How to see the trend of Sino Japanese relations in the post Abe era? Expert interpretation

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 How to see the trend of Sino Japanese relations in the post Abe era? Expert interpretation


In September 2006, Shinzo Abe served as Prime Minister for the first time, becoming the first and youngest prime minister born after the war. However, in September 2007, Shinzo Abe suddenly resigned as Prime Minister for health reasons. In December 2012, Japan held a house of Representatives election. Shinzo Abe led the LDP to win the general election, and became the Prime Minister of Japan again and has been in power continuously. On December 24, he became the longest consecutive prime minister of Japan. However, his health has always been a concern. A Japanese media reported that Shinzo Abe had vomited blood in July. On August 17, Shinzo Abe had a physical examination in the hospital for more than 7 hours, and went to the same hospital on August 24 to listen to the results and receive more examinations. Until 28 this month, Abe officially announced his resignation due to illness.

How to evaluate Abes influence on Sino Japanese relations? Dr. Li Shuo of the Japan Research Institute of Nankai University told the global times global.com on the 28th that during Abes term of office, he was more mature and rational in dealing with Sino Japanese relations. During his reign, the territorial dispute over the Diaoyu Islands has always existed, but it did not lead to the extreme deterioration of Sino Japanese relations as the Democratic Party was in power. Li Shuo believed that the Abe Regime followed the United States in suppressing and containing China in terms of military security issues, but did not undermine the overall situation of Sino Japanese relations and carried out certain cooperation in social, cultural and economic fields.

Abes era has come to an end. Zhou Yongsheng, a professor at the Foreign Affairs College, told the global times global network on the 28th that Abe has been promoting Chinese leaders to visit Japan. The finishing touch of Sino Japanese relations has not yet been completed. It is quite a pity that Abe will resign for health reasons.

Zhou Yongsheng said that in domestic affairs, Shinzo Abe has been committed to promoting abenomics in Japan, which has promoted Japans economic prosperity for several decades in a row, and has objectively made great contributions to Japans economic and social development. But we also see that abenomics also has great limitations, that is, it has not let Japan get rid of the situation of long-term low-speed growth. Therefore, we should not only affirm its success, but also ignore its limitations.

According to Zhou Yongshengs observation, the whole Japanese society generally holds a positive attitude towards Shinzo Abe. However, due to the sudden outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the negative public opinion on his weak resistance to the epidemic and unfavorable economic recovery has greatly increased, and the positive support rate once dropped to 35%. Zhou Yongsheng said, we should also note that this is only a comprehensive comment given by Japanese society under the short-term factors of sudden situation. It is expected that Japanese society will still give Abe a steady and positive evaluation. Compared with previous Japanese prime ministers, I think Shinzo Abe has outstanding personal ability, steady personality and flexible means. He has made great achievements in both domestic and foreign affairs.

Who will be Abes successor?

On the selection of a new prime minister after Abes resignation, Reuters reported that the LDP must announce the leadership election one month in advance, and members of Parliament and grass-roots party members should vote together. However, in the case of sudden resignation, special elections must be held as soon as possible, with participants limited to members of Congress and representatives of local branches of the party. The BBC reports that in order to stabilize the political situation for a short time, the LDP may adopt an emergency voting bill, with 396 members of Parliament and 141 representatives of the original LDP in various prefectures and counties to vote, a total of 537 people, so that the vote can be completed in a few days. Shinzo Abe and his cabinet will remain in power until a new prime minister is elected, but not a new policy. As for the candidates for the next Japanese Prime Minister, Zhou Yongsheng believes that at present, it is most likely that Shimao Ishida or Takeshi Shimao is the most likely candidate. Shinzo Abe and his party clearly want to strongly recommend him. However, Ishibashi also has considerable political strength, and it is estimated that there will be considerable support among members of Parliament. Therefore, it is very likely that he will be elected Prime Minister of Japan. The key to the future is to see how the major factions in Japan balance.

Li Shuo believes that the new president of the LDP will become the new Prime Minister of Japan when the LDP occupies a majority of the seats in the parliament. The election of the president of the LDP is influenced not only by the factional forces in the party, but also by the support of public opinion. At present, while Mr. Ishida has the advantage of factionalism in the party, public opinion support is not low. Therefore, it is more likely to win the presidential election.

Wang Guangtao, an associate researcher at Fudan Universitys Japan Research Center, told Global Times global.com that Abe did not have a clear candidate to support in response to questions about the successor at the press conference, which at least shows that the future presidential election will be a game between factions in the LDP. In addition to the support of Abes faction, the support attitude of two other key figures, Taro Aso and Junbo Erkai, is also an important indicator to determine the future president. Judging from the expectations of the people and the power game process of the LDP, it is very likely that the future will be a confrontation between ishimoto and Ishida. At present, there is still more than two weeks before the LDP president election, during which there are still many variables.

How to see the trend of Sino Japanese relations in the post Abe era?

Li Shuo further analyzed that the new prime ministers US policy will not change significantly, and will continue to emphasize the importance of the Japan US alliance to Japan. Under the current situation, Japan will seek to maximize its interests in cooperating with the United States to decouple and integrate the East Asian economy. It will not be as radical as the United States, nor will it cooperate with China to accelerate the economic integration of East Asia. More likely, Japan will deepen trade with other countries except China, such as Southeast Asian countries, India, Australia, etc.

Wang Guangtao, an associate researcher at Fudan Universitys Japan Research Center, told the global times global.com that the OTA faction in which Mr. Kishida belongs inherited the political mantle of former Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka, and is relatively moderate in its China policy. But recently, Mr. Ishida has also intensified his criticism of China. On the contrary, Shi pengmao, who was born as a Hawk, seldom makes critical remarks on China related issues. This is also considered to show his kindness to the second-class Junzi of the pro China faction of the Liberal Democratic Party in exchange for the second-class support for his presidential election. However, public opinion generally believes that the two mens views on China are mainly for the needs of election. If they become prime minister, they will not seek confrontational policies with China. Wang Guangtao believes that, generally speaking, for Japanese politicians, how to inherit and develop Sino Japanese relations is the right choice in line with their national interests.

Why can enteritis cause Abe to resign?

According to public reports, the symptoms of Abes enteritis appeared in 2010 and was later diagnosed as ulcerative colitis, showing abdominal pain, diarrhea and bloody stool. Since then, he has had the same symptoms almost once a year. At present, the etiology of ulcerative enteritis is unknown. It is neither external infection nor related to unhealthy lifestyle such as smoking and drinking. Most studies have shown that ulcerative colitis is caused by a combination of internal and external factors.

Chen minhu, chief physician of the Department of Gastroenterology of the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat sen University, once wrote that at present, there is no radical cure for inflammatory bowel disease including ulcerative colitis. Most patients can only improve their symptoms after treatment. Once the treatment is stopped, there will be recurrence, and the recurrence rate is very high. He pointed out that if ulcerative colitis is not treated in time, the condition will be aggravated, the frequency of diarrhea or bloody stool will be increased, and the patients may have anemia or decreased immunity, and even canceration. Zeng Zhirong, chief physician of the Department of Gastroenterology of the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat sen University, once said in an interview that if patients with ulcerative colitis have to defecate many times every day, they can imagine that they can hardly work and their lives will be greatly affected.

(function(){( window.slotbydup=window .slotbydup||[]).push({id:u5811557,container:ssp_ 5811557, async:true }Source of this article: Lin Qihui, editor in charge of global network_ NB13068