Why does the United States want to decouple from Chinas economy? Is China afraid of decoupling?

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 Why does the United States want to decouple from Chinas economy? Is China afraid of decoupling?


The ten themes are as follows: employment, eradication of new crown, end of dependence on China, health care, education, and bureaucracy, which he calls draining the swamp, protecting the police, ending illegal immigration to protect American workers, innovating for the future, and giving priority to American foreign policy. Together, it forms Trumps Manifesto: fighting for you..

What should trump do to end Americas dependence on China? He also listed some key indicators and measures to bring back 1 million manufacturing jobs from China. As long as they can bring jobs back from China, he gives tax breaks to companies like this, especially in the pharmaceutical and robotics industries. Needless to say, the importance of the pharmaceutical industry has been highlighted under the new epidemic situation. The robot industry is the foundation of the manufacturing industry, which is 100% fee reduction. If there are radishes, there will be sticks. If there are companies that are still disobedient and have to outsource their business to China, you cant be polite. A company like this wont get a contract from the federal government.

We have already attached great importance to listing China as the third largest country. This is a treatment that other countries do not have. But its not just that. Targeting China is the top priority of Trumps tenure plan. Lets take a look, first: employment. Trump has always said that China has taken jobs from the United States. This is aimed at China, no doubt. Second, new epidemic situation. Trump said later, let China take full responsibility for the spread of the virus around the world, so this is also closely related to China. The third is to name China directly, which is needless to say.

This is the case. I think of the tweet that Comrade Jianguo sent last time, just China! He is not only homesick. China is the top priority in his mind. To put an end to Americas dependence on China, to put it another way, is to decouple itself from China, which raises two problems. First, why should the United States decouple from Chinas economy? Second, what should China do? Are we afraid of decoupling?

This is a description of the Sino US relations over the past few decades, and it is also a kind of explanation. On the whole, it seems to make sense, but have you found any doubts? Let me talk about a few doubtful points. One of the doubts is that the United States is a free trade country. It is because of free trade that the United States has risen and become the world hegemony. So why is free trade out of order now? Second, the United States now wants to decouple and implement protectionism, which is a gamble on the countrys fortunes and involves great risks. So why does America believe that protectionism will work? Third, at this critical moment, the United States retreats, which is tantamount to giving up the leadership. Its not like dealing with threats, its more like giving up. Its like the cards cant go on, you have to flip the table. This is very unproductive, which means to tell the world clearly that their own rules cant play. Shouldnt the hawks take the initiative to compete with China in Global trade?

There are so many problems in this version of the explanation. The fundamental reason is that it underestimates the United States, understands the United States too simply, and even understands trump too simply. As I said in the previous video, the United States has always been an isolationist country. Advocating free trade and leading the global order is not the normal of the United States. Is trump going back to this isolationism? Not exactly. Trump is talking about not relying on China, not on other countries. Please note that in Trumps re-election plan, there is also a clause that he wants schools to teach American exceptionalism on the issue of education.

What is American exceptionalism is to believe in a myth: America is a city on the top of a mountain, and God saves the world through America. Notice that God does not save through a church, but through a nation. The country is, of course, exceptional and special. The Bible says, you are the light of the world. A city built on a mountain cannot be hidden. . Reagan liked it very much. To put it bluntly, he believed that the United States was a Lighthouse. To inculcate American exceptionalism, we should start with dolls.

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Why give China special treatment in Trumps re-election plan? (source: video synthesis)

Robert Zoellick, former World Bank Presidentuff08 RobertB.Zoellick uff09A new book, America in the world, says that the relationship between the United States and its allies and enemies has always been a mixture of interventionism and isolationism. It was the United States that built the high wall, and it was the United States that invaded Iraq; it could contain the Soviet Union in the name of freedom, or support dictators in Latin America and southern Africa. We can call for the independence of the colonies oppressed by Britain, but when the British leave, we can bring the oil-rich Gulf area into the sphere of influence. This is a bit like what we Chinese call the combination of Confucianism and Legalism. We can do whatever is beneficial. This is the true face of the United States.

On this point, the United States is much more difficult to deal with than Britain. After becoming number one in the world, Britain really believes in free trade, at least more than the United States. It fully believes in the profit-seeking nature of capital and believes that the market allocation of resources is the optimal solution. Holding the leading industries of the first industrial revolution, such as the textile industry, and occupying the vast overseas colonial market, Britain tried its best to export overseas capital. Financial institutions made money, but the domestic investment was insufficient to cultivate new technologies and establish new industrial manufacturing sectors. As a result, Germany and the United States rose rapidly in new industrial sectors such as electricity and steel, and even reversed the trend. By taking advantage of Britains free trade, they imported the new products of the second industrial revolution into the British market. With the domestic market, new industries developed rapidly.

