CPI comes out in July! Sichuans 4.1percent growth rate leads to tight pork supply

category:Finance
 CPI comes out in July! Sichuans 4.1percent growth rate leads to tight pork supply


In July, Chinas CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, and the increase was in the two times for three consecutive months. From the perspective of month on month, the national consumer price rose by 0.6% month on month.

In terms of provinces, CPI of 11 provinces, including Sichuan, Anhui, Yunnan, Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Shanxi, Shandong, Guangxi, Henan and Chongqing, exceeded the national average in July.

Among them, Sichuan, Anhui, Yunnan CPI rose by 4.1%, 3.9% and 3.6% respectively, ranking the top three. It is worth noting that Sichuan has been in the top position of CPI growth for three consecutive months.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

In addition, the growth of Jiangsu and Guizhou was the same as that of the whole country. The CPI growth rate of 18 provinces including Qinghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Tibet, Shaanxi, Liaoning, Hebei, Tianjin, Jilin, Fujian, Hainan, Heilongjiang, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Shanghai, Xinjiang, Ningxia and Beijing were lower than that of the whole country.

Among the 31 provinces, Beijings CPI rose the least in July, only 0.7%. According to the official website of the Beijing survey team of the National Bureau of statistics, the prices of fresh fruits and eggs in Beijing fell by 30.1% and 15.0% respectively in July. The price of non food decreased by 0.3%, and the total index decreased by 0.29%. Among them, the price of air ticket decreased by 34.8%, with a decrease rate of 3.4% compared with that in June; the price of gasoline and diesel decreased by 16.2% and 17.7% respectively.

How will the price of eggs and pork go in the future?

Expert: there will be a downward adjustment later

In July, pork prices rose by 85.7%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points over the previous month. Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician at the city Department of the National Bureau of statistics, pointed out that with the gradual recovery of catering services, pork consumption demand continued to increase, while floods in many places had a certain impact on pig transportation, and the supply was still tight. In addition, due to the reduction of laying hens, the summer egg production rate decreased, Egg prices rose after falling for nine consecutive months.

Pork price trend in the year. Source: Ministry of agriculture and rural

The price trend of eggs in the year. Source: Ministry of agriculture and rural

In terms of eggs, Ying Xi Wen believes that the recent rise in temperature has led to a decline in egg production, as well as an increase in the demand for eggs in the late Mid Autumn Festival, all of which have pushed up the price of eggs. It is expected that after entering the winter, with the withdrawal of the above factors, the rising trend of egg price is expected to stabilize.

Su Jian, director of the national economic research center of Peking University, pointed out in an interview with the client of Sino Singapore Jingwei that the prices of pork and eggs will drop in the later period and the rising trend will not continue. At present, there are two reasons for the rise of egg price. On the one hand, around July every year is the dormant period of chicken, and the egg production is low, and the rise of egg price is a seasonal rise; on the other hand, driven by the rise of pork price, the equivalence of eggs, beef and mutton as substitutes for pork has increased to varying degrees. In the later stage, with the decline of pork price, the price of eggs will also decline.

Will CPI rise in the future?

Expert: it will return to the downward trend

Li Qilin, chief economist of YueKai securities and President of the Research Institute, predicts that CPI will enter the downward channel again on a year-on-year basis. Starting from August, the tail of CPI will obviously weaken. There is limited room for pork prices to continue to rise. The year-on-year decline of pig production narrowed, and the number of live pigs increased month on month for three consecutive quarters. After two consecutive months of price increases in June and July, it is unlikely that pork prices will continue to rise sharply. The influence of flood and waterlogging in South China gradually subsided. According to the analysis of the article, looking forward to the following months, in the case of a sharp rise in the base last year, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI is still a probable event, and the epidemic situation, weather conditions and pork price trend will still be the fluctuation factors in the overall downward trend of CPI. The financial research center of Bank of communications pointed out that the current expansion of CPI is mainly caused by seasonal factors, and food prices may fall significantly with the weakening of seasonal factors in the future. After August, the impact of the flood on agricultural production and logistics transportation will be weakened, and the prices of vegetables and pork may gradually fall. CPI will return to the downward trend after a short-term rebound year-on-year, and there is no inflationary pressure. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP) source: responsible editor of Zhongxin Jingwei: Wang Xiaowu_ NF

Li Qilin, chief economist of YueKai securities and President of the Research Institute, predicts that CPI will enter the downward channel again on a year-on-year basis. Starting from August, the tail of CPI will obviously weaken. There is limited room for pork prices to continue to rise. The year-on-year decline of pig production narrowed, and the number of live pigs increased month on month for three consecutive quarters. After two consecutive months of price increases in June and July, it is unlikely that pork prices will continue to rise sharply. The influence of flood and waterlogging in South China gradually subsided.

According to the analysis of the article, looking forward to the following months, in the case of a sharp rise in the base last year, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI is still a probable event, and the epidemic situation, weather conditions and pork price trend will still be the fluctuation factors in the overall downward trend of CPI.

The financial research center of Bank of communications pointed out that the current expansion of CPI is mainly caused by seasonal factors, and food prices may fall significantly with the weakening of seasonal factors in the future. After August, the impact of the flood on agricultural production and logistics transportation will be weakened, and the prices of vegetables and pork may gradually fall. CPI will return to the downward trend after a short-term rebound year-on-year, and there is no inflationary pressure. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)