Last years booming chicken market ushered in a cooling down this year. The picture shows a chicken hatched recently in Mianzhu, Sichuan Province
In the past two years, the strongest pig cycle in history is booming. During the peak period of price, raising a pig can earn up to 3000 yuan.
Along with the pig cycle, there is also the strongest chicken cycle in history. Many farmers said: I havent seen such a market in my life, once in a century!
According to Oriental Fortune choice, on October 30, 2019, the price of broiler reached a record high of 13.5 yuan / kg, more than three times the low of 4.2 yuan / kg in 2016.
This is only the price of white feather broiler, and the price of yellow feather broiler is higher. According to the monthly report data disclosed by Lihua, the leading company of yellow feather chicken, in November last year, the average selling price of the companys commercial broilers reached 17.32 yuan / kg.
Chengdu superstar poultry industry Co., Ltd. is a large-scale breeding company with multiple bases. The stock of breeding chicken exceeds 300000 sets. One of the large-scale breeding chicken farms is located in Chongzhou, Chengdu.
In late July, the head of the chicken farm of Chengdu superstar poultry Co., Ltd. recalled to the reporter of daily economic news the hot market of last years chicken market.
Last year, when it was the most fierce, I made about five or six million yuan (a month), and usually it was a million yuan. Ren Changchangs mouth slightly smile, the joy overflows in the speech. Last year, when the price was at its peak, customers scrambled for chickens, and they had to auction spontaneously. If this customer gives 12.5 yuan (one piece), the other customer will be a little bit more.
Ren said that the cost of a commercial chicken is 5-6 yuan / Jin, and it can even be sold for more than 10 yuan / Jin during the peak period of price. The profit of commercial chicken is 4-5 yuan per kilogram. I have never encountered this kind of market in 17 years of raising chicken.
Pig profiteering will stimulate the prices of upstream piglets and breeding sows to rise. Similarly, the prices of upstream chicken seedlings will soar.
Sichuan Sihai Sanlian Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. has a breeding base of breeding chicken in shijingpu Town, Guangyuan City, with 100000 sets of breeding chickens on hand all year round.
Last year was equivalent to three years of money. Liu Shuling, general manager of the company and President of Chengdu poultry industry association, said that during the peak period of chicken industry last year, chicken seedlings were sold for 12 yuan / piece, and the cost of chicken seedlings was about 3.5 yuan / piece, its just a huge profit!
Raise 20000 chickens and earn 700000! A chicken hatchery employee slapped down the table with a thump. Compared with two fingers, you can buy an Audi A6L in 2-3 months! I also know that a chicken farm made 10 million last year He described the details of the industry vividly, some exaggeration, but it shows the huge impact of this wealth feast.
This years reversal: no one wants chicken seedlings to lose money and fell to a historical low in February
In a flash, the good days of making an Audi A6L in two or three months last year are no longer good. We can lose two Audi a6ls in one month this year.
The cycle changes, the high point changes to the trough, the strongest chicken cycle just stood on the tuyere and then fell heavily. This fall, then fall a chicken fly egg beat, make ends meet.
According to Oriental Fortune choice, on November 7, 2019, the price of 817 chicken fry in Heze, Shandong Province, reached a record high of 3.9 yuan / feather. But on February 13 this year, the price fell to a historical low of 0.15 yuan per feather. Even if its a roller coaster ride, there will always be a rebound. However, it took less than three months for the chicken price to drop from the historical high to the historical low, showing a 90 degree straight-line decline.
The cost of chicken fry is about one yuan and five (one piece), and the price is only 2 yuan now. Ren said that some varieties of chicken seedlings remained weak profit, and some could only be sold at a loss.
According to last years high of 12 yuan / piece, the current price of chicken fry is only 1 / 6 of that time. Because of the differences in breeding costs, the industrys divergence lies in whether the current price has been the loss of the whole industry.
For the losers, the price volatility of the chicken cycle is enough to make them spit out the money they earned before with interest: it is not exaggeration to lose two Audi a6ls a month and lose all 10 million yuan.
The periodic price fluctuation of chicken is affected by the relationship between supply and demand. On the supply side, farmers scrambled to enter the market at last years high price.
You came here last year. On both sides of the road, you can see that pheasants are raised everywhere. An employee of Sichuan Sihai Sanlian Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. talked about the grand occasion of nationwide chicken raising in the village last year. In every corner of the village, you can see scattered chickens fed by farmers. Ren said that large and small farms are raising chickens, even those who sell feed.
Zou Ping, chairman of Sichuan Sanlian poultry Co., Ltd., said that after the price of chicken rose last year, many people thought that the industry would get money quickly, and many investors would go to the production capacity in a short time.
Last year, Liu Shulings dehumidified chicken was the best seller, and the demand was very strong. When the chicken seedlings grow to 40 days, they can adapt to the outside temperature, and people can easily raise them when they buy them.. By fattening chicken seedlings into commercial chickens, chicken breeders can quickly cash in profits at high prices. According to the data released by China Animal Husbandry Association, in 2019, the number of commercial white feather broilers and yellow feather broilers in China will be 4.4 billion and 4.9 billion respectively, with an increase of about 500 million and 1 billion over the same period of last year, with the growth rates of 12.8% and 25% respectively. The number of white feathered broilers and yellow feathered broilers in 2018 increased significantly compared with that in 2017.
