Expert: China and the United States have increased the probability of gun fire and the only possible location is in the South China Sea

 Expert: China and the United States have increased the probability of gun fire and the only possible location is in the South China Sea

With the US general election approaching, how will the situation in the South China Sea go? In response to this issue, the observer network interviewed Wu Shicun, President of the South China Sea Research Institute, on the PLAs missile test in the South China Sea and the motivation of the United States to entangle China in the South China Sea.

Wu Shicun, President of South China Sea Research Institute

Observer website: on August 26, the PLA launched dongfeng-26b and dongfeng-21d in the South China Sea. The US media directly pointed out that China launched the aircraft carrier killer. In view of the US military presence in the South China Sea, how do you interpret the PLAs action and the US medias interpretation of it?

The carrier killers dongfeng-26b and dongfeng-21d were launched this time. The range of dongfeng-21d and dongfeng-26b was 1800 km and 4000 km respectively. Then, only the United States has frequent aircraft carrier activities in the South China Sea, and only the United States has taken military provocative actions against China in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the Western Pacific. Are we aiming at Southeast Asian countries? Is it for other countries in the South China Sea? impossible. Therefore, from the perspective of the United States, the US media reports interpret the missile test as targeted at the United States, which I think is accurate. However, China has never officially indicated that the test firing is aimed at the United States, so the US media understand that it is in essence the United States is taking the right seat.

Of course, the international community will certainly not have a second country to take this action. There are some things that we all know.

Observer: on August 27, the US missile destroyer masting broke into Chinas territorial waters in Xisha without authorization. Is this a response to the PLAs test firing of aircraft carrier killer?

Wu Shicun: I have a hunch that the United States will carry out such a freedom of navigation operation recently. According to the frequency of operation freedom of navigation in the United States this year, it will be carried out basically once a month and a half to two months. This time, the mastine missile destroyer intruded into the South China Sea this year for the 7th freedom of navigation operation against China in the South China Sea, this time on August 27; the last (sixth) was on July 14 at Huayang reef and Yongshu Reef in Nansha; and the last (fifth) was on May 28 in Xisha. Basically, the U.S. operation freedom of navigation in the South China Sea is maintained every one and a half months to two months, alternately in Xisha and Nansha.

Wu Shicun: obviously. The only possible location of gun fire between China and the United States is in the South China Sea for several reasons

First, the current background is the all-round confrontation between China and the United States. The so-called comprehensive confrontation means that there are difficulties in all areas of cooperation between China and the United States.

Third, although there are crisis control mechanisms between the Chinese and US navies, such as the air sea encounter rule and the accidental encounter rule, when the Lanzhou ship and the destroyer Decatur of the United States were in close contact in 2018, the crisis management and control mechanism was lost, and neither party was willing to abide by the existing crisis control rules. Therefore, the crisis control mechanism and rules would be invalid under certain circumstances.

Fourth, the discretionary power of American front-line officers and men is greater than that of us. We have to go through various levels of approval for each shot, while American officers and soldiers have a lot of discretion. One year later, we can see that the intensity of electronic interference is higher than that of the U.S. military.

In this case, I think the possibility of gun fire is increased.

In addition, the United States has carried out frequent military operations in the South China Sea recently. The two aircraft carrier exercises, the bilateral military exercises and the military exercises of the three armed forces of the United States, Japan and Australia are all in the South China Sea. The purpose of targeting China is very strong, that is, directly taking China as the imaginary enemy.

Moreover, the threshold for military conflict in the South China Sea is relatively low. What is our bottom line in the South China Sea? Americans are also testing. Unlike the Taiwan Strait, the bottom line of the Taiwan issue is very clear: when Taiwan declares its independence and the United States supports Taiwans independence, that is, when it comes to my red line, there is no room for maneuver. In the South China Sea, we are exploring the bottom line of what we cant touch, what we can do, to what extent, and what specific reactions China will have. If the bottom line is not clear, the threshold for conflict is low.

Wu Shicun: I think that in the period of about 100 days before the US election, the possibility that the United States will create extra troubles and stir up trouble in the South China Sea is on the rise. The United States is not able to play many cards on the China issue. The Xinjiang issue, the Hong Kong issue and the Taiwan issue have all been played. So recently, the United States has been playing cards around the South China Sea issue.

