Nature sub: Chinas food production needs a fundamental transformation, considering the transfer from north to South

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 Nature sub: Chinas food production needs a fundamental transformation, considering the transfer from north to South


At the same time, considering the difference of regional environmental pressure, it is a potential path to transfer agricultural production activities from north to south in general, which is a potential path to ensure the safety of food supply and resources and environment.

So, will Chinas current and future agricultural food production have an overload impact on the ecological environment? Which ecological and environmental problems are most prominent? They introduced the planetary boundaries framework proposed by nature in 2009 to help set the upper limit of agricultural related resources and environmental impact that China can carry, namely safe environmental limits. Compared with the traditional research paradigms of environmental carrying capacity or environmental threshold, the planetary boundary framework focuses on the evaluation of the irreversible impact of human regional activities on the global ecosystem.

The average reduction required for each province to control the five aspects of resource and environmental impact within the security boundary

On this basis, the research team established for the first time a Chinese food system model covering the whole process from production to consumption, and quantitatively evaluated the resource and environmental impacts of water resources consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, land use, active nitrogen emissions and phosphorus emissions of food production in China and other provinces in 2011 and 2030.

The assessment results show that Chinas food production and consumption need a fundamental transformation in order to ensure the national and regional ecological environment security, and then achieve the goal of sustainable development.

Where is the operation?

So, in order to give consideration to Chinas food production and resources and environment security, where should we cut? The paper also evaluates the corresponding reduction measures.

The paper holds that people can reduce the impact of resources and environment in the agricultural production, transportation, processing and consumption stages of food. For example, in the production stage, the environmental impact can be reduced by 2-25% by appropriately reducing the application of chemical fertilizer and replacing part of chemical fertilizer by manure and straw returning to the field; selecting the most advanced agricultural production management technology in the provinces and regions of China (such as wheat and corn planting technology in Quzhou County of Hebei Province) and popularizing them in the whole country can reduce the environmental impact of resources by more than 50%.

In the stage of transportation, processing and consumption, the environmental impact can be further reduced by 9-11% by avoiding the loss and waste of food; the environmental impact can be reduced by 7-12% by adjusting the dietary structure according to the dietary guidelines for Chinese residents.

The reasonable combination of these reduction strategies can not only control the five aspects of resources and environment impacts within the safety limits from the national level, but also reduce the overall food demand of China by 29-34%, which will theoretically reduce the demand for imported food year on year.

The research shows that in 2030, the maximum grain import can be reduced by 13.9 million tons, equivalent to the grain output of Guangxi in 2016; at the same time, the import of livestock products can be reduced by 1.64 million tons, equivalent to the livestock production of Xinjiang in 2016.

From north to South

However, due to the great difference in environmental pressure among provinces, even if the environmental impact is controlled within the safety limits in the whole country, most of the environmental impacts related to agricultural production in the northern provinces will still exceed the limits, while the southern provinces have relatively greater environmental capacity and carrying capacity for agricultural production. The results show that the nitrogen and phosphorus pollution and water consumption in Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Shanxi and Jiangsu provinces have exceeded the safety limits (1-9 times), so some livestock and crop production in these regions can be transferred to some provinces with relatively abundant environmental capacity (such as Fujian, Jiangxi and Zhejiang).

Specifically, the scale of animal husbandry in Shandong Province needs to be reduced by 40%, while that of Fujian Province can be increased by 35%. Of course, this requires comprehensive consideration of the regional suitability of specific agricultural production activities, the driving force of employment, and economic costs and benefits. In general, the transfer of agricultural production activities from north to south is a potential path to achieve the dual goals of national food supply security and ecological environment security of provinces and regions. Hu Yuanchao said.

The environmental impact (left) and food production (right) are suggested to be reallocated in blue and increased in red

(function(){( window.slotbydup=window .slotbydup||[]).push({id:u5811557,container:ssp_ 5811557, async:true }In 2017, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas issued the guidance on accelerating the development of modern animal husbandry in the main grain producing areas of Northeast China, which requires Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces to expand meat production. However, according to the research results, the water supply capacity of these areas is not enough to support large-scale breeding. Even after comprehensive reduction, the nitrogen and phosphorus pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and land use in these four provinces are basically within the safe limits, but the water consumption is still 1-2 times higher than the safety limit. The research team believes that the development of high-level and high-quality breeding industry in the South can not only improve the regional food self-sufficiency rate within the scope of ecological environment, but also improve the anti-risk ability of food supply chain in response to extreme situations such as the new epidemic situation and African swine fever. (this article is from surging news, please download surging news app for more original information) source of this article: surging news editor: Hou Shuai_ NN5533

In 2017, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas issued the guidance on accelerating the development of modern animal husbandry in the main grain producing areas of Northeast China, which requires Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces to expand meat production. However, according to the research results, the water supply capacity of these areas is not enough to support large-scale breeding. Even after comprehensive reduction, the nitrogen and phosphorus pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and land use in these four provinces are basically within the safe limits, but the water consumption is still 1-2 times higher than the safety limit.

The research team believes that the development of high-level and high-quality breeding industry in the South can not only improve the regional food self-sufficiency rate within the scope of ecological environment, but also improve the anti-risk ability of food supply chain in response to extreme situations such as the new epidemic situation and African swine fever.

(this article is from surging news. For more original information, please download the surging news app)