What is the impact of this round of share reduction on the market? In this regard, the reporter of securities times u00b7 e company interviewed a number of industry insiders, most of them said that from the driving factors of the current round of market boom, the bull stock reduction tide may aggravate the fluctuation of individual stocks in the short term, but the medium and long-term trend of slow structural bull will not be hindered.
Increase or decrease of ice and fire
In recent days, the number of listed companies that issued the announcement of reducing Holdings has increased significantly. According to statistics, since August, more than 200 listed companies have announced plans to reduce their holdings, with a total market value of 45.3 billion yuan, which is more than that of the same period last month. On the contrary, the number of listed companies that have announced plans to increase their holdings is a small number of single digits.
According to statistics, since 2020, more than one-third of listed companies have issued announcements of major shareholders plans to reduce their holdings, which is close to the level of the whole year in 2019.
The reporter found that from the middle of July, the A-share market ushered in a wave of reduction. Based on the total number of shares to be reduced multiplied by the stock price on the day of announcement, the scale of reduction of Listed Companies in July reached 111.886 billion yuan, much higher than that in other months of this year. Correspondingly, in the middle of July, all the major stock indexes of A-share market rose to the stage highs, and the stock prices of many stocks reached new highs.
It can also be seen from the completed reduction that the reduction of industrial capital is obviously warming up. According to statistics, in July, the net share reduction scale of important shareholders of listed companies reached 96.756 billion yuan, the monthly reduction scale reached a new high in the year; in the same period, the net increase scale reached 9.446 billion yuan, less than one tenth of the reduction scale.
From the perspective of the relevant reduction cases, the motivation of industrial capital reduction is diversified. Zhou Maohua, a macro analyst at the financial market department of Everbright Bank, told reporters that, firstly, the stock market has risen rapidly in the short term since July, and some senior executives have cashed out of the high level of good market sentiment and market liquidity; secondly, some individual stocks have been speculation, which makes their valuation deviate from the fundamentals, and some executives are not optimistic about the future trend and take profits while the stock price is at a relatively high level, Affected by the overseas epidemic situation and severe economic situation, some shareholders and senior managers are pessimistic about the future development of the company.
This round of share reduction was born after the market rose sharply, and the hot plate became the main driving force.
According to the announcement on the planned reduction of shares, pharmaceutical biology, electronics, computer and other industries, which led the rise this year, are also in the forefront, with 71.713 billion yuan, 68.66 billion yuan and 42.464 billion yuan, respectively. However, the steel industry, mining industry and other industries with backward growth this year are planning to reduce their holdings.
Tibet pharmaceutical, one of the big bull stocks this year, announced on the evening of August 7 that Huaxi pharmaceutical, the companys shareholder, plans to reduce some of its shares. From the beginning of the year to the announcement date, the companys stock price has increased by more than five times. On August 4, the companys stock price reached a record high in the session, and then showed an adjustment trend.
Wangfujing, a tax-free concept stock, announced on the evening of July 13 that the reduction plan of the companys shares, Tokyo Guorui fund, would be carried out by means of centralized bidding, with no more than 15.525 million shares and 2% of the companys total share capital.
In addition to Tibet pharmaceutical and Wangfujing, there are many big bull stocks have been reduced. According to statistics, more than 230 companies announced plans to reduce their holdings this year, and their stock prices have risen by more than 50% before the announcement of the plan, of which 68 companies have doubled their share prices in the year.
In addition, there are frequent cases of clearance type reduction. For example, Dow, Maiwei, Chunqiu electronics, Yuxin technology, etc., the companys share price has doubled since the beginning of the year before the announcement of the liquidation plan.
On the one hand, there is a large amount of clearance and reduction, on the other hand, there are few plans to increase holdings, and even many companies plans to increase their holdings have been delayed.
Chaos behind the excitement
Generally speaking, under the premise of the companys rising share price, shareholders and executives will make a trade-off between holding profit and reducing holding realization. When the stock price reaches the expected price, there will be an incentive to reduce.
From the perspective of the purpose of the reduction, most of the cases are active reduction due to the needs of business development, their own capital needs or arrangements, and the realization of good returns to shareholders; on the contrary, passive reduction cases caused by equity pledge are significantly reduced.
In addition, some shareholders who intend to reduce their shares said that they are still optimistic about the companys future development prospects. Infineon announced on the evening of August 5 that several important shareholders of the company said that due to the personal capital arrangement, it planned to reduce some shares to meet the personal capital demand, and continued to be optimistic about the companys development prospects.