However, in terms of demand, this years new epidemic has affected the main scenes of chicken consumption such as canteens, group meals and parties. Chicken is different from pig. Its main consumption is not daily consumption, but parties and banquets. Liu Shuling said.
Lihua shares related to the daily economic news reporter said, due to the new crown epidemic on social consumption has produced a certain inhibition, and last years chicken industry production capacity increase brought about the increase in supply, so the broiler market is relatively low.
On the other hand, the consumption habit of yellow feathered chicken has not changed from live poultry trade to slaughtering trade. Haitong Securities Research Report mentioned a data, about 80% of Chinas yellow feather chicken through the form of live chicken trading.
Pig and chicken have the irreplaceable of national diet consumption habits, but they have the consumption elasticity of mutual substitution. When the strongest pig cycle leads to a sharp rise in pork prices, the substitution effect will drive up the price of chicken. However, the key problem is that neither the adjustment range nor the rebound height of pig price can be compared with that of chicken price.
Take this years pig price as an example, the average pig price in may hit a new low of 27.46 yuan / kg. Subsequently, the price of pigs quickly hit the bottom and rebounded, approaching high forward. But after a brief rebound, the price of chicken goes down again. One looks like the main rising wave, and the other is like the main falling wave. It can be said that it is a double day of ice and fire.
Why? One is the production cycle. The growth cycle of commercial chicken is short, the reproductive efficiency determines the production efficiency, and the production efficiency determines the efficiency of new production capacity.
We have 12000 breeders in a henhouse, and we need to lay 100000 eggs, and the laying cycle is 36 weeks. Ren said that the efficiency of chicken production capacity expansion is particularly high, and the marketing efficiency is much higher than that of pig breeding.
The Yellow feathered chicken generally takes 60 ~ 100 days to put into the market, while the slow speed chicken usually needs more than 100 days. Our commercial chickens are generally sold in 85 days, and a chicken weighs five or six Jin. Liu Shuling said.
However, it takes 6-7 months from piglets to fattening pigs, and the breeding cycle is several times longer than that of farmed chickens, not counting the pregnancy and lactation period of sows.
Last year, the market was booming, so did pigs and feed producers, and more importantly, chickens. The radical expansion of the market players inadvertently pulled the efficiency of meat production to the peak. The new production capacity led to the explosive growth of commercial chicken sales at a certain time point, and the imbalance between supply and demand led to a sharp drop in prices. Especially in the high price market of chicken, farmers can bear the high breeding cost of purchased chicken seedlings.
The low threshold for raising chickens has given free range farmers and cross-border people opportunities. However, in the supply structure of new production capacity, the contribution proportion of independent household supply is not high. An analyst who has been paying close attention to the poultry industry for a long time said that although the number of farmers in rural areas is large, their contribution to the total amount of breeding is very small.
The Ministry of ecology and environment has disclosed the number of large-scale broiler farms from 2011 to 2015, with a growth rate of 7.95% for the total number of breeding households. Among them, the five-year growth rate of scale farms with annual output of 50000-100000 (excluding) is 1.34%; the growth rate of scale farms with annual output of 100000-500000 (excluding) is 19.45%; the growth rate of scale farms with annual output of 500000-1000000 (excluding) is 32.81%; The five-year growth rate of large-scale farms with more than one million on the market is as high as 155.34%.
According to the data of poultry branch of China Animal Husbandry Association, in 2019, the top 10 yellow feather broiler enterprises in China accounted for 40.31% of the domestic yellow feather commercial broiler sales volume, of which Wenshi shares and Lihua shares accounted for about 26% of the market share. Compared with yellow feather chicken, white feather chicken has higher market concentration, while the latter has higher marketing efficiency and shorter growth cycle.
In the strongest pig cycle, the market share of large-scale specialized pig breeding enterprises has been greatly increased. From free range breeding to industrial scale breeding, pig breeding is farewell to the era of natural economy. But chicken enterprises have already completed this industrialization process.
Deng Fei, general manager of Sichuan Sihai Sanlian Agricultural Development Co., Ltd., took the reporter of daily economic news to the new chicken house of the company. It was a winding country road, narrow enough for the next car to pass. The new chicken house is at the end of the path, very remote, two or three kilometers away from the company in shijingpu town. Deng Fei said that a newly built chicken house can hold 12000 chickens. Now wait for the chickens to arrive and fill them up immediately.
According to the above interviewees, the chicken industry is not a profiteering industry. Price fluctuation depends on large-scale breeding to reduce costs, such as feed costs and vaccine costs. Now the cost is certainly lower than that of free range farmers, but it is basically the ultimate cost. Further reduction is Jiao Jiao Fen Fen.
Under the risk of price fluctuation, farmers extend the production chain and try to share the risk. In the chicken industry, the self breeding mode of muyuan shares is rarely seen, and partial division of labor is a common mode.
