Some analysts said that novel coronavirus pneumonia on Tuesday was boosted by confidence in the first Russian new crown vaccine. Novel coronavirus pneumonia is also being discussed by White House advisers. Trump will hold a press conference to introduce the latest development of six new crown pneumonia vaccines. There was no significant macroeconomic data to be released last night, and the main driver of the market will still be risk sentiment.
As of 2:30 am today, gold T + D of Shanghai gold exchange closed down 8.0% to 403.11 yuan / g, while silver T + D of Shanghai gold exchange closed down to 5844 yuan / kg. Spot gold lost 1910 US dollars / ounce, down 5.72% within the day. Spot platinum fell 6.01% to $925.34/oz. COMEX silver futures fell sharply, down 15.06% in the day and is now trading at $24.92/oz. COMEX futures fell below $1910 / oz, down 5.66% in the day. Spot silver fell below $25 / oz, down more than $4 a day.
However, after the biggest one-day drop in gold in more than seven years last night, the spot gold and silver rose rapidly at 6:00 this morning. Spot silver rose rapidly to 3% within the day, while spot gold rose nearly 0.5% at 1920 US dollars / ounce. New York silver rose more than 2% to $25.50 an ounce, while gold rose 0.3% to $1927.6.
In the early morning of this morning, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange also announced that the maintenance margin of Comex silver futures contract in August was increased from 11500 US dollars to 13250 US dollars, up 15.2%; the initial margin of Comex 100 gold futures was increased from 9570 US dollars to 10230 US dollars, an increase of 6.9%.
In addition, the U.S. stock market closed down, the NASDAQ hit the biggest decline in more than two weeks, and the S & P and Dow ended seven days of continuous gains. Silver ETF fell more than 13%. Crude oil fell off a five month high. U.S. and U.S. Treasury bonds fell together, and 10-year U.S. bond yields rose the most in two months.
Where will precious metals go after the roller coaster market?
Xue Na, precious metal analyst of Nanhua futures, believes that since July 21, gold has risen rapidly by more than 13% in the short term since breaking through the intensive oscillation range. The short-term increase is too large, and there is a demand for profit taking in long positions, which is the main reason for the recent fall in gold price. In addition, novel coronavirus pneumonia cases in the United States have recently been on a downward trend, and the risk of demand has been declined due to the improvement of the epidemic. The recent economic data released by the United States is better than the market expectation, and the better economy also makes the demand for safe haven in the market decline In addition, the last round of the U.S. rescue plan expired at the end of July, and the two parties failed to reach an agreement on the new round of rescue plan. President trump signed an executive order to provide additional unemployment benefits, but the total scale was small. The United States failed to continue to release large amounts of water to rescue the market, which also had a negative impact on gold, but the impact was relatively small.
The price of silver has increased, which means that gold and silver have entered the late bull market. Cheng Xiaoyong, assistant director of Baocheng futures financial research institute, said that the reason is that the replenishment of silver represents that the liquidity spillover effect has expanded to any undervalued assets, and historically, in the late period of precious metal bull market, the recovery of gold and silver price ratio is usually realized through silver replenishment. As for other factors, such as the interference of output due to epidemic situation and the demand for safe haven, they are not the main factors affecting the price trend of gold and silver. The supply and price of gold and silver are positively correlated, that is to say, the decline of silver supply corresponds to the price decline cycle, and the demand for safe haven has a short-term effect on the price of gold and silver.
Cheng Xiaoyong said that since the US Federal Reserve almost ruled out the possibility of negative interest rates, it means that there is limited room for us dollar nominal interest rates to continue to fall in the future market, with floor effect. It is also limited that the real interest rate of the US dollar will continue to decline at the current low level unless inflation rises substantially beyond expectations. Moreover, the US non farm employment data in July exceeded expectations, the second round of US fiscal stimulus policy was difficult to produce, and the Federal Reserves easing policy did not increase the price, which means that gold and silver prices are facing greater adjustment pressure.
Novel coronavirus pneumonia and influenza outbreak are also needed to be noted in the short term, Xue Na said. In addition, attention should also be paid to the recent negotiations between the two parties on a new rescue plan. The United States and China will review the first phase of the trade agreement on August 15. It is expected that the first phase agreement will continue to be implemented, which may have little impact on the market.
Overall, xuena thinks that gold is still in the upward trend at present. With the recovery of the US economy, the inflation expectation of the United States is still upward. However, after the short-term rise of gold, the market may be more inclined to revise the market for a period of time in the future, and it is unlikely that there will be a big market again. Therefore, it is suggested that the long-term trend investors continue to hold more single shares, and the medium and short-term investors should be cautious in long-term, and the short-term market uncertainty is large, and there may be a period of adjustment.
The current valuation of glass is high, but the medium-term driving force is still in place
Yesterday, the domestic futures market glass futures once again appeared a number of contract limits, among which the main glass contract 2009 reached a record high since its listing, with 428000 positions in 2101 contracts and a capital inflow of 304 million. According to analysts of Huarong Rongda futures, the average price of float glass on spot was 1784.6 yuan / ton, up 205.5 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year. Since the beginning of May, the cumulative price increase has also exceeded 20%. Affected by the epidemic situation at the beginning of the year, prices continued to stay low after the Spring Festival, and glass futures began to rise in April. Since April, the cumulative increase of main glass contracts has exceeded 54%, and the glass price index has reached a new high since 2011.