Britains calculation is that the colonies provide me with raw materials, I export manufactured goods overseas and open the door to free trade. I will certainly make money. However, the problem is that British capital makes money overseas, forming inertia and neglecting domestic industrial upgrading. It is just for other industries in the United States and Germany to upgrade their industries, while the United States will give priority to other industries and industries to upgrade, while the United States will give priority to its domestic industries and industries, while Germany will give priority to its domestic industries and industries.

What are the key differences? Through the protection and guidance of policies, Germany and the United States pay attention to the domestic economic cycle. As long as domestic demand increases, they can provide economic power. Why can the United States engage in isolationism for such a long time? Why can it swing because the United States does not rely so much on the external market and can selectively decouple from other economies through tariff and other measures.

The United States caught up with the second industrial revolution, and the third industrial revolution, the information technology revolution, was far ahead. However, the United States is a capitalist country after all. The impact of the information technology revolution on the world is unprecedented, and there is no experience to refer to, but it has caused a more serious imbalance in development. Under the changes of the world economic structure, the United States has made a choice without foresight, to meet the interests of capital in globalization, seize the tertiary industry and high-end manufacturing, and allow most manufacturing industries to transfer to other countries.

In fact, if it was not for the emergence of China, it would not be a problem for the United States to do so, because the benefits of global division of labor are obvious. The American people can consume a large number of cheap industrial products, and the labor cost of enterprises will be greatly reduced. With petrodollars and military hegemony in hand, when national interests are threatened, the United States can completely control the pace and easily eliminate the pursuers, such as holding down the momentum of Japans semiconductor industry. Through the global order dominated by itself, the United States can turn the whole world into its sphere of influence and make the whole world internal circulation. But notice, the premise is that there is no China.

Now that China has this size, the United States can only put it back and return to its successful experience, protectionism, with the aim of made in the United States. What is the status quo? The United States has not been replaced by China in high-end industries, nor has there been a real fourth industrial revolution. In other words, the competition in science and technology between China and the United States will be a long-term, protracted and seesaw war. This is different from that of the United Kingdom. The United States turns back quickly. The United States wants to move its manufacturing industry back, which is the same as investing in domestic basic scientific research. To prepare for the continuous upgrading of the industry, it is necessary to cultivate domestic demand. The strong blue collar middle class, for China and the United States, is the key to the establishment of economic internal circulation. Whose social structure is more balanced and reasonable, whose economy can breathe smoothly.

At present, Chinas employment structure and polarization between the rich and the poor are better than those in the United States. Recently, Ren Zhengfei said that he understood that American politicians wanted Huawei to die. Mr. Ren did not say why Huawei attached importance to basic research. Indeed, basic research is the key to the next industrial revolution and upgrading of high-end industries. Huawei attaches great importance to basic research companies, of course, the United States wants to fight, but basic research is uncertain, and it is not urgent for the United States to strangle.

I would like to share a view that companies like Huawei have accelerated the construction of Internet infrastructure, which has significantly improved Chinas social structure and efficiency. There are not only jobs in the 5g construction industry chain, but also new jobs generated by 5g. Trump attaches great importance to employment. If you look at the employment in the United States, what are the large number of jobs, retail and supermarket salesmen. But the Internet has helped China to emerge with many new formats, such as takeaway, which is expected to become a blue collar middle class.

What about China? The most important thing, of course, is to establish its own internal economic cycle. In fact, the Tang Dynasty was the most open in history. Although foreigners were allowed to come in, they did not take the initiative to attract foreign immigrants or preach to foreign countries. The Silk Road was not opened up by China on its own initiative. Through the Silk Road, more things were imported from the west to China, and less from China, and most of them were sent by foreigners.

The mountains and rivers are different, the wind and the moon are the same day. Japanese monks come to Changan to learn a lot. However, the people of the Tang Dynasty went eastward to Japan to influence them. We can say that Jianzhen was also the Japanese monk who asked him to go. The Tang Dynasty had strict restrictions on going abroad without the consent of the imperial court, so Jianzhen crossed the border six times to avoid being noticed by the government. His story just reflects the Tang Dynasty open but not let go.

Do what Americans do, not what Americans say. Today, of course, we should take the initiative to spread Chinese culture, which does not need to follow the example of the Tang Dynasty. However, the premise of the Tang Dynastys opening up and not letting go is the internal circulation of the economy. It is of course good to have foreign markets, and if they are not, they will not cause fatal damage. This is very important. We should and are already adjusting our economic strategy. Reform and opening up will not end, but some directional decoupling may be passive. What we are facing now is a question of how to deal with and prepare, not how to choose. We have to give up our illusions.

(function(){( window.slotbydup=window .slotbydup||[]).push({id:u5811557,container:ssp_ 5811557, async:true }Source: observer.com editor in charge: Lin Qihui_ NB13068