India worries about war? Expert: if defeated, Indias ruling party will lose its legitimacy

 India worries about war? Expert: if defeated, Indias ruling party will lose its legitimacy

China and India are both BRICs and SCO member states. This year marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and India. Why does the Indian government suddenly and continuously create frictions and escalate contradictions in the relations between the two countries? Red Star News reporter interviewed Dr. Feng Chuanlu, a researcher and postgraduate supervisor of the Indian Ocean regional research center of Yunnan University of Finance and economics.

Novel coronavirus pneumonia in India has risen to 3853406 forenoon at 8 a.m. local time, according to CCTV news reports from the Ministry of health of India. 3. In the past 24 hours, there were 83883 new confirmed cases in India, the largest one-day increase since the outbreak in India and the largest increase in the number of new confirmed cases in a single day in the world. In addition, Indias real economic growth rate in the second quarter of this year was - 23.9%, the worst situation since statistics were available in 1997.

In this regard, there are some views that the Indian government needs to play the China card to transfer domestic contradictions, so as to enhance the support rate of Indian Prime Minister modi. Regarding this view, Dr. Feng Chuanlu said in an interview with Red Star News reporters: Indias actions and attitude towards China have a certain relationship with the uncontrolled domestic epidemic situation, the economic downturn and the upsurge of populism. Modis series of actions have indeed calmed the domestic public sentiment and the consideration of the opposition such as the Congress party, so as to maintain the political and social stability of India. But these are not the main reasons.

A screenshot of the statement on banning Chinese mobile phone applications issued by the Ministry of information technology of India on June 29

Focus 2: India mistakenly believes that the Libra of the dragon elephant dispute is leaning towards itself

Feng Chuanlu stressed that it is necessary to analyze the root cause of Indias constant destruction of Sino Indian Relations from the logic of knowing and doing.

First of all, India mistakenly believes that the scale of the Dragon elephant battle is leaning towards itself. Indian Prime Minister modi put forward a loud slogan in his first term: India must become a leading power. In addition, Indias strategic decision-making leaders often say that todays India is not India of 1962.

Focus 3: strategic speculation is a major preference of Indias international strategy

In addition, Feng Chuanlu also said that India had a wrong understanding in its exploration of China. In the handling of the donglang incident, the Chinese government has been very restrained. After the incident, the Chinese government also made a lot of diplomatic efforts, which soon contributed to the warming and rising trend of Sino Indian relations. However, Chinas restraint has created an illusion among Indias decision-makers, especially the top military officials, that as long as they dare to fight hard with China, they will bring more strategic returns in line with their own interests. In the context of intensified strategic competition between China and the United States, this may become the long-term keynote of Indias future China policy. Feng Chuanlu analyzed.

However, Feng Chuanlu believes that India may not be willing to be the pawn of the United States. It is not a natural partnership with the United States. India has the consideration of Strategic Autonomy and the pursuit of great power status. In the long run, if it defines itself as a rising country, it is likely to be defined as a strategic competitor by the United States in the future.

Concern 4: the possibility of a border war between China and India is small

According to Feng Chuanlu, judging from the current border situation, both China and India have reached a consensus that the front-line forces of the two sides should be organized in batches to break away from contact, while the front-line forces of both sides have actually broken away from contact at most of the confrontation points. The possibility of another border war between China and India is relatively small, and the border war is not in the interests of the two countries.

In addition, Feng Chuanlu believes that if we push to an extreme situation, in case of war, India cant afford to fight, consume or suffer defeat. Once defeated in the war, Indias ruling BJP will also lose its ruling legitimacy at home. In the eyes of the United States, India will become useless and lose its authority in front of other small countries in South Asia. This also determines that Indias strong China is actually very limited.

However, Feng stressed that this does not completely rule out the possibility of India taking more drastic actions. At present, India has increased its sense of military presence in the border areas, especially in the so-called Ladakh central government region. India has deployed more military forces to this area for many times to prepare material reserves in advance for the coming winter.

As a matter of fact, as early as October 31, 2019, the Indian government announced the implementation of the Jammu Kashmir reorganization law, the establishment of Jammu Kashmir central government region and Ladakh central government region, which included part of Chinas territory under Indias administrative jurisdiction. Chinas first timetable showed strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition, and called on both sides to settle down in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations We should pay attention to the resolutions and bilateral agreements and settle them properly by peaceful means.

In order to improve its transportation capacity, India has closed the highway leading to the border for military supply only. According to Indian defense news

Focus 5: the game should be small and stable, actively control friction

Feng Chuanlu said that among Chinas global diplomatic objects, India is the only country with multiple identities, such as neighboring country, big country, developing country and emerging economy. In fact, China is the same for India. This determines that the relationship between China and India is both important and complex for both sides, implying that the overall trend of Sino Indian relations will have a great impact on the structure of the international system and the situation of India Pacific region.

Feng Chuanlu believes that although the founding time of China and India is relatively close, there is a big gap between the comprehensive national strength and international status of the two countries. In addition, in the eyes of the hegemonic powers in the international system, China is a strategic competitor that needs to be contained, and India has become the international strategic cooperation object it needs to attract. Feng Chuanlu said that there are indeed some structural contradictions between China and India, which have become the logical starting point for hegemonic powers in the international system to instigate Sino Indian relations.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: India should immediately stop all provocations

On September 1, the Ministry of foreign affairs responded to the latest developments on the Sino Indian border and demanded that India immediately stop all provocative acts.

At a regular press conference on the same day, foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said that on August 31, the Indian army broke the consensus reached in the previous multi-level talks between the two sides, illegally crossed the line again in the area south of Bangong Lake in the western section of the Sino Indian border and near the reqin mountain pass, openly provoked, and the border situation was once again tense. Indias actions have seriously violated Chinas territorial sovereignty, relevant agreements and important consensus between the two countries, and seriously damaged peace and tranquility in the border areas. This is contrary to the efforts of both sides to promote the relaxation and cooling of the local situation for some time. China firmly opposes this and has made solemn representations to India, demanding that India immediately stop all provocative acts, immediately withdraw illegal personnel crossing the line, and immediately stop any actions that lead to the escalation and complexity of the situation.

At the same time, Hua Chunying stressed that we have noticed that in recent years, Indian media have reported a lot about the increase of Indian troops to the Sino Indian border areas. If it is true, Indias move is inconsistent with the desire of the Chinese and Indian people to live in peace and maintain good, stable and healthy development of China India relations. It is hoped that India will pay attention to Chinas concerns and make practical efforts to maintain peace and tranquility in the border areas and the healthy development of China India relations.

(function(){( window.slotbydup=window .slotbydup||[]).push({id:u5811557,container:ssp_ 5811557, async:true }Source: Red Star News Editor: Lin Qihui_ NB13068