India worries about war? Expert: if defeated, Indias ruling party will lose its legitimacy

 India worries about war? Expert: if defeated, Indias ruling party will lose its legitimacy

China and India are both BRICs and SCO member states. This year marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and India. Why does the Indian government suddenly and continuously create frictions and escalate contradictions in the relations between the two countries? Red Star News reporter interviewed Dr. Feng Chuanlu, a researcher and postgraduate supervisor of the Indian Ocean regional research center of Yunnan University of Finance and economics.

Focus 1: transferring domestic conflicts is not the main purpose of India

Novel coronavirus pneumonia in India has risen to 3853406 forenoon at 8 a.m. local time, according to CCTV news reports from the Ministry of health of India. 3. In the past 24 hours, there were 83883 new confirmed cases in India, the largest one-day increase since the outbreak in India and the largest increase in the number of new confirmed cases in a single day in the world. In addition, Indias real economic growth rate in the second quarter of this year was - 23.9%, the worst situation since statistics were available in 1997.

In this regard, there are some views that the Indian government needs to play the China card to transfer domestic contradictions, so as to enhance the support rate of Indian Prime Minister modi. Regarding this view, Dr. Feng Chuanlu said in an interview with Red Star News reporters: Indias actions and attitude towards China have a certain relationship with the uncontrolled domestic epidemic situation, the economic downturn and the upsurge of populism. Modis series of actions have indeed calmed the domestic public sentiment and the consideration of the opposition such as the Congress party, so as to maintain the political and social stability of India. But these are not the main reasons.

Chinas mobile phone ban on June 29

Even the self-reliance policy recently mentioned by the Indian government has some considerations in terms of foreign strategy or China policy, Feng added

Focus 2: India mistakenly believes that the Libra of the dragon elephant dispute is leaning towards itself

Feng Chuanlu stressed that it is necessary to analyze the root cause of Indias constant destruction of Sino Indian Relations from the logic of knowing and doing.

First of all, India mistakenly believes that the scale of the Dragon elephant battle is leaning towards itself. Indian Prime Minister modi put forward a loud slogan in his first term: India must become a leading power. In addition, Indias strategic decision-making leaders often say that todays India is not India of 1962.

Feng Chuanlu said that great changes have taken place in Indias understanding of China, and increasingly regard China as a strategic competitor or even a strategic threat. Moreover, the Indian side thinks that China has some strategic weaknesses that can be exploited - that is, how to avoid coping with the strategic pressure from the East and the west at the same time is the biggest problem facing China at present, because the United States is exerting great pressure on China in the Asia Pacific direction.

Feng Chuanlu said that the Indian government believes that it is now in a period of international strategic opportunities. In the context of the hawkish strategy of the United States, it has unique geographical advantages, which can control the whole South Asia and overlook the entire Indian Ocean. Indias judgments have made it wonder whether it has the opportunity to gain some strategic support from outside. These are unrealistic, Feng stressed

Chinese border soldiers patrolling the Sino Indian border. According to Xinhua news agency

Focus 3: strategic speculation is a major preference of Indias international strategy

So why does India continue to create frictions against the backdrop of deteriorating Sino US relations? In response, Feng Chuanlu said that Indias international strategy has two major preferences: one is to emphasize the so-called self Strategic Autonomy; the other is to maximize its strategic interests through strategic speculation. According to Feng Chuanlu, India is looking for an opportunity for strategic speculation, and the suppression of China by the United States has just given India this opportunity - it is eager to gain benefits from both China and the United States.

In addition, Feng Chuanlu also said that India had a wrong understanding in its exploration of China. In the handling of the donglang incident, the Chinese government has been very restrained. After the incident, the Chinese government also made a lot of diplomatic efforts, which soon contributed to the warming and rising trend of Sino Indian relations. However, Chinas restraint has created an illusion among Indias decision-makers, especially the top military officials, that as long as they dare to fight hard with China, they will bring more strategic returns in line with their own interests. In the context of intensified strategic competition between China and the United States, this may become the long-term keynote of Indias future China policy. Feng Chuanlu analyzed.

