Expert: China and the United States have increased the probability of gun fire and the only possible location is in the South China Sea

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 Expert: China and the United States have increased the probability of gun fire and the only possible location is in the South China Sea


Wu Shicun, President of South China Sea Research Institute

Of course, the international community will certainly not have a second country to take this action. There are some things that we all know.

Wu Shicun: I have a hunch that the United States will carry out such a freedom of navigation operation recently. According to the frequency of operation freedom of navigation in the United States this year, it will be carried out basically once a month and a half to two months. This time, the mastine missile destroyer intruded into the South China Sea this year for the 7th freedom of navigation operation against China in the South China Sea, this time on August 27; the last (sixth) was on July 14 at Huayang reef and Yongshu Reef in Nansha; and the last (fifth) was on May 28 in Xisha. Basically, the U.S. operation freedom of navigation in the South China Sea is maintained every one and a half months to two months, alternately in Xisha and Nansha.

Observer.com: in your previous interview, you said that based on the development and evolution of the current situation in the South China Sea, there is a greater possibility that China and the United States will brush off their guns and go astray than before. Now, the US military activities in the South China Sea are becoming more and more frequent, and reconnaissance planes and warships are frequent. If we continue to develop in this way, will the possibility of gun fire become higher?

First, the current background is the all-round confrontation between China and the United States. The so-called comprehensive confrontation means that there are difficulties in all areas of cooperation between China and the United States.

Second, the South China Sea is the only area where the front-line officers and soldiers and equipment of China and the United States can contact. Whether the freedom of navigation of the United States occurs in Xisha or Nansha, we have to send warships to track, identify, warn and drive away. Once we miss, we are prone to danger. For example, on September 30, 2018, two fast-moving destroyers of China and the United States, the Lanzhou ship and the Decatur, came into close contact in the Nansha sea area, only 41 meters apart.

Third, although there are crisis control mechanisms between the Chinese and US navies, such as the air sea encounter rule and the accidental encounter rule, when the Lanzhou ship and the destroyer Decatur of the United States were in close contact in 2018, the crisis management and control mechanism was lost, and neither party was willing to abide by the existing crisis control rules. Therefore, the crisis control mechanism and rules would be invalid under certain circumstances.

In addition, the United States has carried out frequent military operations in the South China Sea recently. The two aircraft carrier exercises, the bilateral military exercises and the military exercises of the three armed forces of the United States, Japan and Australia are all in the South China Sea. The purpose of targeting China is very strong, that is, directly taking China as the imaginary enemy.

Wu Shicun: I think that in the period of about 100 days before the US election, the possibility that the United States will create extra troubles and stir up trouble in the South China Sea is on the rise. The United States is not able to play many cards on the China issue. The Xinjiang issue, the Hong Kong issue and the Taiwan issue have all been played. So recently, the United States has been playing cards around the South China Sea issue.

On July 13, pompeio issued a statement on the South China Sea. On July 14, U.S. Assistant Secretary of state for Asia Pacific Affairs issued a statement. On August 26, the United States imposed sanctions on 24 Chinese enterprises involved in the construction of islands and reefs in the South China Sea. This series of actions shows that the United States is still playing cards in the South China Sea. Although the card in the South China Sea is also limited, trump will take advantage of the South China Sea issue in the next 100 years It is impossible to rule out the possibility of creating new branches, stirring up some troubles, using the South China Sea to stir up Chinas issues, and to restore the decline of its election.

Wu Shicun: obviously not. The United States is conscious of this.

The calculation of the United States is to use the South China Sea to hype Chinas issues, so that China can not make stable deployment in the South China Sea, and use the South China Sea issue to contain China, while not causing military conflict. This is why not long ago, U.S. Defense Secretary esper and our defense chief had a 90 minute conversation. It was because the United States realized that the impact of military conflict on Sino US relations would be disastrous. Therefore, we should take good care of the front-line officers and soldiers, avoid military conflicts as much as possible and cause crises.

Guide: according to the popular mechanic, dongfeng-26b and dongfeng-21d are both anti-ship ballistic missiles, of which df-21d has a range of 1800 km, and dongfeng-26b can strike ship targets of 4000 km.

US Defense Ministry officials told Reuters and Bloomberg, 26, China launched 4 intermediate range ballistic missiles, hitting a region in the South China Sea between Hainan Island and Paracel Islands.

Earlier, Hong Kongs South China Morning Post quoted news close to the peoples Liberation Army (PLA) as saying that the PLA launched the dongfeng-26b ballistic missile from Qinghai and the dongfeng-21d ballistic missile from Zhejiang on the 26th, hitting the intended target in the South China Sea.

US media believe that dongfeng-21d and dongfeng-26 both have anti aircraft carrier capability, and dongfeng-26b can attack US warship targets 4000 km away.

The launch took place the day after the U-2 reconnaissance plane intruded into the no fly zone for live ammunition exercise in the northern theater of the Chinese peoples Liberation Army without authorization. It was the first time that foreign media reported that China launched the dongfeng-26 ballistic missile into the sea.

