The two US regard each other as a real threat to the United States. Both sides feel that they have mastered the truth, freedom and justice, that they have fulfilled the values of the founding of the United States and that they can protect peoples safety. The problem is, weve become a society thats almost impossible to convince each other, and people live in their own castles. Giridadadas said.
In the United States, turn on the TV and open the newspaper, and two America will come. On the same news event, the reports of the left and right media often contradict each other.
Fox News headline: trump went to the scene of the riots in kinosha, promising to help enterprises rebuild
CNN news headline: on his way to kinosha, trump used inflammatory language to discuss the demonstration and attacked journalists
Journalists often witness peoples opposition in their reports and interviews. Some protested against police violence and social injustice, while others regarded the protestors as thugs disrupting social order. Some people launched the black lives matter campaign, while others launched the police life matter campaign in response.
On the night of August 29, a member of the far right organization, the Patriot prayer corps, was shot dead in Portland. After that, online video showed that some protestors declared in public that a fascist died tonight. Its not worth dying. The incident came days after a 17-year-old white teenager, Kyle Rittenhouse, shot and killed two protestors in Kenosha, Wisconsin, and his defense lawyers said the teenager was a militia who stood up to protect their homes in the absence of government..
u25b3 Rittenhouse (left) from the associated press
A heated discussion on cold civil war
The term cold civil war does not appear today. In 2018, a Rasmussen poll showed that 31% of American voters were worried that fierce party struggle would trigger the second civil war in five years. In 2017, Dennis Prager, a conservative radio presenter, claimed that Americans were actually in the middle of a second civil war, although not necessarily in the form of violence. In March 2019, Carl Bernstein, a journalist who reported on Watergate, said in an interview that the United States was already in a cold civil war and that the current government was increasingly likely to ignite a hot civil war..
After Freuds death triggered protests across the United States, the discussion about civil war became more intense and concrete. The protests provided a channel for both sides to vent their discontent, and the news events that happened constantly also provided the target of flogging for both sides.
In June, Ben Domenech, a conservative American writer, said, it is shocking and disturbing for white protestors to kneel down and apologize to mobs. The idea of abolishing the police is so crazy Only people who are completely out of touch with reality can speak up to the idea.
David Frum, a former writer of former President Bushs speech, wrote an article satirizing the Conservatives, since we are two countries, we can have two sets of laws and rules: one for friends and one for enemies. Thats why so many trump supporters believe that in the shooting in kinosha, the shooter was out of self-defense, the shooter had the legitimate rights that must be respected, but the dead did not, and none of the victims of this years police shooting incident.
The two parties positions are highly antagonistic, resulting in frequent violence and shooting incidents. Michael Gerson, a Washington Post columnist, points out that organized groups in the United States are using social tensions to promote armed confrontation that could turn into violence. As one activist in Kenosha said, if you kill us alone, we should kill you alone. This is the ideological basis of every society caught in armed conflict.
Americans sense of insecurity is rising rapidly, and the most intuitive sign is that people are crazy about buying guns. The national shooting sports foundation, the U.S. gun trade association, estimates sales of 8.5 million guns from March to July this year, 94% higher than the same period last year. It is worth noting that recently 40% of gun buyers are buying guns for the first time, partly because people are aware of the need to protect themselves in the face of social unrest and civil unrest.
However, some analysts believe that the so-called second civil war is not in the form of violence, but rather a cultural civil war, reflecting the opposition of beliefs.
Senior journalist Thomas ricks wrote an article in foreign policy in 2017 to deduce the evolution of the civil war in the United States. Ricks believes that with the increase of radicalism and digital propaganda, the second American Civil War is more likely to be an asymmetric and unconventional war, which is different from the real weapon of the civil war more than 100 years ago, but centered on consciousness Form, conflict through digital tools.
Russian expert: there may be a hot war between China and the United States, which is very dangerous before the US election
Chinas economic success has broken an important belief in American ideology
Lu Jin: China and the United States are entering a long period of geopolitical confrontation similar to the cold war. The confrontation began when Obama was in office, but was officially and publicly announced by President trump. Although China is now weaker than the United States militarily, we should not forget that at the beginning of the cold war, the Soviet Union was much weaker than the United States. At that time, it did not even have nuclear weapons. I think the current situation in China and the United States can be called the new cold war.
