Why the unlimited traffic package will die?

category:Internet
 Why the unlimited traffic package will die?


In the era of mobile Internet, traffic is the main source of income for operators. In the process of transformation to traffic management, in order to increase the scale of traffic revenue, operators are willing to feed tigers and allow instant messaging apps such as wechat to replace voice. Objectively speaking, the sharp drop in voice revenue and the surge in traffic revenue are the reasons why operators intentionally turn left hand to right hand.

In the early stage of 4G era, relying on high traffic unit price and in the spring tide of mobile Internet, operators promote traffic business to become a pillar source of income. The traffic unit price originally planned to be implemented by the operators was orderly and gradually reduced, and the pace was disrupted by China Unicom after the mixed reform. To some extent, batj shares in China Unicom by means of hybrid reform and jointly launches unlimited packages. Although it can enlarge the advantages of all parties in the mixed reform, it can not completely exclude the suspicion of further blood sucking operators.

The competition of unlimited traffic has entered the stage of naked hand to hand combat in 2018, and the threshold of unlimited packages is rapidly lowered to 29 yuan / month. Even for government and enterprise customers, operators also launched 19 yuan / month. In this kind of chaos, in order not to let the other side benefit, competing to launch lower packages to attract users has become the main competitive means of operators.

Driven by the ultra low price and unlimited package, Chinas mobile phone users Dou has leapt from about 1GB / month to 3gb / month and 4GB / month. In this process, although operators can watch the traffic volume skyrocketing, but the real gold and silver did not rise with it. Due to unlimited competition, the traffic management crisis finally broke out in the first half of 2019. The main performance is that the main business income of operators directly changes from micro growth to negative growth.

The data released by the Ministry of industry and information technology is very convincing. It is only one year since the positive growth of 3.7% to the negative growth of 0.2%. This year is also going through the most intense stage of unlimited traffic and competition. If the senior managers of operators have time to review the past, they dont know how they will view the decisions that have damaged the scientific development of the industry.

From a negative growth of 0.2% to a positive growth of 3.2% at the end of June this year, it has been nearly a year. In this process, no matter how fast the income of various emerging businesses grows, the steady growth of flow income plays a role of ballast. Among them, the rational competitive operation vigorously implemented by the regulatory authorities in 2019 has played a very important role in promoting.

As a bridge between the content provided by Internet companies such as batj and users, in theory, operators can charge fees from Internet companies and users, so as to achieve their own profit-making goal. In the industry, the pre payment refers to that the operator collects fees from the user side, while the post payment refers to the charging from the Internet company side.

If the operators charge users free or symbolic, they need to charge the corresponding fees from the Internet companies. In essence, unlimited packages have the meaning of charging users symbolically. After all, users can use unlimited traffic for less. If only users are charged free or symbolic, but not charged to Internet companies synchronously to make up for the corresponding losses, then the free of operators will not be able to play.

If the post payment mode has been implemented, then the operators can transfer the payment cost for serving the user side to the Internet companies. In this case, the operators will try their best to encourage the users to use the traffic, so that they can collect more fees from the Internet companies and continue to make a large scale of revenue.

According to logical speculation, in the absence of post payment mode, the possibility of operators to implement ultra low price traffic unlimited again is zero. After all, practice has proved that this game is unsustainable. Promoting the implementation of the post payment model is not a task that can be completed by the operators themselves, but needs the joint promotion of various forces from the whole society.

3u3001 Operators didnt figure out how much space there was for small profits and quick sales

From the beginning of 4G era, there have been various voices that require operators to give profits to consumers by means of small profits and high sales. In fact, the three major operators have been steadily pushing forward the pace of traffic price reduction, but this pace has been completely disrupted after the mixed reform of China Unicom. Although the purpose of unlimited competition of operators is to enhance their competitiveness, it objectively promotes the realization of national informatization.

After 5g commercial operation, in order to expand the scale of 5g package users, operators began a new round of traffic price reduction. Although the current 5g package threshold is still relatively high, the cost-effectiveness problem between the sustained substantial price reduction and the large investment in 5g is worth studying by operators.

No matter what the real reason is, at least one thing is very clear: unlimited packages are not unpopular. Under the promotion of various preferential migration policies of operators, there are fewer and fewer users of unlimited traffic packages. Although 5g package is also in the continuous price reduction, but we think that before the emergence of 5g specific applications, the majority of users should not easily change their unlimited packages. (Zhang Yunlai is a special author of c114)

Extended reading: the United States admits that 5g strategy has made mistakes: from a millimeter wave supporter to a medium band follower, Rakuten Mobile said its network will cover 96% of Japans population next summer. CCTV head office will send 11 projects cooperation application guidelines such as 5g, 4K / 8K and blockchain. Source: c114 communication network editor in charge: Liu Fei_ NBJS10390