Export oriented cities under internal circulation: 17 cities dependence on foreign trade exceeds 50percent

category:Finance
 Export oriented cities under internal circulation: 17 cities dependence on foreign trade exceeds 50percent


On July 30, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to set the policy and work objectives for the second half of the year, and proposed to accelerate the formation of a new development pattern with the domestic big cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual circulation promoting each other. This is not only a new measure to deal with the current external environment changes and the impact of the epidemic, but also to cultivate the new advantages of Chinas participation in international cooperation and competition under the new situation.

Since the outbreak of this years epidemic, Global trade has suffered a heavy setback, and many export-oriented cities are in trouble. According to the world economic outlook report recently released by the International Monetary Fund, the global economy will shrink by 4.9% in 2020, including 8% in developed economies and 3% in emerging markets and developing economies. In this context, the proposal of Chinas double cycle strategic pattern has attracted close attention from all parties.

The external degree of urban economy, also known as foreign trade dependence, refers to the proportion of the total foreign trade of a city or region in GDP, which reflects the close relationship between the regional economy and the international economy. The 21st Century Economic Research Institute combs the economic data of 37 major cities in the first half of this year, and finds that 17 of them, whose foreign trade dependence is more than 50%, are still experiencing negative economic growth in the first half of this year, with an average economic growth rate of - 1.68%. The average economic growth rate of the other 20 cities whose foreign trade dependence is less than 50% is significantly better than the former, which is 0.025%.

6 cities dependence on foreign trade exceeds 100%

Which city is more dependent on foreign trade import and export? Among the 37 major cities counted by the 21st Century Economic Research Institute, 17 cities are now dependent on foreign trade more than 50%, namely Dongguan, Suzhou, Shenzhen, Xiamen, Jinhua, Zhoushan, Shanghai, Ningbo, Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Beijing, Dalian, Tianjin, Huizhou, Qingdao, Wuxi and Jiaxing.

Generally speaking, these cities are mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas, concentrated in Guangdong in the Pearl River Delta, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang in the Yangtze River Delta, and Beijing and Tianjin in the Bohai Rim region.

What is the level of dependence on foreign trade higher than 50%? From the national level, Chinas dependence on foreign trade has dropped from more than 60% before the financial crisis in 2008 to 31.8% in the first half of this year. According to this, these 17 cities are obviously higher than the national average, and are typical regions with high dependence on foreign trade.

Among them, Dongguan, Suzhou, Shenzhen, Xiamen, Jinhua and Zhoushan are all more than 100% dependent on foreign trade. Dongguan, known as the factory of the world, has the highest dependence on foreign trade, reaching 129.2%, far higher than Suzhou, which ranks second.

In 1978, Dongguan, a small agricultural county bordering Guangzhou in the north and Shenzhen in the south, introduced Taiping handbag factory, the countrys first three come and one supplement enterprise, marking the formal start of introducing foreign capital into the country. Dongguans main export commodities also changed from spices in the Ming and Qing Dynasties to high-tech products, and its smartphones accounted for about 1 / 5 of the total global shipment. As of the first half of this year, the total import and export volume of Dongguan was 563.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.2%, and the GDP in the same period was 436.128 billion yuan.

Among the other cities with high dependence on foreign trade, Suzhous foreign trade rose from the Suzhou mode of attracting investment and introducing foreign capital economy by local township enterprises. In the first half of this year, Suzhous total import and export volume reached 144 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, accounting for 7% of Chinas total import and export value. Xiamen is one of the first special economic zones approved by the State Council. In the first half of this year, the total import and export value was 308.183 billion yuan, an increase of 3.9%.

Of course, as an international metropolis, Shenzhens high dependence on foreign trade has its inevitable causes. The frequent international personnel and economic exchanges, coupled with the narrow administrative area, make Shenzhen need to allocate resources in a wider market. In the first half of this year, Shenzhens total import and export volume reached 1335.675 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. The total export volume has ranked first among large and medium-sized cities in the mainland for 27 consecutive years.

In terms of import and export, foreign trade dependence can be divided into import dependence and export dependence. If we say that the foreign trade dependence of the above five cities is so high, it is because of the high import and export factors. Jinhuas high dependence on foreign trade is entirely dependent on the strength of its own exports.