One of the important differences between the new cold war and the cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union in the last century is that the cold war was initiated by the United States unilaterally. During the cold war, both sides were seeking to dominate the world, and both opposing camps claimed that their political and economic systems would eventually win the world. During the cold war, both the United States and the Soviet Union believed that they were moving in the right historical direction. Of course, some people think that ideology is only used as a cover for political interests, but the actual situation is obviously more complicated. I think that ideology and geopolitics are intertwined and jointly affect the foreign policy of the United States and the Soviet Union at that time.
Now it is different from then: the United States and its allies retain the totalitarian ideology of that time, namely, to create an ideal society on a global scale and ultimately solve all the economic and social problems in the world; China has no such global ambition. China has not tried to impose its political and economic system on the world, nor has it tried to expand its sphere of influence. This time, the United States is unilaterally launching a new cold war, while China is only trying to protect itself and its main economic interests. I call this a new type of unilateral cold war..
Global Times: the closure of the Chinese Consulate General in the United States, the introduction of various sanctions against Chinese officials, frequent suppression of Chinese enterprises Similar events have been staged in US Russian relations. Will Sino US relations gradually evolve like the current US Russia relations?
Lu Jin: there are some similarities between us Russia confrontation and US China confrontation, because Washington regards Moscow and Beijing as geopolitical and ideological opponents. However, from the point of view of most American strategists, China is a more dangerous threat, because China has done better economically, breaking an important belief in American ideology that economic prosperity will inevitably bring about a political shift to the western democratic model.
In this context, the US Anti China measures should not be understood as a short-term anomaly, but as a new normal. More such measures will follow. China must learn to live in this situation and stop looking forward to the return of the old days.
Global Times: the outside world is worried about the military conflict between China and the United States. Do you think it is possible?
Lukin: on the whole, its very unlikely. Military conflict can only be initiated by the more powerful side of the United States, but Washington understands that doing so will have a huge repercussion. Both China and the United States have nuclear weapons. Military conflict means great casualties, and it is hard to predict who will win or lose in the end. Military conflict may also lead to a comprehensive international nuclear conflict, or lead to the collapse of the global economy and bring disaster to the United States.
However, there is a possibility that a hot war will break out unintentionally. The first potential is the escalation of local conflicts, such as in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea. If both sides have to respond more and more strongly because of domestic politics, a real war may occur. The second possibility is that American power falls into the hands of real madmen, such as supporters of the anonymous Q conspiracy theory, which are increasingly welcomed by the far right, who do not care about the consequences of war, or think it is worthwhile to achieve their crazy goals at the cost of war.
The world will usher in a long period of confrontation. Any country that meets these three conditions will be regarded as a competitor by the United States.
Global Times: the 2018 US defense strategy report clearly defines China and Russia as the greatest realistic threat to the United States that exceeds terrorism. In July, US Defense Secretary esper, at the end of his one-year term, said China was the primary strategic competitor, followed by Russia. What does Americas positioning of China and Russia mean to the world order?
If a countrys political system is only different from that of the United States, but it is subject to the United States, such as Saudi Arabia or Ukraine, then it can be tolerated; if a country is small, political differences can also be tolerated, such as Montenegro or Estonia. However, if you are as powerful as China, Russia and even Iran, disobedient, have political system differences with the United States, and insist on your own path, these are enough to make you be regarded as the enemy of the United States. This is what I mean by the combination of ideology and geopolitics.
Either prepare for a long-term confrontation with Washington and its allies. In the foreseeable future, such confrontation will become an important part of the global order.
Global Times: do you think the recent U.S. sanctions against China are part of its overall China strategy or for the general election in November?
Scapegoat: Chinas novel coronavirus pneumonia is a part of the overall strategy of the United States. However, the election will also play a part in the role of Trump because he is playing the Anti China card and hopes to treat China as a scapegoat for handling the new crown pneumonia epidemic and economic problems. In addition, he also wants to divert attention from Russia, which is being made a scapegoat by the US Democratic Party. So the days before the US election are going to be a very dangerous period.
Global Times: when trump or Biden are elected, what will be the difference in the direction of U.S. China policy?
Lukin: even if Biden is elected, I dont think the USs line of confrontation with China will change significantly. Now the two parties in the United States have almost reached a consensus that China is the cause of the U.S. economic problems. From the perspective of American ideology, there will be no problem with the economic system of the United States. It has always been defined as more superior. Therefore, it must be that China has acted unfairly, playing tricks and cheating.
