A shares closed down in September, market value shrunk by 4 trillion, what risks should be paid attention to after the festival?

category:Finance
 A shares closed down in September, market value shrunk by 4 trillion, what risks should be paid attention to after the festival?


The Shanghai index fell more than 5% in September

On September 30, the three major stock indexes of a share rose and fell. The Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly by 0.2% to close at 3218.05; the Shenzhen Composite Index rose slightly by 0.05% to 12907.45; and the gem rose 0.44% to close at 2574.76. Plate rotation, closed down the majority, 28 shenwanyi class industry 6 rose slightly.

The market closed in September, and the index fell in the month of volatility. In the 22 trading days, the Shanghai index had 14 closing and falling days, with a cumulative decline of 5.23%, with the highest rising point reaching 3425.63 points and the lowest falling to 3202.34 points; the gem index fell by 5.63% in September, up and down half of the trading day, with an intraday maximum of 2789.12 points and a minimum of 2474.7 points. The market value of all a shares decreased by 4 trillion yuan from 82.64 trillion yuan on August 31 to 78.64 trillion yuan on September 30.

An analyst told the international financial news that the decline in the peripheral stock market and the impact of the global epidemic situation were important factors affecting the weakening of the A-share market in September. In addition, investor Cheng Yu told reporters that compared with the profitability of listed companies, the value space is not too large, limiting the A-share rise space. Therefore, from the perspective of risk pricing, the upward pressure of a shares is actually greater than before.

The turnover of the two markets was 540 billion yuan today. During the whole September, the popularity of the two cities was not high, the fund sentiment was cautious, and the trading willingness of both sides was not strong, with an average turnover of 768.3 billion yuan in 22 trading days. Some analysts told reporters that the recent decline in market trading volume shows that the market trading sentiment is not high, the market continues to decline space is relatively limited, investors are waiting for the opportunity to operate.

32.8 billion yuan of capital flight in the North

In September, Beishang capital mainly sold Guizhou Maotai, China Ping An, Yaoming Kant and Yili, with net sales of 7.582 billion yuan, 2.29 billion yuan, 1.581 billion yuan and 1.31 billion yuan respectively. It mainly purchased stocks of Hengrui pharmaceutical and Industrial Bank, with net purchase amounts of 902 million yuan and 791 million yuan respectively. Beishang capital also reduced the positions of Wuliangye, BOE A and other stocks, with net sales of 2.402 billion yuan and 2.014 billion yuan respectively, and increased the positions of Ningde times and BYD, with net purchase amounts of 2.633 billion yuan and 1.311 billion yuan respectively.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said in an interview with the international financial journal that the short-term flow of foreign capital has a certain impact on market confidence, but these are all transient phenomena. With the A-share market incorporated into the three major international index systems of MSCI, FTSE Russell and standard & Poors Dow Jones index, the channel for foreign capital to flow in and out of a shares has been fully opened. In the long run, foreign capital will continue to flow into the A-share market. From the perspective of investment strategy, consumption and technology are still the two main lines of market attention.

There are many risks in October

Zhang Ting, a senior Macro Analyst at GESHANG wealth, told reporters that due to the recent increase in overseas market volatility and the second outbreak of overseas epidemic, a shares in the fourth quarter are still faced with more uncertainties, especially in October, suggesting that investors should be relatively cautious.

But Zhang Ting also believes that at present, the basic macroeconomic support, A-share decline is limited. In addition, October may be a good operating time point, and the bottom of 3000 point is very solid. This point corresponds to the position where the plate in the cycle of early July rose sharply. In the short term, the Shanghai composite index fluctuates from 3100 to 3450. If it drops to around 3100, it is a better operation time point.

Looking forward to October, we believe that with the narrowing of valuation structural repair space, the impact of performance driving force on a shares will gradually rise; with the overall fundamental repair nearly in place, the performance driving force in October is expected to be more inter industry differentiation than consistency change, and a shares will pay attention to the structural opportunities brought by performance differentiation again after the end of the quarter and after the double festival. Zhongyuan securities analysis that, after the festival is expected to appear performance driven valuation structural repair market, the main industry valuation is expected to get support. Nomura Orient International Securities pointed out in the research report that if the overseas market fluctuates greatly during the National Day holiday due to overseas epidemic situation, financial policy not as expected and other geopolitical risks, a shares may face market adjustment risk after the festival. The current 1.4 trillion financing balance is easy to enlarge the potential fluctuation of market adjustment in the short term. It is suggested that investors should appropriately control the position level and increase the risk of market adjustment Defense plate (such as medicine) configuration to avoid potential market volatility risk. Reporter Zhu Denghua editor Yao Hui responsible editor Bai Yanbing_ NF4368

Nomura Orient International Securities pointed out in the research report that if the overseas market fluctuates greatly during the National Day holiday due to overseas epidemic situation, financial policy not as expected and other geopolitical risks, a shares may face market adjustment risk after the festival. The current 1.4 trillion financing balance is easy to enlarge the potential fluctuation of market adjustment in the short term. It is suggested that investors should appropriately control the position level and increase the risk of market adjustment Defense plate (such as medicine) configuration to avoid potential market volatility risk.

Reporter Zhu Denghua

Editor Yao Hui

Responsible editor Bai Yanbing