However, Feng Chuanlu believes that India may not be willing to be the pawn of the United States. It is not a natural partnership with the United States. India has the consideration of Strategic Autonomy and the pursuit of great power status. In the long run, if it defines itself as a rising country, it is likely to be defined as a strategic competitor by the United States in the future.

Concern 4: the possibility of a border war between China and India is small

In addition, Feng Chuanlu believes that if we push to an extreme situation, in case of war, India cant afford to fight, consume or suffer defeat. Once defeated in the war, Indias ruling BJP will also lose its ruling legitimacy at home. In the eyes of the United States, India will become useless and lose its authority in front of other small countries in South Asia. This also determines that Indias strong China is actually very limited.

As a matter of fact, as early as October 31, 2019, the Indian government announced the implementation of the Jammu Kashmir reorganization law, the establishment of Jammu Kashmir central government region and Ladakh central government region, which included part of Chinas territory under Indias administrative jurisdiction. Chinas first timetable showed strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition, and called on both sides to settle down in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations We should pay attention to the resolutions and bilateral agreements and settle them properly by peaceful means.

In order to improve its transportation capacity, India has closed the highway leading to the border for military supply only. According to Indian defense news

Feng Chuanlu said that among Chinas global diplomatic objects, India is the only country with multiple identities, such as neighboring country, big country, developing country and emerging economy. In fact, China is the same for India. This determines that the relationship between China and India is both important and complex for both sides, implying that the overall trend of Sino Indian relations will have a great impact on the structure of the international system and the situation of India Pacific region.

When talking about how we should deal with the constant provocation from India, Feng Chuanlu believed that China should form a clear understanding of Indias cognition and behavior, and be well prepared for the ideological preparation of struggle for peace. As state councilor and foreign minister Wang Yi said, we will not take the initiative to complicate and expand the situation, but we should also firmly safeguard our sovereignty and territorial integrity.

On the other hand, the game should start with the small countries around India and have a strategic thinking of Integrating Small and stabilizing the big. For example, strengthening strategic interaction with Nepal, Pakistan and other South Asian countries will help to check and balance Indias tough policy towards China. In terms of diplomacy, we should continue to maintain communication and interaction with India, actively control friction, prevent differences from rising into disputes, and prevent disputes from turning into wars.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: India should immediately stop all provocations

On September 1, the Ministry of foreign affairs responded to the latest developments on the Sino Indian border and demanded that India immediately stop all provocative acts.

At a regular press conference on the same day, foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said that on August 31, the Indian army broke the consensus reached in the previous multi-level talks between the two sides, illegally crossed the line again in the area south of Bangong Lake in the western section of the Sino Indian border and near the reqin mountain pass, openly provoked, and the border situation was once again tense. Indias actions have seriously violated Chinas territorial sovereignty, relevant agreements and important consensus between the two countries, and seriously damaged peace and tranquility in the border areas. This is contrary to the efforts of both sides to promote the relaxation and cooling of the local situation for some time. China firmly opposes this and has made solemn representations to India, demanding that India immediately stop all provocative acts, immediately withdraw illegal personnel crossing the line, and immediately stop any actions that lead to the escalation and complexity of the situation.

In response to a question raised by an Indian Broadcasting Corporation reporter about China and India accusing each other of taking provocative actions, Hua Chunying said that since the founding of the peoples Republic of China for more than 70 years, China has never initiated any war or conflict and has never occupied an inch of land of other countries. In fact, Chinas border defense forces have always strictly followed the actual line of control and never crossed the line. India should respect the facts, take practical actions in the good faith of safeguarding the overall situation of China India relations, and work with China to safeguard peace and tranquility in the border areas.

(function(){( window.slotbydup=window .slotbydup||[]).push({id:u5811557,container:ssp_ 5811557, async:true }Source: Red Star News Editor: Lin Qihui_ NB13068