Of course, some chaos has also been exposed in the reduction of some companies. The most obvious thing is that under the new regulations, there are still many shareholders of listed companies not afraid of the red line to reduce their holdings in violation of the rules, resulting in letters of apology constantly.
On the evening of August 10, China bamboo science and technology announced that fan Chunyan, the shareholder and Changzhou Sanmao Textile Group, who acted in concert, did not inform the listed company when reducing the shareholding to 5% of the total share capital, and did not suspend the reduction operation; although the shareholder Gongqingcheng xinyongquan investment partnership (limited partnership) prepared and issued a simple form equity change report to the company when reducing its holding to 5% of the total share capital, it did not suspend the reduction Operation.
In addition, there are many shareholders of the company without announcement. *St maiqu announced on the evening of August 7 that the securities account of the controlling shareholder Xinjiang maiqier Group Co., Ltd. was reduced within 15 trading days from the disclosure date of the reduction plan. The company verified with the shareholder maiqier group that the reduction was caused by passive reduction. Merrill group apologized for the reduction.
According to incomplete statistics, there have been frequent violations of shareholders holding of listed companies recently, such as Anjing food, Huaxin new materials, Hongxun technology, superstar technology, Weihong, Ruipu biology, grand blasting, etc., which have issued apology announcements or issued warning letters due to illegal reduction of holdings.
What is the impact of tide reduction?
Many investors regard the reduction of industrial capital as a signal of market adjustment.
Zhou Maohua told the securities times that the impact of the reduction on the market is mainly reflected in the signal level. The reduction tide mostly reflects the psychological price of industrial capital, but it is not the real price. In most cases, it corresponds to the signal of local high points in the market, which will not have a trend impact on the market, but only form a local impact. In theory, the reduction and increase of holdings is one of the basic market mechanisms. Only when resonance is formed under special circumstances will it have a certain impact on the market.
For the impact of this reduction, Zhou Maohua also said that compared to the bull market in 2015, the bull market in the current round did not appear large-scale irrational and leveraged behavior (over-the-counter allocation chaos). The stock markets overall valuation did not appear to drag down the fundamentals of bubble tendency, and RMB assets were in the global value depression. With the deepening of Chinas reform and opening up, the attractiveness of RMB assets continues to increase, and China is expected to continue the long-term structure of slow bull market. This round of bull share reduction is more likely to have an impact on individual stocks.
From the objective data, we can see that under the current market environment, the significant reduction of the major shareholders of listed companies has no significant impact on the secondary market share price. According to the statistics of reporters from stock times u00b7 e company, from the market performance since the first announcement date, the average increase in the range of individual stocks to be reduced is nearly 20%. Since the announcement of the proposed reduction of shares issued by Haiqi group, Yingke medical, Guangqi technology and other companies, the stock prices have not changed upward trend, and many companies have doubled their growth.
Recently, the international and domestic environment has brought about great changes in the market investment logic. For example, the valuation of semiconductor and domestic alternative industries has risen to the highest level in history, while the previous popular entertainment and game industries have lowered their valuation. Industrial capital may also notice these changes and make a certain adjustment. This wave of industrial capital reduction may reflect such operation to some extent Kuang Yuqing, founder of lens research, said. Although the major shareholders are closer to the core, they also have the limitation of only being in the mountain. Investors should pay more attention to the quality of the company in combination with the market environment, look for the logic of stock price rise, maintain independent thinking, and avoid echoing others. For stocks with high performance growth, if the important shareholders can release some chips, it will help the companys stock price to be active; for stocks without performance support and partial concept speculation, the high stock price may be chicken feather in one place. Source: Securities Times editor in charge: Yang Bin_ NF4368
Recently, the international and domestic environment has brought about great changes in the market investment logic. For example, the valuation of semiconductor and domestic alternative industries has risen to the highest level in history, while the previous popular entertainment and game industries have lowered their valuation. Industrial capital may also notice these changes and make a certain adjustment. This wave of industrial capital reduction may reflect such operation to some extent Kuang Yuqing, founder of lens research, said.
Although the major shareholders are closer to the core, they also have the limitation of only being in the mountain. Investors should pay more attention to the quality of the company in combination with the market environment, look for the logic of stock price rise, maintain independent thinking, and avoid echoing others. For stocks with high performance growth, if the important shareholders can release some chips, it will help the companys stock price to be active; for stocks without performance support and partial concept speculation, the high stock price may be chicken feather in one place.