At first, there was still room for Huawei to buy chips from MediaTek under the US governments ban. Huawei has also thought of some ways. For example, after the power cut, Huaweis medium and low-end models can use other chips to replace Kirin chips. In May this year, SMIC provided China with a low-end mobile chip Kirin 710A, which was applied to the glory play4t mobile phone.
As a matter of fact, like Huawei Hisilicon, MediaTek belongs to the category of fabless (wafer less manufacturing design) and is only responsible for the circuit design and sales of chips. The EDA software, arm architecture, IP core and chip manufacturing required by it have to be outsourced, which inevitably involves us technology. The same is true for SMIC, which cannot be separated from American technology.
As a result, as the ban is gradually tightened, Qualcomm, Samsung, SK Hynix, micron, TSMC, including SMIC, have successively stated that they will no longer be able to contract for Huawei chips.
At present, due to the chip ban, the channel price of Kirin chip based terminal products is generally rising, with the average price of various models rising from 100 yuan to 400 yuan. At the same time, there are also shortages.
This is not the end of the story. At present, the Sino US relations, the global epidemic situation and the US election are all in uncertainty. The US governments ban on Huawei will change.
Huawei Hisilicon recently chartered a plane to transport 120 million Kirin and related chips back. According to the official forecast data of Huaweis mobile phone sales in 2020, even if the sales of high-end computers are suspended in the future, the 120 million chip products can maintain the use of its smartphone products for more than half a year. In this buffer period, Huawei, on the one hand, strives for the relaxation of the ban, on the other hand, it waits for changes in the general situation.
Huawei has few good solutions in the short term
Source: Beijing News
From a technical point of view, the chip itself will be damaged if it is overloaded. In fact, foreign servers will replace the chips even if they are not broken after they are used for a period of time.
Whats more, it should be noted that this kind of substitution can only be applied in the fields of national economy and peoples livelihood regardless of cost. These areas have a distinctive feature, that is, the demand is small, and there is no market competition. For example, even if there are performance requirements, the performance requirements are not gradually pushed up, or there are no cost constraints, or there are no cost performance constraints.
These areas are similar to satellites and missiles. In these areas, Chinas independence has been developing well. There is no market competition for the achievements of this kind of research and development. If we dont sell any of them, its a success.
But mobile phones cant. The competition in the consumer electronics market is very fierce, and it can be said that there is a long way to go before we lose anything, especially in the mobile phone market. In recent years, every new product has been released every year, and the winners are just a little better. This kind of replacement will inevitably lead to the mobile phone if there are major defects in performance, volume and endurance, and there will be no market competitiveness at all. Whats more, Huawei often needs tens of millions of chips for the chips it needs. It is not feasible to replace them with old chips. Therefore, there is almost no good way to deal with the sudden strategic difficulties such as global chip outage in the short term.
Other domestic brands will get great development opportunities
At the same time, we must pay attention to the fact that the US cut off supply to Huawei, not to all Chinese mobile phone manufacturers. Xiaomi, vivo, oppo and ZTE can be supplied normally.
After ZTE was sanctioned by the United States, some people once said that Huawei chips could be used by ZTE. In fact, Huaweis chips are under the control of a series of protocols and cant give them to anyone they want. Today, we all understand the situation. Therefore, just as SMIC is a Chinese enterprise, it should also abide by the policies of the United States. These enterprises can not help Huawei.
In fact, these enterprises will get great strategic opportunities.
But objectively speaking, Xiaomi, oppo and vivo have indeed gained great strategic opportunities. Whether Huawei draws a pause or continues to acquire some low-end chips and produce some low-end mobile phones, other domestic manufacturers will replace Huawei. However, they may not be able to stand in Huaweis current industrial chain position.
Source: Beijing News
This feature is determined by the scale effect of technological products. According to the European smartphone market data released by counterpoint in the second quarter of this year, the market share of Xiaomi and oppo doubled, while Huaweis share in the market fell sharply. It seems that Xiaomi and oppo are filling the gap left by Huawei mobile phones in the European market.
In addition, in the domestic market, consumers face millet, oppo and other brands, which are all domestic brands. Naturally, consumers will choose the ones with higher performance and higher cost performance. Huawei products will lack cost performance.
When other mobile phone manufacturers are more open to the outside world, it must mean that they will quickly gain technical advantages over Huawei. Emotionally, this may be hard to accept, but from the perspective of Chinas market economy and technological progress, it may be the least bad result.
Huawei can continue, just wait for the opportunity
Even as a mobile phone brand, Huawei cant support it under the heavy pressure of the US government ban, but as a mobile phone component supplier, Huawei can still survive.
For example, Huawei has now started the screen driver chip project, formulated a series of new projects to be researched and developed, and even can only reduce the dimension to make cars or OLED drivers, and develop other mobile phone peripheral products such as powering notebook computers and tablets.
In addition, Hongmeng has placed great hopes on the possible transformation of Huawei in the future. Recently, Huawei officially released Hongmeng System 2.0. Yu also announced that the beta version of Hongmeng OS will be released to domestic developers in December this year, and Huawei mobile phones will fully support Hongmeng OS 2.0 next year.
At the same time, under the constant pressure of the US government, Huaweis own HMS ecology has gradually taken shape, providing the basis for mobile phones equipped with Hongmeng system in the future. As the B plan of other manufacturers, Hongmeng can also survive.
In terms of 5g, Huawei delivers hundreds of thousands of base stations every year. Many chips are 28nm and above, and Intel and other manufacturers have also obtained the U.S. shipping license. At present, 7-nanometer chips and spare parts are well stocked at the base station, which is expected to support the business development for several years.
Of course, the above assumption is only the worst case and may not happen. Huaweis exit will make the whole mobile phone industry chain lose efficiency, which also means that the ban may still be lifted or partially lifted in the future.
At present, Huaweis chip inventory is enough to support the beginning of next year. Now, Huawei needs to wait for changes in the international situation and the domestic situation in the United States.
In fact, Huawei has not given up its efforts under the cut off supply.
Dont stop, dont pause, work together! At the 2020 Huawei developer conference, Huawei sends a positive signal with such an opening remark.
On September 1, Huawei Xinsheng community released a summary of the discussion between Guo Ping, chairman of Huaweis rotating chairman, and new employees, entitled dont waste an opportunity for a crisis.. At the chip level, Guo Ping said, for us, we will continue to invest in Hisilicon, and at the same time, we will help our front-end partners improve and build their own capabilities. I believe that in a few years we will have a stronger Hisense.
It is reported that Huawei has launched a project called Nanniwan. The project aims to avoid the application of American technology in the process of manufacturing end products.
Liu YuanJu (columnist)
Editor: Ke Rui proofread by: Wang Xin
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