Map: PLA launches dongfeng-21d missile from Zhejiang Province and dongfeng-26b missile from Qinghai Province source: Oriental pendulum

According to Bloomberg August 27th, a US defense official who asked not to be named said China launched 4 medium range ballistic missiles on Wednesday, hitting a name in the South China Sea between Hainan Island and Paracel Islands.

However, the U.S. military official did not give more details, adding that an assessment is in progress to determine the type of missile launched.

As long as they are acting in accordance with international law and norms, they are fully entitled to do so, U.S. Navy Lieutenant General Scott Kang told reporters on Thursday in response to questions about missile tests He also said the United States was ready to respond to any threat in the region.. If all military operations are professional, you can get a warship to go to the same [test] area, says Scott Kang.

Earlier, the South China Morning Post reported that Chinese PLA sources disclosed that China launched two missiles into the South China Sea on the morning of the 26th, namely, dongfeng-26 and dongfeng-21d. Among them, the PLA launched a dongfeng-26b ballistic missile from Qinghai and a dongfeng-21d ballistic missile from Zhejiang.

However, the website of the famous American science and technology magazine Volkswagen machinist reported with the title of Chinas test firing of aircraft carrier killer to the United States in the South China Sea. According to the popular mechanic, both dongfeng-26b and dongfeng-21d are anti-ship ballistic missiles, of which the range of dongfeng-21d is 1800 km, and the dongfeng-26b can attack 4000 km ship targets.

Dongfeng missile launch

Dongfeng-21d displayed in the military parade on September 3, 2015

Dongfeng-26 in the National Day parade in 2019 source: Social Media

Dongfeng-26 ballistic missile is a new series of missile weapon, which integrates deterrence and war, has both nuclear and regular functions, and is the backbone and core force of the rocket armys medium and long-range strike weapons. Dongfeng-26 missile has the ability of trans regional and non relying mobile launching, and can accurately attack many targets including ships.

According to Chinas military force report 2020, the US military believes that the range of df-21d is 1800 km, and that of df-26 is more than 4000 km.

This is the first time that foreign media have reported that China has launched df-26 anti-ship ballistic missile into the South China Sea region.

U.S. ballistic missile reconnaissance plane goes to the area near Qionghai police in the South China Sea to reconnoiter our ballistic missile data source: fr24

Code named Cobra ball, the US RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft with code number of 62-4128 is a special ballistic missile reconnaissance plane of the US Army. Its mission is to collect ballistic missile signal characteristics, telemetry data and communication intelligence (COMINT) and theater ballistic missile defense. In 2017, when North Korea frequently tested intercontinental ballistic missiles, these reconnaissance planes frequently appeared in the waters near the peninsula.

At present, the situation in the South China Sea is still surging.

The launch of df-41 missile was carried out under strict protection

The US military has also continued to send air forces to the sea to make waves in the South China Sea. Since June, the U.S. Navy has continued to hold frequent single carrier and dual carrier military exercises in and around the South China Sea. In an exclusive interview with politik, a New Zealand political news website, on the South China Sea issue on August 9, Ambassador Wu Xi revealed that in the first half of this year, military aircraft of individual countries conducted more than 2000 activities in the South China Sea. Since July 15, the countrys military aircraft have been approaching the South China Sea for reconnaissance for more than ten consecutive days.

US Navy Reagan aircraft carrier strike group transferred from the sea of Japan to the East China Sea

According to the website of Hainan maritime administration on August 21, Hainan maritime administration released military training activities in the southeast of Hainan Island - [Hainan aviation police 0078]:

Hainan aviation police 0078 South China Sea, August 24, 2020 0000-2400:00, 29, 2020

Military training will be conducted within the range of 18-19.5n/111-13.5e, 19-02.00n/112-14.5e, 19-02.5n/112-57.0e, 18-17.0n/113-51.5e, 17-37.5n/113-52.0e, 16-38.00n/112-44.0e, 16-38.00n/112-44.0e and 16-38.00n/112-20.0e. No Entry.

On July 10, Ren Guoqiang, spokesman of the Ministry of national defense, answered reporters questions on the news released by the US Department of defense accusing China of the South China Sea exercise.

Ren Guoqiang replied: Recently, the Chinese army carried out military training in the waters of Chinas Paracel Islands, and China announced the news in June 27th. This is a routine arrangement in the annual training plan. The purpose is to effectively enhance the maritime defense capability of the Chinese army, resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and security, and maintain regional peace and stability. Training is not targeted at any particular country or goal. We express our strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition to the fact that the US Department of defense has turned black and white into black and white, instigated relations among countries in the region and tried to profit from it. (source: observer network)

(function(){( window.slotbydup=window .slotbydup||[]).push({id:u5811557,container:ssp_ 5811557, async:true }Source: observer.com editor in charge: Yuan Yijiao_ NB14956