Steel PMI index for four consecutive falls: Q4 output or decline in September

 Steel PMI index for four consecutive falls: Q4 output or decline in September

However, foreign countries in the outbreak of economic restart gradually achieved results, international steel demand tends to pick up, export orders have picked up. The index of new export orders was 46.6%, up 11.9 percentage points from the previous month.

In terms of market terminal, the market sentiment is slightly pessimistic. According to Shanghai Zhuo steel chain, the current domestic steel market terminal demand performance is generally, although the building materials market has been rid of the impact of high temperature and rain, it has not entered the peak season as scheduled, while the plate market is affected by building materials, and the supply side has eased the impact, and the performance is also poor.

In terms of steel plant production, due to insufficient market demand and high raw material cost, steel enterprises were lack of production power in September. The production index was 46%, down 3.3 percentage points compared with the previous month, and decreased for three consecutive months. After last month, it continued to operate in the range below 50%, indicating that the current steel plant production has declined.

In terms of steel plant inventory, in September, although the terminal demand was not optimistic, due to the shrinking output of steel mills, the shipment of steel mills was still relatively smooth. In addition, the replenishment of warehouses before the national day double festival in the Mid Autumn Festival brought about an increase in demand, which led to a decline in the inventory of large steel mills. Social inventories are also falling at high levels. According to the statistics of China Steel Association, in the middle of September, the social stock of 5 major varieties of steel in 20 cities was 12.42 million tons, 10 thousand tons less than the previous ten days, 0.1% lower, and 7.79 million tons, 38.5% lower than the peak value in the first ten days of March.

According to the report, overall, the market demand in September was lower than expected, and the production of steel mills also decreased accordingly, which led to the continuous downward trend of steel prices, and the growth rate of raw material prices slowed down. Overall, the steel market showed a pattern of sluggish peak season, but enterprises still had expectations for October. Although the market demand is expected to be uncertain in October, there is still room for growth. Steel mill production will rise in the short term, but the total output in the fourth quarter may decline month on month.