Huarong Rongda Futures Research Center said that from the supply side, the recent decline in inventory is fast. According to the data, the total inventory of production enterprises in the key monitoring provinces this week was 36.5 million weight boxes, which was 3.83 million weight boxes less than last week, a decrease of 9.50%. In terms of demand, the market demand showed strong performance, traders and downstream deep processing had a high enthusiasm to take goods, the overall market production and sales were good, and the inventory continued to shrink. On the whole, the glass production capacity in the first half of the year decreased by 4.2%, and the centralized cold repair and shutdown inhibited the supply and improved the prosperity of the industry. After the end of the rainy season, real estate investment accelerated, the cost of fuel and raw materials decreased, and glass prices are expected to remain high. With the traditional peak season approaching in the later stage, enterprises are more willing to continue to rise, the market atmosphere continues to be better, and the optimism continues. The glass demand and price are expected to continue to strengthen. In the later stage, we should pay attention to the sustainability of downstream replenishment and the changes of production lines.
Zhang Chi, chief researcher of Guotai Junan Futures energy and chemical products, believes that although the current high value of 1906 yuan / ton of glass 09 contract is already in the pattern of high valuation, the spot premium of futures 09 contract is as high as 260 yuan / ton, whether the first round peak of peak season can reach such an increase is doubtful, and the future market may enter into an oscillation pattern. However, under the strong pattern of real estate, there is almost no new production capacity in the year. At present, it is still in the period of strong peak season. The driving force for the rise of glass in the medium term is still in force. After the adjustment of valuation from August to September, the glass will continue to rise in the fourth quarter.
Iron ore remains optimistic in the long term
Yesterday, iron ore futures rose sharply, closing price of 2101 contract was 834 yuan / ton, up 1.45%, with the highest intraday price of 851.5 yuan / ton,
The fundamentals of iron ore itself are actually good. Jiang Wenmin, head of the black group of Zhejiang Futures Research Center, said that from the perspective of demand, the average daily hot metal production in China reached 2.522 million tons, a new high. The average daily dredging volume also returned to the historical high level of 3158700 tons.
Wang zeyong, metal analyst of Nanhua futures, said that the supply and demand of steel fundamentals also improved significantly. The demand for screw thread steel sheet rose sharply from 267800 tons to 3.939 million tons, and the supply and demand of hot-rolled coil plate remained unchanged.
At the same time, Jiang Wenmin said that iron ores own inventory has recently shown signs of going to the warehouse, and from the year-on-year comparison, the iron ore port inventory is still at the historical low level. In this context, there are structural contradictions in iron ore inventory, block ore and pellet inventory is high and continues to rise, while the fine ore inventory is low and continues to decline. In addition, the inventory of deliverable fines is low. In addition, the base difference structure of iron ore is favorable for bulls. In August, iron ore 09 contract is still a substantial discount spot, the possibility of basis regression is greater. In his view, the basis repair market in recent months may come to an end. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to whether the shipment of Australia and Pakistan can be increased, especially the shipment of fine ore.
For the near future, Wang zeyong believes that iron ore fundamentals will not change much in the short term. Under the combined influence of high hot metal production, strong demand, low inventory, the arrival of downstream steel consumption peak season and iron ore futures discount, the iron ore probability rate will continue to be strong. However, we still need to pay close attention to the impact of macro monetary policy changes and the increasingly complicated Sino US relations on the black capital sentiment. At the same time, in the expected verification stage of downstream steel consumption peak season, the high production and high inventory of screw thread and the structure of disk water raising also bring certain pressure on the screw price, which will restrain the upward trend of iron ore price under the overall low profit situation. He suggested that the strategy of cautiously chasing up and buying on the low side should be maintained unilaterally, and the strategy of buy one, sell five could be considered in the spread between months.
Jujube rebound in the short term, difficult to sustain in the long term
Xiang Bo, a senior agricultural product analyst at Zhejiang Futures Research Center, believes that the reason for the rise of jujube yesterday is more to repair the bad effects brought by the early epidemic situation in Xinjiang. According to him, since the first case of Xinguan epidemic was found in Xinjiang on July 15, the number of new cases has been increasing every day. Since July 31, the number of new cases dropped from 112 cases the day before yesterday to 31 cases, ending the trend of rapid growth. Novel coronavirus pneumonia will be affected by the Xinjiang fermentation. The red dates as export will face the risk of trade stagnation, which will have a great impact on its supply and demand. At present, the market pessimism began to change after the epidemic situation in Xinjiang was controlled. At the same time, the Mid Autumn Festival is approaching, jujube begins to enter the consumption peak season, the consumption boost expectation also has certain beneficial stimulation. Of course, although the epidemic situation in Xinjiang has been alleviated at this stage, it is still continuing, and the demand in peak season is uncertain, so we still need to continue to observe. He cautioned.
Red dates red dates novel coronavirus pneumonia, which is a major disease, has a great impact on downstream consumer demand. The red dates include the overall supply pressure of fruits. The situation of red dates sales is not good, the inventory level is higher, and the spot price is lower than the same period in the past year. In the meantime, the jujube contract will cancel the warehouse receipt in September. 665 warehouse receipts are on the books, which will bring some pressure on contracts in recent months. In his opinion, jujube rose in the short term and is expected to rebound mainly. He paid attention to the boosting of consumption of jujube under the demand in peak season. If there is any improvement, try to participate in low-level single participation, but it is expected that the upper space will not be too large, and the overall trend may be wide swing.
Huarong Rongda futures jujube research and Development Center said that compared with seasonal fruits, the red date industry was not hit most directly. After all, the old jujube can still be stored in the warehouse, and the new jujube has not yet been listed. Its sales peak season should wait until after the Mid Autumn Festival. However, the economic growth slowed down significantly and the jujube production remained at a high level. In the future, attention should be paid to the influence of the weather in the production area on the growth of jujube in the new year. In general, jujube is difficult to get out of the independent strong market, it is recommended to continue to maintain the operation of short thinking.