In the first half of this year, Jinhua realized a total import and export volume of 215.24 billion yuan, of which the export was as high as 205.87 billion yuan, while the import was only 9.37 billion yuan. After all, export dependence is as high as 98%. Among them, Yiwu, the worlds largest small commodity distribution center, has contributed more than 60% of its foreign trade share.

On the contrary, among the 17 cities with high dependence on foreign trade, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Zhoushan and other places are relatively special. They are typical trade deficit areas, and their dependence on imports is significantly higher than that on exports.

Export oriented cities in urgent need of transformation

As China moves towards a new pattern of dual cycle development with domestic big cycle as the main body, the differentiation of development trend among different cities is more obvious.

According to the statistics of the 21st Century Institute of economics, among the 17 cities with a foreign trade dependence of more than 50%, more than half of the cities in the first half of this year showed negative economic growth. In particular, 8 cities, including Zhongshan and Huizhou, are significantly deeper than the national average of - 1.6%.

Affected by this, the dependence on foreign trade of many eastern coastal cities has declined significantly. For example, Dongguans dependence on foreign trade dropped from 145.6% at the end of last year to 129.2% in the first half of this year, a decrease of 16.4 percentage points; the foreign trade dependence of Huizhou, Zhuhai and Beijing has also decreased by more than 10%.

Why are cities with high dependence on foreign trade more likely to suffer economic shocks? From the point of view of the three driving forces of the economy, the three driving forces of the economy are usually relatively low.

For example, in the first half of this year, Dongguans GDP was 436.128 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. Among them, export, consumption and investment were 341.47 billion yuan, 169.571 billion yuan and 92.779 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 78%, 39% and 21% of GDP respectively. The impact of export market on local economic growth can be seen.

Furthermore, in these export-oriented cities which have been dominated by processing trade for decades, the secondary industry accounts for almost half of the country. For example, in 2019, Dongguans second industry accounted for 56.5%, Suzhous 47% and Zhongshans 49%. As the manufacturing industry is relatively rigid, in the case of a sharp decline in overseas order demand, processing trade oriented cities are more vulnerable to negative impact.

Taking Dongguan as an example, during the international financial crisis, Dongguans economic growth slowed down from double-digit to single digit, and even showed negative growth in the first quarter of 2009. Dongguan, which has been under constant pressure on foreign trade this year, has encountered this problem again. In the first quarter, the economic growth rate dropped by 8.8%. Although the decline rate has narrowed in the first half of the year, it still has a negative growth of 1.7%. Since the reform and opening up, the development mode based on international circulation has made many coastal cities become star cities, and the economic growth rate is far ahead. However, the core technology of the foreign trade development mode with two ends outside and large import and export is always in the hands of developed countries, which is easy to be choked at the moment of crisis. The 21st Century Economic Research Institute believes that under the new background of taking the domestic big cycle as the main body, cities with high dependence on foreign trade need to accelerate the transformation of industrial structure. In addition to digging the domestic demand market, the layout of industrial chain and supply chain also needs to be adjusted in time to adapt to the internal circulation pattern, so as to offset the external risks and uncertainties. This article is from Wang Xiaowu, editor in charge of economic report in the 21st century_ NF

Taking Dongguan as an example, during the international financial crisis, Dongguans economic growth slowed down from double-digit to single digit, and even showed negative growth in the first quarter of 2009. Dongguan, which has been under constant pressure on foreign trade this year, has encountered this problem again. In the first quarter, the economic growth rate dropped by 8.8%. Although the decline rate has narrowed in the first half of the year, it still has a negative growth of 1.7%.

Since the reform and opening up, the development mode based on international circulation has made many coastal cities become star cities, and the economic growth rate is far ahead. However, the core technology of the foreign trade development mode with two ends outside and large import and export is always in the hands of developed countries, which is easy to be choked at the moment of crisis.

The 21st Century Economic Research Institute believes that under the new background of taking the domestic big cycle as the main body, cities with high dependence on foreign trade need to accelerate the transformation of industrial structure. In addition to digging the domestic demand market, the layout of industrial chain and supply chain also needs to be adjusted in time to adapt to the internal circulation pattern, so as to offset the external risks and uncertainties.