A shares late diving reason found! Li Daxiao and other five experts predict future market trend

 A shares late diving reason found! Li Daxiao and other five experts predict future market trend

Li Daxiao, chief economist of Yingda securities

Todays A-share late dive is actually a normal adjustment, there is no need to be too panic. I think this adjustment means the following two points:

First, there may be some changes in the market style. Those who focus on growth may return to value.

Second, the risk of overvalued stocks is gradually increasing, and the opportunities of undervalued stocks are gradually coming.

GUI Minghao, manager of Market Research Department of Shenyin Wanguo Securities Research Institute: there are big differences in the future market

I think the most important thing is that the market encountered greater resistance when it hit the integer level, and there was a big divergence in the future market. Because the recent high is mainly led by the financial sector, but the financial sector in this years market trend itself is not particularly strong, of course, there are some weak.

First, because the market does not go up unilaterally like the previous stage, there will be more shocks, so we should avoid chasing up.

Second, some varieties are more speculative, and cash speculation is relatively high. We should also be alert to the varieties that are obviously overvalued.

First of all, from the news: one is money supply. The broad money growth in July was 10.7%, 0.4 points lower than last month. The whole money supply showed a downward trend from May, June and July. This situation will cause some market worries, because the money supply indicates whether the monetary policy will not be as loose as before, which will make people worry about the follow-up What should we do if we continue to narrow down? If we narrow down again, we may have some funds to come out, which may be one of the reasons for the market diving.

Second, it is rumored that foreign investors (American securities companies) may enter the A-share market, and the domestic economic business license should be lifted. Because at present, the income share of domestic market economic business is still very high, once foreign securities companies come in, the domestic market will certainly be impacted. Because this mornings rise was led by securities companies, but after 2:00 p.m., it was actually the securities companies that led the decline. Moreover, the external market environment is still good today, including the rise in the United States yesterday, and the increase in Europe is basically more than 2% and 3%, which means that there are too many negative effects in the periphery. Therefore, it is possible that these two news aspects caused a short-term decline in the market.

In addition, from todays amplitude, it was good to see that the mornings rise was good, but the first fall in the afternoon was a correction of about 1%, and todays amplitude was 2%. In this way, the whole short-term technical side has formed a direction to look for in the short term. Lets look at the K line in the past four or five trading days. Basically, it is at the same price. Todays closing point is 3340. Then take a look at this section, which is near 3350. For several consecutive trading days, it fluctuates above 3350. Therefore, both long and short sides are basically balanced, and todays decline, it is impossible to say that we have been trading sideways at a certain point, and will definitely choose a direction in the short term. If we choose the direction in the short term, there will be a trend of decline or poor short-term expectation today. I estimate that there may be some adjustment in the short-term, but the overall downward range is limited, that is to say, there may be a continuous bottoming process in the short-term direction.

But in the medium and long term, we dont see more bad aspects now. I think the short-term trend of the market is a huge shock. After the shock, including the digestion of these short-term psychological factors - money supply and foreign investment, the overall market in the medium term is still upward, and the general trend has not changed. We cant change all our good expectations just because of the one hour diving in the afternoon. After all, the fundamentals have not changed.

Liu Jingde, deputy general manager of Xinda securities research and Development Center

Because now the securities companies have a greater impact on the market. In the morning, the securities companies lead the market to rise, including banks. In this way, as soon as the securities companies plunge, many stocks like banks and insurance companies will have a tail market dive.

But generally speaking, many stocks are in the low position, including securities companies, so the problem of diving is not very big. The key is to see whether the securities companies, including the stocks like Baijiu, can recover directly. It is estimated that these stocks will not fall too much. So generally speaking, the tail market diving should not affect too much.

Sun Jianbo, chairman of the board of China reading capital: avoid speculation on the hot spot of short-term rising too fast

The late dive actually shows that there are some underdogs. I think the reason why they are not optimistic is that after the bottom came up, many of the so-called bottom hold ups in the past lacked information and made short-term trading decisions. This kind of trading decision often has a negative impact when the rise is blocked. I think this kind of trading sentiment is a normal phenomenon of a rising platform period.

Investors should pay attention to two points:

First, we should avoid the hot spots that rise too fast in the short term, because these hot spots which rise too fast in the short term are easy to be reduced and sold off, and will be trapped once the tide goes down.

Second, correspondingly, it is necessary to invest in long-term value stocks, find companies with clear performance growth in the next two or three years, make a healthy and relatively stable layout, hold such stocks, and obtain the income of market growth in the future.

This article is the exclusive contribution of Netease Research Bureau and does not constitute investment decision.

Produced by Netease Research Bureau (wechat official number: wyyjj163)

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