Will Huawei die if it loses its high-end self-developed chip? Haisi has thought about the next step

 Will Huawei die if it loses its high-end self-developed chip? Haisi has thought about the next step

Without self-developed chips, what should Huawei do with its four major businesses

On August 7, Yu Chengdong admitted at a summit that the new round of crackdown in the United States is aimed at the chip manufacturing industry that Huawei has not invested in. As a result, Huaweis Kirin chips can no longer be produced after September 15.

Picture / visual China

Kylins masterpiece. Although the industry has been prepared for this, this is the first time that Huawei has disclosed its situation to the outside world in an official voice, which has aroused the indignation and indignation of core of the whole network. But in fact, the US crackdown policy is aimed at almost all high-end chip businesses of Huawei.

The largest business segment, consumer business, accounts for more than half of Huaweis revenue, and its main product is mobile phones. People close to Huawei mobile phones said that Yu Chengdong used more MediaTek chips behind him. Not long ago, Huawei and MediaTek reached a cooperation agreement, placing orders for 120 million chips. Its just that after using MediaTek, Huawei mobile phone needs to make up for it from other points.

As a consumer product, chip supply is relatively easy to solve. In addition to MediaTek, Huaweis cooperation with Samsung and Qualcomm is also possible. Almost all the people in the industry contacted by AI finance and economics news agency believe that Huaweis mobile phones super trading ability can make a smooth transition even without Kirin chips.

Picture / visual China

If we look at the business of the operators in Huaweis second largest plate, 5g is the focus, while the main chips of 5g base station are baseband processing chip and interface chip. At present, these two kinds of chips are self-developed by Huawei, but Huawei can not produce them with advanced technology in the future.

A communication chip personage introduced that for base station baseband processing, the importance of algorithm and architecture is higher. Process constraints will make base station chips more difficult to implement, but not fatal. In addition, Huawei has assisted domestic companies in developing various base station chips.

Huawei promoted Kunpeng ecology in various places last year. Many enterprises participated in the promotion and launched Kunpeng PC and server, as well as various software based on the platform.

Two weeks ago, a person with a localization project said that the server chip is more difficult for Huawei to solve than the mobile phone chip supply failure. Previously, Kunpeng 920 used a 7-nm process, and will not be able to be used thereafter.

A person close to Huawei told AI finance and economics news agency that Huawei had organized domestic experts to study whether it could build a chip manufacturing line without U.S. equipment in a hurry. However, it was found that it was difficult to build a chip manufacturing line without us equipment, and the localization rate could only reach 20%.

Whether its overtaking on the curve or half way, we hope to lead in the third generation semiconductor era. Theres nothing that cant be done in the world. Theres only not enough determination and investment. Yu Chengdong said.

So can Hisilicon make breakthroughs in the above-mentioned core difficulties? Objectively speaking, because of the long and complex chain of semiconductors, not one enterprise can do it all.

However, according to the analysis of people close to Hisilicon, Hisilicons success in the past is closely related to supporting Huaweis various product lines, clear objectives and Huaweis marketization mechanism. According to market research firm icinsights, 90% of Hisilicons revenue comes from its parent company Huawei. Hisilicon also has some products for the external market, but the most successful one is video monitoring chip, so we cant think that Hisilicons capability can be expanded infinitely.

According to the above sources, Huawei will cooperate with other enterprises this time, and enterprises in the industry have a positive attitude at present. Other companies may not use Huaweis own products. But working with third parties makes a difference. For example, after being blocked by the United States, Huawei has cooperated with domestic EDA tool enterprises. If a set of software is made, other domestic customers can also use it; for example, Huawei is supporting enterprises to make communication base station chips. If it is made, ZTE and beacon can also use it.

However, more people believe that some of the core technologies of semiconductors are developed by global scientific and technological forces, and Huawei cannot break through everything. He thinks that the reason why ASML, a Dutch lithography giant, can lead the world is that it stands on the shoulder of the industry alliance euvllc, which was established in the 1990s. This alliance brings together European and American technology giants, and the lithography machine itself also integrates the technology of hundreds of companies around the world, which is not a hot blooded saying that it can be built. Optimists believe that it will take at least 10 years for Huawei to build its own non US made lines.

Hisilicons pain is the epitome of Chinas semiconductor industry. From the content listed in Yu Chengdongs speech PPT, lets see the short board involving the whole semiconductor industry chain. If you dont start now, you will always be in a passive neck clamping position. Recently, SMIC increased its investment from US $4.3 billion to US $6.7 billion, which is unprecedented. It has ordered a large number of equipment, but it has not yet arrived, and there are still variables.

In the short term, we should solve the commercialization problems of SMIC international advanced technology and two domestic storage plants with huge investment, while in the long term, it is equipment and materials. The government and the industry need a clear strategy on which enterprises lead and how to do it.

(function(){( window.slotbydup=window .slotbydup||[]).push({id:u5811557,container:ssp_ 5811557, async:true }Source of this article: responsible editor of AI Financial Society: Hua Chengyu_ NBJ11143