Pay attention to three factors for high growth and falling stock price! The market has changed

category:Finance
 Pay attention to three factors for high growth and falling stock price! The market has changed


There was a net inflow of northward funds. Wind data showed that on August 10, the net inflow of northward funds was 0.07 billion. Although the amount was not large, it reversed the situation of net outflow for three consecutive days. If the short-term net inflow is sustained, the mode of buying and buying northward funds may be opened again.

Semi annual report disclosure in full swing

According to wind data, as of 8:30 p.m. on August 10, a total of 392 companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have disclosed the 2020 interim report. This week, there will be 203 enterprises operating situation surfaced, the performance disclosure of listed companies began to accelerate. Among them, this Friday night was the most, with 101 semi annual reports focusing on disclosure, while there were less than 40 from Tuesday to Thursday evening.

From the companies that have disclosed their performance, a total of 348 companies have realized profits from the net profit of their parent companies, and only 44 companies have made losses, accounting for 88.78% of the total profits. Although there are not many companies that disclose semi annual reports, the proportion of profitable shares in the first quarter has increased significantly, which highlights that the domestic economy has been on the right track since the resumption of work and production, and the operation of listed companies has basically returned to normal.

However, in terms of performance growth, a total of 220 companies have achieved year-on-year growth, accounting for 56.1%, which is lower than that in previous years. However, under the influence of the environment, more than half of the companies can still grow against the market, and the overall situation is not bad.

The overall performance of the 55 companies disclosed on the evening of August 10 was better. According to wind data, only 4 companies lost money and the remaining 51 made profits. In terms of year-on-year growth, 36 companies achieved growth in the first half of the year, accounting for 65.5%. In particular, the growth rate of 12 companies, including Jiangnan high-speed fiber and Hunan Haili, increased by more than 100%, mainly from capital goods, materials and other industries.

Short term rise is big, stock price has been overdrawn

According to the normal logic, high performance growth often stimulates the stock price to go up. However, in recent days, many companies that reported high growth in performance in the announcement have fallen after the release of the performance. Three major reasons can not be ignored.

1) The valuation is too high: for example, Jingfang technology disclosed the semi annual report on the evening of August 7. In the first half of the year, the company realized a revenue of 455 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 126.96%, and a net profit of 156 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 623.97%. On August 10, the companys stock price opened lower and went lower, falling by 6.70%. In fact, since this year, the companys share price has risen substantially. If the cycle is prolonged, the companys share price has risen by more than 500% since September last year, and the current P / E ratio has exceeded 100 times, and the stock price may have overdrawn the performance growth rate.

2) Low performance base: for example, rapoo technology released the semi annual report of 2020 on the evening of August 7, realizing the operating revenue of 192 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.60%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 32.245 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1058.49%. The high growth of the companys performance is based on a low base in the same period last year. In fact, the growth rate of revenue in 2018 and 2019 has declined for two consecutive years, and there are even large losses in 2019. Even if the current performance level is maintained, the valuation is still relatively high in terms of the current stock price.

3) Benefit from emergencies, persistent doubt: the outbreak of the epidemic in the first half of this year caused the performance of many pharmaceutical and biological companies to soar, and the share prices of related companies also rose. With the control of the future epidemic situation, there is great uncertainty whether the performance can continue to maintain a high growth rate. With the announcement of the performance of the China Daily News, some funds choose to close as soon as they are good. And the recent callback of pharmaceutical stocks is also more, there is no lack of continuous limit.

On August 10, the household products sector continued to strengthen, with Zhibang home furnishings and gold kitchen cabinets trading limits, while piano, Jiangshan oupai and other stocks rose sharply. Securities companies said that under the catalysis of three factors, namely, the backward completion cycle, the upward trend of hardcover business and the optimization of competition pattern, the market of furniture plate is coming, which is expected to drive up the revaluation of plate valuation.

Since August, the furniture sector has obviously outperformed the whole market. As of August 10, the wind household goods index rose 11.87% in August, Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.09%, Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.64%, and gem index fell 2.15%.

Real estate post cycle recovery expected to boost

Furniture and processing equipment belong to the post cycle industry of real estate. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to June 2020, the completed residential area in China will be 206.8 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, and the decline rate will be narrowed by 1.1 percentage points compared with January to May and 4.7 percentage points from January to April.

From January to June 2020, the sales area of commercial housing in China was 611.19 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%, 4.2 percentage points narrower than that of January may and 11.1 percentage points lower than that of January April.

Wind data shows that in July 2020, the export value of Chinas furniture and its parts reached US $5.531 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 23.1% and an increase of 14.7 percentage points compared with June 2020. From January to July in 2020, the cumulative value of Chinas furniture and its parts exports reached 27.962 billion US dollars, a cumulative decrease of 5.8% year-on-year, and the decline rate was 5.8% smaller than that from January to June 2020.

The agency said that under the catalysis of three factors, namely, the backward completion cycle, upward trend of hardcover business and optimization of competition pattern, the market of furniture plate is coming, which is expected to drive up the revaluation of plate valuation.

Can new hot spots last?

For the recent correction of gem, the main reason is the deep correction related to vaccine. However, the vaccine related increase is too large in the early stage, which leads to high valuation. It is not difficult to find that the overvalued value will inevitably lead to the divergence after the premium of the market for the board. For example, most of the fund reduction announcements at the high level and the contributors of the announcement of shareholder reduction are also pharmaceutical Science and technology are two major sectors of the stock.

According to the analysis of Guosheng securities summer team, infrastructure investment is expected to continue to rise after the rainy season in the second half of the year, and the start of infrastructure REITs pilot application is worthy of attention. At present, the blue chip valuation of construction is at the bottom of history. After the sharp rise of fabricated main line, undervalued products are expected to usher in valuation repair.

The TangXiao team of Tianfeng Securities believes that the investment logic of the construction sector this year is actually relatively clear. In the first half of the year, under the adjustment of counter cyclical policy in response to the epidemic situation, investment and economy recovered strongly, with abundant liquidity, increased risk preference, and the valuation of many stocks increased significantly. At the same time, the strong recovery of the economy is full of imagination, boosting the valuation of some stocks range.