How much pressure does the U.S. block wechat or affect Apples industry chain

category:Finance
 How much pressure does the U.S. block wechat or affect Apples industry chain


The administrative order is interpreted by the industry as saying that the overseas Google App market and Apple App store may be removed from the shelves of tiktok and wechat after September 20. As soon as the news came out, the above-mentioned problem of choosing one from two was put in front of the fruit powder.

On August 7, Apple shares fell 2.27%. On August 10, the decline of A-share Apple index was the largest, with the drop limit of Apples distributor in China, the limit of huanxu electronics, and the drop of Xinwei communication, lens technology and BYD.

Shipment volume or 30%?

If the U.S. government asked apple to remove wechat from the app store, the industry would not be surprised. Apple had previously removed wechat from Indias app store in response to government requests.

Apple mobile phone or wechat? The latter or the choice of most people is supported by the following data:

Only 40% of the well-known users of wechat gave up using the mobile phone, and only 55% of the users who participated in wechat gave up voting.

Once the apple store is removed from wechat, the impact on the sales of Apple mobile phones is self-evident.

According to Guo Ming of Tianfeng securities, if the former is pessimistic, the shipment volume of Apple hardware products in the Chinese market will decline significantly. It is estimated that annual iPhone shipments will be revised down by 25% - 30%, while other Apple hardware devices, including airpods, iPad, applewatch and MAC, will be revised down by 15% - 25%.

If it is the latter, it will mainly have a negative impact on wechat users in the United States. It is estimated that iPhone shipment will be reduced by 3% - 6%, while the annual shipment of other Apple hardware devices, including airpods, iPad, applewatch and MAC, will be reduced by less than 3%.

If the policy is implemented, it will have a great impact on Apple sales, and the company will probably negotiate with the U.S. government. An electronics industry analyst told reporters, Apples iPhone 12 is expected to be launched in September, but the orders are planned ahead of time every year. This year, affected by the epidemic, it has been pushed back by a month. Previously planned orders are not likely to be affected, but due to this event, future orders may be reduced.

Apple industrial chain division of labor around the world, domestic companies can not avoid the storm. On the 10th, the A-share Apple index fell 1.38%, and the agency also began to downgrade the industry.

As the degree of execution of Trumps order is not clear, there may still be new increments or fermentation in the future. Taking into account the cumulative gains in the past two months, the industry rating will be lowered to neutral from this week. According to the latest research report of Pacific Securities. Guo Ming suggests that investors at least reduce their holdings of certain apple supply chain stocks at this stage.

The impact of industrial chain performance is delayed

Since the beginning of this year, consumer electronics has suffered a lot. In the first quarter, affected by the epidemic, apple sales fell sharply; in the second quarter, the epidemic situation eased, apple sales ushered in recovery growth, and the performance of domestic apple industry chain companies also rose.

Among the 20 apple industry chain companies that have disclosed the half year performance forecast, 3 companies are expected to reduce, 2 companies are going to lose, 1 company is going to make a loss, and 14 companies are expected to have a good performance. The sales volume of related products of the companies with good performance has achieved a substantial growth.

Among them, Apples lens module supplier ofI Guang is expected to achieve a net profit of about 450 million yuan to 550 million yuan in the first half of this year, with a year-on-year increase of 2043% - 2519%. The company said that the optical business maintained rapid growth, some large customers orders increased, high-end module and optical lens shipment increased, and profitability continued to improve. The net profit of Changying precision increased by 71.33% - 93.61% in the first half of the year, mainly due to the relatively large growth of laptop, tablet and wearable products.

However, if the above-mentioned administrative order is reached, the continuous improvement of A-share industrial chain companies will have a chain effect.

IPhone business branches will be most affected, and those services with relatively low dependence on wechat, such as headphones and watches, will be less affected. Take the iPhone 12 as an example. Previously, the industry chain predicted that mobile phones would be shipped from November to December. The performance of Q3, a manufacturer of the industrial chain, would be slightly lower, while the performance of Q4 and next years H1 would be improved. If this matter finally comes to an end, the decline in H1 performance next year will be obvious. Said the electronics industry analyst.

Crystal optoelectronics is an optical component manufacturer in the upstream of Apples industrial chain. The relevant person in charge told reporters, the US governments blocking of wechat will have a greater impact on the terminal of the industrial chain, but it is difficult to judge the impact on the terminal, and it is difficult to judge the future product shipment based on such a news. Although the mobile phone industry accounts for 60% - 70% of the companys revenue, the company also has many auxiliary industries, including reflective materials, led, smart home products, financial payment, etc. The mobile phone industry chain is not the only dependence of the company, and the overall anti risk ability of the company is gradually enhanced. This person also believes that wechat is just a social software, and app developers will not hang up on a tree of wechat. As long as consumers have demand, they will definitely develop new software, and wechat is not completely irreplaceable. Source: Yang Bin, editor in charge of economic report in the 21st century_ NF4368

Crystal optoelectronics is an optical component manufacturer in the upstream of Apples industrial chain. The relevant person in charge told reporters, the US governments blocking of wechat will have a greater impact on the terminal of the industrial chain, but it is difficult to judge the impact on the terminal, and it is difficult to judge the future product shipment based on such a news.

Although the mobile phone industry accounts for 60% - 70% of the companys revenue, the company also has many auxiliary industries, including reflective materials, led, smart home products, financial payment, etc. The mobile phone industry chain is not the only dependence of the company, and the overall anti risk ability of the company is gradually enhanced.

This person also believes that wechat is just a social software, and app developers will not hang up on a tree of wechat. As long as consumers have demand, they will definitely develop new software, and wechat is not completely irreplaceable.