The reason for the stock market crash has been found! Back in 2017?

category:Finance
 The reason for the stock market crash has been found! Back in 2017?


However, around 10 oclock, science and technology medicine began to weaken, leaving only big consumption and banks as the two leading actors. One of the leading roles of the bank, wave bank, has a strange trend today. Originally, I thought that the wave bank was going to hang up CMB today, but it fell clean.

In the afternoon, the feeling that two CITICS are going to do something again is that a shares are supported by two CITICS these days. But this time, the two CITICS were deceptive. By the end of the day, China CITIC construction investment fell by 7 points and CITIC Securities by nearly 6 points. If there is a conditioned reaction to the changes of the two CITICS, they rush in today and are buried. It can be seen that the stock market has no rules. Sometimes its like this. Youve been watching all the time, and this rule holds, but once youre done, its a ghost.

Interestingly, the northbound funds retreated almost at the same time as the beginning of the market crash, but at the end of the day, they came back.

When I saw the withdrawal of northbound funds, I subconsciously went to see the overseas market. As a result, the overseas market was calm and the US period was stable. The fluctuation was probably only gold. Gold fell a lot. Gold fell for two reasons. One is that the international political and economic environment is better, which is good; the other is that liquidity should be tightened, which is bad. Of course, there is another kind of transaction The reason is that if you go up a lot, you have to call it back, and if you go down a lot, you have to rebound. At present, the first two reasons have not been seen, mainly due to the transaction.

After the closing of a shares, Europes three stupid opened, rose sharply, opened high and went high, two points. When a shares are still trading, the US period is stable, and after the A shares close, the US futures market also starts to rise.

Thus, it can be seen that the A shares fell on their own today, which also dragged down the Hong Kong stocks in the small three market. After the closing of a shares, Hong Kong stocks began to rebound. However, the H shares of China CITIC Construction Investment Co., Ltd. went deeper and deeper, and CITIC securities was not bad. Recently, CSC has repeatedly announced that it denies merger rumors, but CITIC Securities, the other protagonist of the scandal, has not made a single announcement. This is interesting.

As for why the A shares will fall today, I found a circle, did not see the obvious reason. However, the currency data coming out after hours is likely to be a trigger factor. After years of mixing in a shares, we all know that the information confidentiality of a shares is just like that.

Before we talk about monetary data, lets talk about the other two time nodes.

One is August 15, that is, this Saturday. According to the Wall Street Journal, China and the United States have agreed to hold video talks on August 15, focusing on the implementation of the first phase of the trade agreement. Considering that the United States is in a general election, it is possible for the United States to find fault in the meeting if the meeting is held as scheduled.

Of course, there is no definite information as to whether the meeting has been finalized. At a regular press conference hosted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on August 5, AFP reporters asked this question, and the Ministry of foreign affairs did not give a positive answer. However, we should be wary of the possibility of turbulence on Thursdays and Fridays in recent weeks since Black Thursday, July 16.

The second time point is the official landing of the registration system on the gem. On August 2, the first batch of registered companies applied for purchase. In terms of time, it may be listed between this Friday and next Wednesday, which also means that we will usher in a stimulus of up to 20%. I dont know whats going to happen.

As I said before, one thing is very interesting. A year ago, everyone was worried about the registration system, but the registration system of gem really came and no one was worried about it.

Because of this time point, and the marginal tightening shift of monetary policy at the 730 Political Bureau meeting (reflecting two words: one is that the monetary policy has been set with more precise guidance, and the second is that the scale of social finance has increased from significantly higher to reasonable growth), I personally prefer to guard against risks and keep profits in August.

Back in the after hours monetary data, M2 grew 10.7% year-on-year, slower than expected and slowing. New yuan loans were also lower than expected. In fact, the monetary margin tightening started in June, and the expectation of interest rate and reserve rate reduction has been falling short. The monetary data in July confirmed this point. Follow up on August, if it continues to slow down, it will be obvious.

The monetary tightening does not mean that it will collapse. The current leveraged capital in the stock market is not 2015. The over-the-counter capital allocation is very popular, and it is not 2018. Check the trust and P2P, thus triggering a series of deleveraging. Therefore, there is no need to worry about monetary tightening.

But for one thing, monetary tightening means that the overall bull market is probably gone. A tight currency, a good economy, and limited capital will only pursue companies with more certain profits or better growth. The stock market is likely to return to what it was in 2017.

After writing, I have a look at the overseas market, which is rising very well. I think the A-share market should be good tomorrow, but some preparations have to be made. Source of this article: Ge longhui editor: Chen Hequn_ NB12679