M2 growth rate drops, A-share rises sharply, diversion effect reduces deposits by hundreds of billions?

category:Finance
 M2 growth rate drops, A-share rises sharply, diversion effect reduces deposits by hundreds of billions?


It is worth noting that RMB deposits in July increased by 561.7 billion yuan year-on-year, of which household deposits decreased by 719.5 billion yuan. Some analysts believe that A-share bull market in July formed a certain diversion effect, but some analysts told reporters that the decrease in deposits may be affected by the decline in loan supply, because loans will derive deposits.

The increase in social finance was halved month on month, and M2 growth rate fell for the first time in six months

According to the data released by the central bank, at the end of July, the stock of social financing scale was 273.33 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth still at a high level of 12.9%; the increase in that month was 1.69 trillion yuan, an increase of 406.8 billion yuan over the same period of last year. However, compared with the 34300 in June, the increase in social financing in July decreased by 50.7%.

In fact, some institutions have predicted that the new social finance will be less than 2 trillion yuan due to factors such as the decline of corporate bond financing, the continued contraction of off balance sheet financing and the slowdown of local bond issuance.

The data in July were in line with expectations, with RMB loans to the real economy increased by 1.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 213.5 billion yuan year-on-year. In the three off balance sheet data, entrusted loans decreased by 15.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 83.5 billion yuan; trust loans decreased by 136.7 billion yuan, an increase of 69.1 billion yuan; undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 113 billion yuan, a decrease of 343.2 billion yuan. The net financing of corporate bonds was 238.3 billion yuan, which was 56.1 billion yuan less than that of last year; the net financing of government bonds was 545.9 billion yuan, 96.8 billion yuan less than that of last year.

At the same time, with the monetary policy paying more attention to grasping the rhythm and optimizing the structure, the growth rate of M2 fell to 10.7%, 0.4 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month, the first decline in six months. The novel coronavirus pneumonia analysis said that the central bank implemented the counter cyclical regulation policy in the first few months of this year due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic situation. In this case, the M2 growth rate was faster, and the overall economic development was relatively stable. With the economic growth rate relatively low, the two indicators of GDP and M2 should match as a whole.

He predicted that GDP growth in the third and fourth quarters of this year will be 5% to 6%. In official statements such as the Political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee, the money supply and the scale of social financing are also required to maintain moderate and reasonable growth. In the second half of the year, monetary policy will mainly increase precise guidance, give greater support to weak links, and make flexible choices according to economic development. This is the development trend.

Zongliang also mentioned that this year, the central government proposed to build a new pattern of domestic and international dual circulation to promote each other, which indicates certain uncertainty, which may be well adapted or need to be run in. Therefore, monetary policy leaves relatively large flexibility space. In addition, the current monetary policy environment space of many countries is very small, when they are close to zero interest rate or even negative interest rate Next, our policy operation space is relatively large.

The rise of stock market sucks household deposits?

Some bank researchers believe that the decrease of deposit increment has the influence of stock market diversion. In the past July, the main index of a shares performed strongly. On July 31, the Shanghai stock index closed at 3310 points. Although the market rose sharply and then fell sharply, the three major stock indexes rose more than 10% in July. The monthly increase of the Shanghai index reached 10.9%, which was the largest monthly increase in nearly 17 months. However, a securities firm fixed income analyst told shell finance and economics that it is not possible to draw a direct conclusion that the gold absorption effect of the stock market surge may not be so great, and the decrease of deposits may be affected by the decrease of loan supply, because loans will derive deposits. According to the central bank data, RMB loans increased by 992.7 billion yuan in July, a decrease of 63.1 billion yuan over the same period last year. Beijing News shell financial reporter Cheng WeiMiao editor Wang Jinyu proofread Li Shihui source: Beijing News responsible editor: Yang Bin_ NF4368

Some bank researchers believe that the decrease of deposit increment has the influence of stock market diversion. In the past July, the main index of a shares performed strongly. On July 31, the Shanghai stock index closed at 3310 points. Although the market rose sharply and then fell sharply, the three major stock indexes rose more than 10% in July. The monthly increase of the Shanghai index reached 10.9%, which was the largest monthly increase in nearly 17 months.

However, a securities firm fixed income analyst told shell finance and economics that it is not possible to draw a direct conclusion that the gold absorption effect of the stock market surge may not be so great, and the decrease of deposits may be affected by the decrease of loan supply, because loans will derive deposits. According to the central bank data, RMB loans increased by 992.7 billion yuan in July, a decrease of 63.1 billion yuan over the same period last year.