On July 13, pompeio issued a statement on the South China Sea. On July 14, U.S. Assistant Secretary of state for Asia Pacific Affairs issued a statement. On August 26, the United States imposed sanctions on 24 Chinese enterprises involved in the construction of islands and reefs in the South China Sea. This series of actions shows that the United States is still playing cards in the South China Sea. Although the card in the South China Sea is also limited, trump will take advantage of the South China Sea issue in the next 100 years It is impossible to rule out the possibility of creating new branches, stirring up some troubles, using the South China Sea to stir up Chinas issues, and to restore the decline of its election.

Wu Shicun: obviously not. The United States is conscious of this.

The calculation of the United States is to use the South China Sea to hype Chinas issues, so that China can not make stable deployment in the South China Sea, and use the South China Sea issue to contain China, while not causing military conflict. This is why not long ago, U.S. Defense Secretary esper and our defense chief had a 90 minute conversation. It was because the United States realized that the impact of military conflict on Sino US relations would be disastrous. Therefore, we should take good care of the front-line officers and soldiers, avoid military conflicts as much as possible and cause crises.

Previously reported:

US media: China tests carrier killer to South China Sea

Guide: according to the popular mechanic, dongfeng-26b and dongfeng-21d are both anti-ship ballistic missiles, of which df-21d has a range of 1800 km, and dongfeng-26b can strike ship targets of 4000 km.

US Defense Ministry officials told Reuters and Bloomberg, 26, China launched 4 intermediate range ballistic missiles, hitting a region in the South China Sea between Hainan Island and Paracel Islands.

Earlier, Hong Kongs South China Morning Post quoted news close to the peoples Liberation Army (PLA) as saying that the PLA launched the dongfeng-26b ballistic missile from Qinghai and the dongfeng-21d ballistic missile from Zhejiang on the 26th, hitting the intended target in the South China Sea.

US media believe that dongfeng-21d and dongfeng-26 both have anti aircraft carrier capability, and dongfeng-26b can attack US warship targets 4000 km away.

The launch took place the day after the U-2 reconnaissance plane intruded into the no fly zone for live ammunition exercise in the northern theater of the Chinese peoples Liberation Army without authorization. It was the first time that foreign media reported that China launched the dongfeng-26 ballistic missile into the sea.

Map: PLA launches dongfeng-21d missile from Zhejiang Province and dongfeng-26b missile from Qinghai Province source: Oriental pendulum

Our armys first brigade equipped with dongfeng-26 carried out live fire. At present, the number of brigade equipped with dongfeng-26 is more than that of dongfeng-21d. Picture source: military report

According to Bloomberg August 27th, a US defense official who asked not to be named said China launched 4 medium range ballistic missiles on Wednesday, hitting a name in the South China Sea between Hainan Island and Paracel Islands.

However, the U.S. military official did not give more details, adding that an assessment is in progress to determine the type of missile launched.

As long as they are acting in accordance with international law and norms, they are fully entitled to do so, U.S. Navy Lieutenant General Scott Kang told reporters on Thursday in response to questions about missile tests He also said the United States was ready to respond to any threat in the region.. If all military operations are professional, you can get a warship to go to the same [test] area, says Scott Kang.

Earlier, the South China Morning Post reported that Chinese PLA sources disclosed that China launched two missiles into the South China Sea on the morning of the 26th, namely, dongfeng-26 and dongfeng-21d. Among them, the PLA launched a dongfeng-26b ballistic missile from Qinghai and a dongfeng-21d ballistic missile from Zhejiang.

However, the website of the famous American science and technology magazine Volkswagen machinist reported with the title of Chinas test firing of aircraft carrier killer to the United States in the South China Sea. According to the popular mechanic, both dongfeng-26b and dongfeng-21d are anti-ship ballistic missiles, of which the range of dongfeng-21d is 1800 km, and the dongfeng-26b can attack 4000 km ship targets.

The popular mechanics commented that the far range of Dongfeng -26 meant that in any war, any American carrier who wished to strike the Chinese mainland must take considerable risks. As a result, the U.S. Navy is trying to increase the range of carrier based aircraft.

Dongfeng missile launch

According to the 2020 Chinas military power report submitted by the US Department of defense to the Senate, the US Department of defense believes that the dongfeng-21d ballistic missile of the Chinese rocket force can attack important assets including aircraft carriers, while the dongfeng-26 has limited anti-ship capability.

