This year, the novel coronavirus pneumonia affected the total area of commercial housing sales. The National Bureau of statistics data showed that in the first 8 months, the sales area of commercial housing in China was 984 million 860 thousand square meters, down 3.3% from the same period last year. The coming of the mid autumn National Day holiday is the first long holiday after the epidemic situation in China is basically stable. Whether the transaction volume of the real estate market can bring surprise to the market is also the concern of real estate enterprises.
According to media reports, Evergrande held a marketing conference at 10:00 p.m. on September 6, and officially issued the marketing target for September and October, that is, the monthly sales volume will reach 100 billion yuan.
In order to achieve the goal, Evergrande has launched a 30% discount policy for national real estate, and has also launched additional discounts such as online purchase of 2000 yuan to 20000 yuan, and a maximum of 8.8% off the end of the liquidation.
In mid September, some real estate developers in Nanning also launched price reduction and promotion. According to Nanning evening news, Wuxiang South Construction and engineering city has launched a 9 housing source, with down payment as low as 130000 yuan; Baoneng City, Jianfa central seal and Jinlin Jiuxi, which are high price improvement projects with complete tiexueshang around Wuxiang lake, also have different degrees of preferential measures.
Under the promotion activities, Jinjiu continued to warm up, and the trading volume was also relatively active. According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, in the first ten days of September, the overall transaction of the market was still active, with 12.15 million square meters of commercial housing in 30 hot cities, up 5.6% month on month and 26% higher than the same period in 2019.
However, the active trading volume of the Jinjiu property market does not mean that real estate speculation can make a comeback. Housing speculation is still the main policy keynote of the current real estate market regulation. Therefore, some hot cities have recently introduced a number of policies to regulate the overheating of the market.
Shell financial reporters noted that in September alone, Hangzhou, Dongguan, Shenyang, Chengdu, Shenzhen and other cities introduced new policies related to real estate, mainly focusing on increasing the supply of residential land and strictly examining the qualification of purchasing houses.
For example, on September 14, Chengdu issued a notice saying that it would increase the supply of residential land and optimize the supply structure. The proportion of residential land in business land should not be less than 60%, and the area with tight supply and demand should not be less than 70%. Priority should be given to ensuring the supply of affordable housing land.
At the same time, it stipulates that we should continue to implement the differentiated credit policy, strictly examine the source of down payment funds for house purchase, and strictly prevent the illegal transfer of consumer loans and personal business loans to purchase houses.
Prior to September 4, Hangzhou also issued a notice to the outside world, saying that for hot commodity housing projects, real estate development enterprises should formulate sales plans in accordance with the principle of giving priority to the purchase of houses by families without houses, increase the preferential proportion of housing resources of families without houses, the commercial housing projects with the inclination ratio of housing resources reaching 80%, and the houses obtained by families without houses by way of preferential purchase shall be registered through online signing of sales and purchase contracts It shall not be listed for trading within 5 years from the date of the listing.
In addition, the circular also made it clear that those who settled in the city by way of parents affiliation with their adult children must be three years old before they can purchase new commercial housing and second-hand housing within the citys purchase limit.
Experts suggest: do not rush to grab the house, or at the end of the year or more preferential
On the one hand, there is a warm wind in the property market of Jinjiu, and on the other hand, hot cities constantly introduce regulatory policies to cool down the property market. So, in this case of cold and warm interwoven, is the silver ten of the property market worth looking forward to during this years mid autumn National Day holiday?
In an interview with shell financial reporter, Zhang Bo, President of anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, said frankly that from the perspective of the fundamentals of the real estate market, at present, the number of cities whose overall housing price growth is slowing down is increasing. In addition to individual cities, the market supply and demand have been relatively balanced, and the tightening pace of regulation has also released obvious signals to the market. Therefore, it is very difficult to have irrational property market heat during the 11th period It is more difficult to see a large increase in the volume of sexual intercourse nationwide.
Indeed, shell financial reporters learned that many real estate companies have prepared for the mid autumn National Day holiday promotion. A front-line real estate employee told the reporter: some of the real estate projects our company follows will carry out activities to promote sales during the 11 period. This years market is not good, so I think that the 11 can push a wave. Now all the real estate companies use price for volume, especially those in urgent need of cash flow According to our current understanding of the situation, there will be more people who make an appointment to see the house during the holiday, and the estimated turnover will also increase.
This years gold nine silver ten is still a big probability event
It is worth mentioning that when the property market enters the golden nine silver ten, the supply of commercial housing is also increasing. According to the national inventory report of 100 cities issued by Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute in late September, as of the end of August, the total inventory of newly built commercial residential buildings in 100 cities nationwide was 484.38 million square meters, with a month on month increase of 0.8% and a year-on-year increase of 7.5%.
However, some experts believe that the rising inventory data is not a negative signal at this time, which not only shows that the real estate enterprises have increased their initiative in pushing prices and the pace of sales promotion is accelerated, but also that the market is relatively abundant in housing, which helps to boost the transaction volume of the corresponding cities.
On the whole, looking forward to the golden nine silver ten, Zhang Bo believes that the occurrence of gold nine silver ten this year may still be a high probability event. Under the premise of stable short-term market environment and policy keynote, real estate enterprises will continue to increase the action of selling interest and promote the rapid release of house purchase demand.
Looking forward to the whole years property market, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, believes that from the current market trend, the activity of the property market has increased significantly, and it is expected that the market will continue to soar in the fourth quarter. From the year-on-year decrease of sales, according to the monthly rising data from May to August, the transaction volume of the whole year is expected to be close to or exceed the historical record set in 2019. The impact of the epidemic on the real estate market has passed, and the follow-up market will continue to heat up. However, the frequent introduction of regulatory policies, although not enough to make the real estate market depressed, will also control the rise in the warm degree. Zhang Dawei said. According to Northeast Securities Research Report, the traditional golden nine silver ten is coming, and the fourth quarter is also the traditional selling season for real estate enterprises. It is expected that the sales growth rate in one month will remain at a high level, and the annual turnover growth rate is expected to achieve a year-on-year positive growth. Source: Wang Xiaowu, editor in charge of Beijing News_ NF
Looking forward to the whole years property market, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, believes that from the current market trend, the activity of the property market has increased significantly, and it is expected that the market will continue to soar in the fourth quarter. From the year-on-year decrease of sales, according to the monthly rising data from May to August, the transaction volume of the whole year is expected to be close to or exceed the historical record set in 2019.