crown and breaks market calm


How does it affect the US election?

Jingyi pan, a market strategist at igasiapte, said: its only a month away from the general election, so this news does throw the Republican campaign into chaos.

Sean callow, a currency strategist at the West Pacific Bank in Sydney, said: it could reduce Trumps campaign capacity. In terms of the whole thing, it would hurt him, although the infection itself was not particularly worrying, it brought the new crown crisis itself back into focus. But will it change elections? I dont know. We have no precedent. In our view, this seems to be a setback for the trump camp. They are far behind, and they hope trump will come out and fight for the election.

What is the impact on the stock market, foreign exchange and commodities? Analysts views are as follows:

US stock returns 10%

In the long run, there will be a clearer contrast between Asian and US stocks. North Asia is politically stable and has strong technology companies. For those who want to allocate assets globally, it will only make Asia more attractive, he said.

It is worth noting that British Prime Minister Johnson was in the same predicament as trump earlier this year. On March 27, when he announced that he was infected with the new coronavirus, European stock markets plunged. The pan European stoxx600 index fell 3.3%, the FTSE 100 index fell 5.25%, the German stock market fell 3.68%, and the French CAC-40 index fell 4.23%.

It can be speculated that the U.S. stock market may usher in a wave of plummeting on Friday. Up to now, the three major index futures of the US stock market are still down more than 1%.

However, although from March 27 to April 5 when Johnson was sent to the ICU, the British stock market fell by nearly 7%, but from April 5 to April 27, when he returned to No. 10 Downing Street, the stock market rebounded by nearly 8% and recovered the previous lost land.

Investors flock to gold

It could also affect Trumps chances of being elected. People will turn to gold and other safe assets, he added.

Halley also believes investors will flock to safe havens. He expects stock and energy prices to fall and the dollar to rise, especially against Pro cyclical currencies such as the euro and the Australian dollar. Gold will also rebound.

Hedging the S & P 500 index

Investors should hedge the S & P 500, said Justin Tang, head of Asia Research at United first partners in Singapore. Given what happened in March, most people may still be hedging. It depends a lot on what happens in the next seven days.

If trump goes to intensive care, that would be a big problem, but if he doesnt have symptoms, market volatility could be contained.

The yen and the dollar will rebound

This will further weaken the dollar because the US stimulus plan may not be approved until after the election, said Jun Kato, chief market analyst at Shinkin asset management. It could also force the fed to adopt a more moderate tone, limiting Treasury yields and putting the dollar under pressure.

Mingze Wu, a foreign exchange trader at stonex group, said risk sentiment will enhance the safe haven appeal of the dollar and put emerging currencies at a disadvantage.

Extended reading heavy burst! Trump confirmed the novel coronavirus pneumonia market, the global market has been defeated and Trump has been infected with the new crown pneumonia. European stock market opened down. The US President Trump and his wife confirmed the new crown. Source of this article: Wang Xiaowu, editor in charge of CFA_ NF