Dongfeng-21d conventional missile has the characteristics of fast reaction speed, wide range of deterrence and control, strong penetration ability, target tracking standard and high strike precision. It can accurately attack large and medium-sized moving targets at sea, and realize a new leap in the attack capability of Chinese military conventional missiles.

Dongfeng-21d displayed in the military parade on September 3, 2015

Dongfeng-26 in the National Day parade in 2019 source: Social Media

Dongfeng-26 ballistic missile is a new series of missile weapon, which integrates deterrence and war, has both nuclear and regular functions, and is the backbone and core force of the rocket armys medium and long-range strike weapons. Dongfeng-26 missile has the ability of trans regional and non relying mobile launching, and can accurately attack many targets including ships.

According to Chinas military force report 2020, the US military believes that the range of df-21d is 1800 km, and that of df-26 is more than 4000 km.

This is the first time that foreign media have reported that China has launched df-26 anti-ship ballistic missile into the South China Sea region.

According to the aviation information website fr-24, the morning of the 26th. A U.S. Air Force rc-135s ballistic missile reconnaissance plane (No. 62-4128) took off from Kadena base in Okinawa and went to carry out reconnaissance operations near Hainan police in South China Sea.

U.S. ballistic missile reconnaissance plane goes to the area near Qionghai police in the South China Sea to reconnoiter our ballistic missile data source: fr24

Code named Cobra ball, the US RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft with code number of 62-4128 is a special ballistic missile reconnaissance plane of the US Army. Its mission is to collect ballistic missile signal characteristics, telemetry data and communication intelligence (COMINT) and theater ballistic missile defense. In 2017, when North Korea frequently tested intercontinental ballistic missiles, these reconnaissance planes frequently appeared in the waters near the peninsula.

At present, the situation in the South China Sea is still surging.

The launch of df-41 missile was carried out under strict protection

Since the US Navy regained its combat effectiveness in the Western Pacific, the US military and the US authorities have continued to hype the South China Sea issue in the past two months. At the government level, on August 26 local time, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that 24 Chinese enterprises, including five subsidiaries of CCCC, were included in the entity list, restricting their access to us technology, and said that these enterprises helped the Chinese military build artificial islands in the South China Sea.

Prior to this, on June 2, US Secretary of state pompeio tweeted that the United States had written to the Secretary General of the United Nations to protest against Chinas illegal claims for sovereignty in the South China Sea and against Chinas illegal and dangerous claims. The member states of the United Nations must unite to defend international law and freedom of the sea. Zhao Lijian, spokesman of the Chinese foreign ministry, refuted this.

The US military has also continued to send air forces to the sea to make waves in the South China Sea. Since June, the U.S. Navy has continued to hold frequent single carrier and dual carrier military exercises in and around the South China Sea. In an exclusive interview with politik, a New Zealand political news website, on the South China Sea issue on August 9, Ambassador Wu Xi revealed that in the first half of this year, military aircraft of individual countries conducted more than 2000 activities in the South China Sea. Since July 15, the countrys military aircraft have been approaching the South China Sea for reconnaissance for more than ten consecutive days.

US Navy Reagan aircraft carrier strike group transferred from the sea of Japan to the East China Sea

According to the website of Hainan maritime administration on August 21, Hainan maritime administration released military training activities in the southeast of Hainan Island - [Hainan aviation police 0078]:

Hainan aviation police 0078 South China Sea, August 24, 2020 0000-2400:00, 29, 2020

Military training will be conducted within the range of 18-19.5n/111-13.5e, 19-02.00n/112-14.5e, 19-02.5n/112-57.0e, 18-17.0n/113-51.5e, 17-37.5n/113-52.0e, 16-38.00n/112-44.0e, 16-38.00n/112-44.0e and 16-38.00n/112-20.0e. No Entry.

Chinas Ministry of defense has already responded to the routine military exercises in the South China Sea.

On July 10, Ren Guoqiang, spokesman of the Ministry of national defense, answered reporters questions on the news released by the US Department of defense accusing China of the South China Sea exercise.

Ren Guoqiang replied: Recently, the Chinese army carried out military training in the waters of Chinas Paracel Islands, and China announced the news in June 27th. This is a routine arrangement in the annual training plan. The purpose is to effectively enhance the maritime defense capability of the Chinese army, resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and security, and maintain regional peace and stability. Training is not targeted at any particular country or goal. We express our strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition to the fact that the US Department of defense has turned black and white into black and white, instigated relations among countries in the region and tried to profit from it. (source: observer network)

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