How does the third quarter of A-share market lead the world in the fourth quarter

 How does the third quarter of A-share market lead the world in the fourth quarter

Closing of A-shares in the third quarter: volume and price rise at the same time, with a turnover of 69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 130%

On September 30, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose and fell, and the third quarter a shares officially closed.

After several months of continuous gains, a shares fell into adjustment in September, with Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen composite index falling 5.23% and 6.18% respectively, and transaction volume also shrank significantly.

It is worth noting that the performance of the A-share market in the third quarter is also in the leading position in the worlds major markets. The performance of Shanghai composite index is better than that of Japanese stock market in the same period, as well as that of most European and American stock markets in the same period.

From the performance of specific sectors, the national defense and military industry sector led the rise in the third quarter, with an overall increase of more than 30%, with leisure services, electrical equipment, non bank finance, automobile and other sectors taking the lead. Communication, media and other sectors performed relatively poorly.

In terms of specific stocks, after excluding the secondary new shares listed in 2020, 2375 stocks rose in the third quarter, accounting for more than 60% of the total number of corresponding stocks, of which 208 shares increased by more than 50%. Among the top gainers are small cap stocks with a market value of less than 5 billion yuan, and many stocks with a market value of tens of billions or even more than 100 billion yuan. For example, Great Wall Motor rose 147.67% in the third quarter, and its market value has reached 142.954 billion yuan.

However, while most of the stocks rose, there were still a lot of stocks in a terrible decline. More than 10 stocks, such as fengfengtui and * ST Zhongchang, fell by more than 40% in the third quarter, reflecting the sharp differentiation of the market.

Look at the four seasons agency this way

So, for the fourth quarter of A-share, how do institutions look?

According to the fourth quarter investment strategy report of Bohai Securities, the recovery trend of the endogenous growth momentum represented by the investment and consumption of manufacturing industry in the fourth quarter and the complementary force represented by infrastructure investment will become the leading marginal variables of domestic economic recovery.

Bohai Securities believes that in the second quarter, with the continuous improvement of industrial enterprise benefits, the performance of listed companies rebounded significantly, and the impact of the epidemic situation was basically digested. However, the PMI shows that the difference in domestic demand leads to the obvious differentiation of downstream demand between large and medium-sized enterprises and small enterprises. At present, the overseas epidemic situation is facing two waves of risk, and the improvement of demand side will depend more on domestic demand. Therefore, in the short term, in the process of gradual economic recovery in the fourth quarter, medium and large enterprises will benefit more. However, in the medium and long term, small enterprises may become a potential risk point of economic operation under the background of domestic demand inclining to medium and large enterprises due to their low anti risk ability.

In terms of market strategy, Bohai Securities believes that in the profit-making side, the short-term economic recovery has a certain support for the profitability, and at the same time, the revenue and profit capitalization also contribute to the performance of listed companies. However, considering the development of the epidemic situation, the hidden worries in the medium and long term of the economy and the derivative problems of small and micro enterprises caused by the capitalizing process, the performance side can not promote the development of a larger market. At present, the valuation side is relatively moderate, and there is no obvious underestimation or even structural overestimation risk. The factors that are more likely to affect the market in the fourth quarter come from the fluctuation of risk preference, including the external events of the US election and the structural opportunities that may be triggered during the implementation of the 14th five year plan, which may bring about the expected volatility of the market.

According to the fourth quarter strategy report of Aijian securities, driven by abundant liquidity, the market rose mainly by raising valuation at the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter. The market sentiment was hot, but at the same time, the risk was also accumulating. The regulation and control of the market by the management is conducive to the rational return of the market. The control of the epidemic, the recovery of the economy and the return to normal monetary policy will help to pull the market from trading to investment. Aijian securities is expected to have a market style switch in the fourth quarter, and the switch is carried out in shock, so we need to choose investment opportunities from the perspective of rational investment.

Based on the judgment of the market in the fourth quarter, Aijian Securities believes that the market volatility should be paid special attention to in October. The disclosure period of the third quarter report is a pressure on the overvalued varieties and a driving force for those with low valuations. The flow of funds in them will inevitably cause fluctuations. At the same time, in the month before the US election, it is inevitable that geopolitical fluctuations will intensify. Global markets have also become more volatile, which is why October should be cautious.

However, Aijian Securities believes that the adjustment of the market is not a bad thing, it is just a change of style. We need to put more energy on the economic recovery, and industries and plates that benefit more from the economic recovery will gradually become the leading role. At the same time, the driving force of related themes in the policy intensive period is strong, and the trading opportunities are increased. This time point is expected to be at the end of October and the beginning of November. At this time, the performance, geography and even policy will become clearer, the margin of market security will increase, and the time window will come.