Iron ore futures price lost 900 yuan / T, spot side contradiction is still the main logic of trading

 Iron ore futures price lost 900 yuan / T, spot side contradiction is still the main logic of trading

Stable 900 yuan / ton

Wenhua carry on quotation shows that on Thursday and Friday, the main iron ore contract 2009, driven by bulls, reached a new high in the year and remained above the 900 yuan / T level. However, it was then lost at this level. The bulls failure to hold the 900 yuan / T level indicates that the structural contradiction at the spot side is highlighted again.

The reporter also found that since this year, iron ore futures price has maintained a strong trend along with the current price. The 2009 contract rose from 594.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 894 yuan / ton at present, with an increase of 50.5%. From the perspective of trend, the trend of the first quarter maintained a wide range of shocks. In the second quarter, the market went out of the V reverse market and entered the third quarter. After a small correction, the unilateral market was obvious, breaking through 700 yuan / ton, 800 yuan / ton and 900 yuan / ton. As of August 10, 2009 contract closed at 894 yuan / ton, down 5.5 points, or 0.61%, with a turnover of nearly 400000 hands, holding a stable position above 410000 hands, and daily position reduction of 31000 hands.

Many analysts said that due to the impact of the epidemic at the beginning of the year, the demand for iron ore was once questioned, and the futures and spot prices fell simultaneously. In the signs of Chinas economic recovery in the second quarter, the spot price of iron ore returned to the rising channel again. So far, the futures and spot prices have maintained a strong momentum in the counter shocks, mainly due to the structural contradictions at the spot end.

Shi Lei, director of new era futures investment consulting department, told the Securities Daily that iron ore futures price rose by more than 50% this year, and the amplitude was as high as 69.13%. The main rising wave of the rise was as high as 61.73%. From the overall trend of the year, the first half of the year due to the changes in the epidemic situation and four stages of deduction: first, the epidemic intensified the downward pressure on Chinas economy, the domestic total demand fell sharply, and the spot price of iron ore in the futures market fell rapidly; then, as the epidemic situation was well controlled at the end of the first quarter, the demand expectation was revised, and the iron ore futures price started the second phase of V reverse trend; in the middle of March After that, the epidemic spread to the global market, and the global economic linkage led to the second bottoming of iron ore futures price; in the fourth stage, the main rising wave of iron ore futures price ushered in a big rise again, driven by the favorable macro aspects. For example, the Federal Reserve released unlimited liquidity, and the dollar index has fallen by 9.27% since the end of March, which also provides the basis for the rise of iron ore pricing in the US dollar.

An analyst of a futures company in Zhejiang told reporters that in the near future, the spot market demand of iron ore has always been strong, and the production of molten iron has continuously reached a new high, but the supply is also in the process of gradual recovery. On the whole, the tense pattern of supply and demand in the early stage has been eased, but at the same time, the structural contradiction of the spot side has not been solved. On the one hand, the import of iron ore is limited due to many reasons, leading to a decline in the supply of mainstream fine ore; on the other hand, the adjustment of steel mills for ore blending is relatively slow, and the demand for mainstream powder ore is still high. Two factors make the spot price easy to rise and difficult to fall, and there is a certain discount on the iron ore plate. Therefore, the short-term price performance is relatively good.

Fundamental recovery

Will make the price return to rationality

Due to the imbalance of supply and demand at the spot side, the spot and futures prices rose at the same time. However, with the gradual correction of fundamentals, analysts believe that the spot price of iron ore will be corrected and the market trading will return to rationality.

According to the public data, Chinas total iron ore supply is sufficient at this stage. In the first half of this year, the domestic iron ore output totaled 413.953 million tons, an increase of 4.5%; in July, Chinas total import of iron ore sand and concentrate was 112.647 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.76%, breaking through the 110 million tons for the first time; in the first seven months of this year, Chinas total imports of iron ore sand and concentrates totaled 660 million tons, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year The average import price was 641.2 yuan per ton, up 1.1% year on year. At the same time, the four major international mines increased production in the second quarter, and the epidemic situation did not cause obvious constraints on overseas mine production. For example, Australia and Brazil delivered goods to China normally; in the past month, the total amount of iron ore arriving in Hong Kong in China has increased significantly.

It is worth mentioning that in order to meet the delivery demand of the market, some indicators of iron ore brand delivery have been removed by Dashang exchange, and the iron ore grades meeting the delivery requirements are rich. Analysts said that the exchanges modification of delivery standards not only expanded the quantity of deliverable products, but also ensured the quality of deliverable products. Especially in the current situation where the price difference of high, medium and low products is unbalanced, brand delivery makes it possible for domestic fine powder, super special powder and other varieties to deliver.

Source of this article: Yang Qian, editor in charge of Securities Daily_ NF4425