Huang Qifans decoupling theory on Sino US trade

category:Finance
 Huang Qifans decoupling theory on Sino US trade


Huang Qifan stressed that China should always adhere to four principles in response to Sino US trade friction and decoupling theory:

First, throw away fantasy and prepare for struggle;

Third, keep the bottom line and respond flexibly;

At the same time, China should recognize five trends

First, the general trend of globalization will not change, and the multi polar globalization is taking shape;

Second, the trend of the world economy moving eastward to Asia will not change;

Fourth, Chinas deeper and higher-level reform and opening-up trend will not change;

Huang Qifan pointed out that compared with the general trend of globalization, the decoupling theory issued by individual countries and individuals is bound to be just an episode. China should have a long-term vision, plan for deeper reform and higher level of opening-up, and accelerate the formation of a benign pattern of internal circulation as the main body and two-way circulation interaction.

At present, there are more and more clear signs that the United States wants to decouple from China in all aspects of trade cooperation.

In terms of investment cooperation, American enterprises in China are required to withdraw their capital, and Chinese enterprises are also hindered from investing in the United States. Commercial negotiations between the two countries have also been shelved.

In terms of financial business, American banks and insurance companies are required not to provide financing loans or insurance guarantee services for Chinese enterprises. In addition, the voice of cutting off the channel for China or Hong Kong to enter the US dollar settlement market has been heard from the US public opinion field.

Will financial and industrial and commercial enterprises in the United States follow the instructions of these politicians and promote decoupling from China? It can be said that 80% to 90% will not.

Thousands of foreign-funded enterprises in the United States have been investing in China for more than 20 years. Last year, the business volume reached 700 billion US dollars, the profit reached 50 billion US dollars, and the profit margin of sales was about 7%. All the benefits were very good. Huang Qifan pointed out.

It is not trump who can direct entrepreneurs, but the market, and the benefit orientation of optimal allocation of resources. In the past and in the future, economic laws play a long-term role. He pointed out.

Huang Qifan believes that there are several major trends in human economic and social development that will not change, let alone subversive changes due to short-term policy behavior or personal will. The specific manifestations are as follows:

First, the trend of globalization will not change and multipolarization will become a new trend.

Huang Qifan pointed out that the exchange activities between the markets of various countries have given birth to the trend of globalization, which is caused by economic laws and the product of the optimal allocation of human resources for hundreds of years. In this sense, globalization may be reversed for a period of time with various manifestations, but the general trend will not change.

I think the pattern of globalization will change in the next 10 to 20 years. The epidemic may give birth to a power shift in 20 to 30 years, and a multi polar globalization will appear;

The US dollar may no longer dominate the world. Currencies such as the US dollar, the euro, the RMB, the Japanese yen, and the British pound have their respective places, thus giving birth to diversified globalization. This will be a new trend. Huang Qifan said.

Second, the trend of the world economy moving eastward to Asia will not change.

Huang Qifan said that in the past 40 or 50 years, the world economy has moved eastward to Asia. In 1980, the total economic volume of Asian countries accounted for 20% of the worlds total, and now it has reached about 37% of the worlds. If the economic growth rate increases by 4-5 points every 10 years, it will reach 50% in 30 years. This is a inevitable trend.

Among them, Chinas economic scale is constantly expanding. At present, with Asias total economy accounting for 37% of the worlds, Chinas total economic volume has accounted for 17% of the worlds. Huang Qifan believes that Chinas economy will continue to grow in the next 30 years.

Fourth, Chinas deeper and higher-level reform and opening-up trend will not change.

Any powerful country must have an internal circulation economy accounting for more than 80% of GDP and an external circulation economy accounting for less than 20%, as is the case in the United States, Germany, France, Britain and Japan. Huang Qifan said.

He said that since the 1980s, China has put forward an external circulation mode of two ends in the outside world, large input and large output, and formed a development strategy suitable for that time by taking advantage of Chinas competitive advantage of cheap labor force. Subsequently, the export-oriented economy of the whole country developed faster and faster, reaching 65% in 2006, but then the proportion gradually decreased to 32% now.

Huang Qifan made it clear that in fact, advocating internal circulation is not a short-term response to the epidemic situation or international decoupling. In order to become a world economic power, China must pursue the development strategy of internal circulation as the main body in the next few decades.

The current internal circulation is not the internal circulation under closed conditions, nor is it the internal circulation of planned economy, but the internal circulation under the open pattern. It is a concept that the internal and external circulation of opening and internal circulation support each other.

Huang Qifan further explained that what we need to do now is to break the external circulation work inertia formed by leading cadres and entrepreneurs at all levels for decades, and reexamine the significance of innovation, investment and consumption to the national economy.

First of all, in terms of innovation, Huang Qifan said that with internal circulation as the main body, we should encourage all kinds of enterprises and research institutions to carry out innovation, and do a good job in technological innovation and business model innovation. Such innovation will be an endless driving force for a nation and a country.

Secondly, in the investment of enterprise legal person, the success of internal circulation depends on the total net assets of a society, not the total assets.

If a places net assets were 1 trillion yuan and this years profits were 300 billion yuan, if these profits were accumulated into the investment and become the net assets of the new year, it shows that the entrepreneurs are confident in the future; on the contrary, if the 300 billion yuan profits of the entrepreneur have been transferred, and the net capital of the 1 trillion yuan has been reduced by 100 billion yuan, it means that the local investment There are problems with the capital environment, or the development expectations are not in place. Huang Qifan said. Finally, we should pay more attention to the peoples consumption ability. How can we increase the income and consumption power of 400 million middle-income people? How can we halve the number of 600 million low-income groups in rural areas, so as to increase the demand and consumption of internal circulation? In short, there are different coordinates for the development of internal circulation. If we do all these work well, it will gradually become a huge driving force for development. Huang Qifan said. Extended reading of Mercedes Benz accessories from Taotao: online shopping only costs 4000 4S stores to earn 24000, and trump is accused again? Amazon and other 52 technology giants jointly sued a vice president of China Construction Bank for bribing the party secretary of the university to break the rules to admit his daughter_ NB12679

If the net assets of a place were 1 trillion yuan and the profits this year were 300 billion yuan, if these profits were accumulated into the investment and become the net assets of the new year, it shows that entrepreneurs are full of confidence in the future;

On the contrary, if the entrepreneurs profit of 300 billion yuan has been transferred away, and the net capital of RMB 1 trillion yuan has been reduced by 100 billion yuan, it indicates that there is a problem with the investment environment in this place, or the development expectation is not in place. Huang Qifan said.

Finally, we should pay more attention to the peoples consumption ability.

How can we increase the income and consumption power of 400 million middle-income people? How can we halve the number of 600 million low-income groups in rural areas, so as to increase the demand and consumption of internal circulation? In short, there are different coordinates for the development of internal circulation. If we do all these work well, it will gradually become a huge driving force for development. Huang Qifan said.