According to the industry insiders, although the company only earns chicken seedlings by paying farmers a fixed fee for fattening commercial chickens, it can offset the risk of price fluctuations.
Before the hatchery was completed, Liu Shuling handed over the hatchery to a generation hatchery in Mianzhu. On July 22, Liu Shuling rushed to Mianzhu after work in Guangyuan. He wanted to count the weight of the chicken fry (different weight, different price). He mocked himself that the farming industry was a 996 job. He was bald before he was 50 years old, and he was white in his middle years.
The latest market: price recovery, listed companies actively expand production
Farmers are most concerned about the future price, but the chicken price has rebounded in the near future.
Its impossible to go back to what it was last year. Zhao jinhou, director of consumer goods research at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Research Institute and chief agricultural analyst, told the daily economic news that this mainly depends on the demand for chicken consumption.
Although it has become a consensus in the industry that it is difficult for the chicken price to return to its peak, the difference lies in whether the price fluctuation of the chicken cycle can be ironed out?
However, Liu Shuling is still worried that large enterprises will rush in again after the price rises, which will bring a lot of new production capacity.
The company has steadily expanded the production and supply area of yellow feathered chicken to provide more consumers with high-quality and safe yellow feather chicken products, according to a person concerned with Lihua shares. People concerned with Minhe shares said that the production of chicken seedlings and commercial chickens were expanding according to the normal plan.
Recently, Yisheng Co., Ltd. and Xiantan Co., Ltd. have signed a joint venture agreement to establish Shandong Yixian breeding poultry Co., Ltd., which is mainly engaged in breeding, feed processing, chicken hatching and sales, etc. The total investment of the project is 200 million yuan.
Lihua said in an investor survey in June this year that the companys future yellow feather chicken plate will continue to maintain an annual growth target of 5% - 10%, and increase the construction progress of supporting slaughter capacity of integrated chicken breeding company.
In July this year, Minhe shares disclosed the fixed increase fund-raising plan, and plans to raise 650 million yuan for the project of breeding 800 thousand sets of parent broiler breeders and the construction of an annual incubation plant of 100 million commercial broiler chickens.
The former said that they were in a meeting this week to discuss the future sales strategy, while the latter said that they were ready to enter the northern market such as Shaanxi.
To iron out the industry cycle, Ren Changchang and Liu Shuling hope that the industry will not have opportunistic fast money. Liu Shuling said: I really hope that the industry will not blindly go fast, not the same as in the past. Ren lamented that he didnt want the chicken price to fluctuate so much, and the huge profits and losses were unfavorable to the enterprise, we still hope to maintain reasonable profits.
No matter what cycle they are in, the enterprises that live longer are those with lower marginal cost, faster capital turnover and higher level of scale specialization. The cycle of rapid change of chicken industry will also lead to the change of supply structure - the free range farmers who are educated by the market will withdraw voluntarily, and the scale economy of large enterprises will maintain the production advantage. As one of the above industry analysts said, although the number of individual farmers is large, the proportion of aquaculture is very small.
In fact, chicken enterprises to iron the industry cycle can also extend the industry involved. For example, Shengnong development said in the semi annual report that the continuous expansion of food deep processing business and the continuous improvement of cooked food rate will effectively smooth the cyclical fluctuation of the industry.
It is worth mentioning that the reporter of daily economic news interviewed a number of listed companies and found that with the stabilization of chicken price, some listed chicken raising companies have gone out of the worst time.
People concerned with Minhe shares said that they are basically profitable now. Prebiotic shares concerned stressed that there are also seasonal factors, the season of June every year to catch up with particularly hot weather, is the off-season of chicken consumption. From the monthly sales data in June, chicken stocks have a strong rebound momentum. In June, the sales revenue of Yisheng company increased by 16.97% month on month, and that of Minhe shares increased by 31.86%. In the current quarterly and semi annual reports (or performance forecast), the chicken industry has delivered the worst performance in the past two years, and the net profits of many listed companies have dropped sharply. But on the other hand, the downward trend of the stock price reflects the negative performance. When the chicken price rises, this also lays the foreshadowing of the expected reversal. (the right of information network dissemination of this work belongs to Shenzhen Tencent computer system Co., Ltd. It can not be reproduced without authorization.) Source: Daily Economic News Editor: Wang Xiaowu_ NF
People concerned with Minhe shares said that they are basically profitable now. Prebiotic shares concerned stressed that there are also seasonal factors, the season of June every year to catch up with particularly hot weather, is the off-season of chicken consumption.
From the monthly sales data in June, chicken stocks have a strong rebound momentum. In June, the sales revenue of Yisheng company increased by 16.97% month on month, and that of Minhe shares increased by 31.86%.
In the current quarterly and semi annual reports (or performance forecast), the chicken industry has delivered the worst performance in the past two years, and the net profits of many listed companies have dropped sharply. But on the other hand, the downward trend of the stock price reflects the negative performance. When the chicken price rises, this also lays the foreshadowing of the expected reversal.