Trump has a stronger sense of nationalism and geopolitics. He is not blaming China itself. He denies the policies of previous presidents to China because he feels that they are allowing China to promote its own interests at the expense of American interests. From this point of view, in theory, China may be able to reach some kind of agreement with the trump administration after the election, some kind of agreement that is in the interests of the United States in Trumps view. Of course, trump is bound to ask China to make major concessions, but at least we can talk about it.
Democrats usually pay more attention to ideology. They will pay more attention to issues such as human rights, freedom of the press, nature of political power, and other global issues, such as international cooperation, economic globalization and climate change. In Marxist terms, trump represents the interests of state capitalism, while the Democratic Party represents comprador and multinational companies. With the Democratic Party, it is easier to find some consensus on international issues, while Chinas internal policy issues are much more difficult.
It is worth noting that even if Biden decides to improve relations with China after taking office, the Republican Party will try to undermine this effort, such as accusing him of connecting China, just as the Democratic Party accused trump of connecting Russia and undermining his efforts to improve relations with Russia.
My things are mine. Lets talk about yours - this is the classic logic of America
Global Times: the voice of United Russia and Anti China has appeared in the US political and academic circles recently. Is it possible for Russia to turn to the US side?
Lu Jin: absolutely not. After the United States supported Ukraines anti-government coup in 2014 and imposed sanctions on Moscow, the Russian leaderships illusion of the United States has been disillusioned. Trust in any form no longer exists. Since then, the United States has been regarded as an unreliable partner, and Russia can only reach some tactical or pragmatic agreements with it.
If Russia is to be on the side of the United States, the latter must abolish the entire sanctions system and recognize Russias interests in its surrounding areas. But Washington will never do that. It is not prepared to make any concessions. Its classic logic is: my things are mine. Lets talk about your things. In this case, only some very marginalized Pro Western circles in Russia still advocate that Moscow should support the United States against China.
Of course, there are also concerns in Russia about Chinas increasingly tough foreign policy, but such concerns will at best prompt Moscow to adopt a more neutral foreign policy, but will not allow Moscow to form an alliance with Washington.
Global Times: not long ago, the assistant to the US presidents national security affairs bluntly said that the United States has adopted too many sanctions against Russia, so that it can no longer find new targets for sanctions. What kind of status quo does this statement reflect?
Lukin: the relationship between Russia and the United States is at its worst in the past century, at least the lowest point since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and the Soviet Union in 1933. Russia has learned how to survive sanctions from the United States and Europe. Of course, this does not mean that Russias economy is developing very well, but Russias economic problems are mainly caused by internal reasons.
Similar to the reasons for the deterioration of Sino US relations, it is unlikely that there will be any significant improvement in Russian US relations in the foreseeable future, although some concrete agreements may be reached between the two countries.
Global Times: compared with the new cold war between the United States and China, what terms and expressions do the Russian intellectual circles have for the confrontation and game between the United States and Russia in recent years?
Lu Jin: Russian intellectuals have many terms to describe the current deterioration of Russian US relations, such as confrontation, conflict and bottoming out. The new cold war is also used to describe the current Russian US relations. However, Russian officials, including President Putin, have been avoiding too much comment or definition of the current situation, and they still call Americans partners.. Its easy to understand: you shouldnt close any doors easily. Whats more, rude statements dont help.
Global Times: as a country that has cooperated, competed, confronted or even tangled with the United States for decades, what experiences and lessons can Russia share with China today?
Lukin: I can talk about Russias experience and lessons over the years. As I said just now, the reason why Russia confronts the west is partly ideology, but mainly geopolitics. This means that for a big country, unless it unconditionally recognizes the leadership of the United States and becomes a satellite state of the United States, it can never fully meet the requirements of the United States.
In the early 1990s, Russia changed its political and economic system, and its size was smaller. But what happened later proved that even if it did, it was not enough. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia initially tried to join the western family and find a suitable position in this system. From Gorbachev to Yeltsin to Putin, these leaders initially wanted to improve their relations with the west, but they all ended up disillusioned. Russias intention to play an active role in the conflicts between neighboring countries has also led to misunderstandings with the West and further confrontation.
Facts have proved that the only choice for a great power to maintain independence is to prepare for the long-term tension with the United States. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Washington has been used to living in a world dominated by the United States. It wants to maintain this end of history situation. Although this goal is impossible to achieve, what the United States has done to make the world very dangerous. This will change only if the United States learns once again how to live with other powers without destabilizing the international order.
Russia, China and other non Western powers need to learn how to survive under the pressure of the United States, cooperate with each other to overcome their own challenges, and keep the door of cooperation open with the United States on the basis of equality and mutual benefit.