Non food prices were flat month on month and year-on-year. Among them, affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil price, the price of gasoline and diesel increased by 2.5% and 2.7% respectively; summer travel increased, and the price of air ticket and hotel accommodation increased by 2.9% and 1.7% respectively.
Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician of the city Department of the National Bureau of statistics, said that in July, various departments in various regions made overall plans to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control, rescue and relief, and economic and social development, and actively implemented the policy of ensuring supply and price stability, and the market operation was generally orderly. It is estimated that among the 2.7% year-on-year increase in July, the tail effect of last years price change was about 2.9%, and the impact of new price increase was about - 0.2%.
Interpretation 1: pork prices have risen for two consecutive months, will they rise again?
In July, pork prices rose 85.7% year-on-year, 4.1 percentage points higher than the previous month, and 10.3% month on month, 6.7 percentage points higher than the previous month.
Pork prices have risen for two consecutive months. Since this year, with the improvement of pig supply, pork prices have continued to decline. However, in June, pork prices rose by 3.6% month on month. In July, the rise continued and expanded, with a month on month increase of 10.3%.
In terms of market, data from the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas showed that the wholesale price of pork in July rose by 13.9% month on month, up 103% year-on-year. The prices of alternative meat, such as beef and mutton, also rose. The prices of beef and mutton increased by 17.7% and 10.4% respectively.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) today (August 10) explained the reasons for the rise in pork prices: with the gradual recovery of catering services, the demand for pork consumption has continued to increase, while floods in many places have had a certain impact on pig transportation, and the supply is still tight.
In addition to increasing demand and transportation pressure, supply is also recovering. The National Bureau of statistics previously said that the slight rise in pork prices was due to factors such as the slowing down of pig production, strict requirements for epidemic prevention and distribution, and the reduction of import volume.
Specifically, as the only province with CPI exceeding 5 in the first half of the year, Sichuans pork price rose 101.9% year-on-year. According to the Statistics Bureau of Sichuan Province, pig production in the second half of last year was greatly impacted by African swine plague. In the early stage, small and medium-sized farmers abandoned their farms, and now they are gradually resuming supplementary breeding. In the first half of the year, 22.287 million pigs were put on the market, with a year-on-year decrease of 19.1%.
Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin investment, believes that the recent rise in pork prices is affected by supply and demand factors.
From the perspective of demand, after the epidemic situation has been controlled, previously suppressed consumption demand for catering and other things has gradually released in recent months. With the rapid growth of demand, the supply has affected the transportation due to the recent flood disasters in many places. In addition, the pork supply in some places in the previous stage is in a relatively shrinking state. In the recovery process, the supply-demand relationship appears some stage imbalance.
In addition, as the rise of pork price in the same period of last year has not started completely, the pork price did not reach the highest level until the end of last year and the beginning of this year, which is the reason why the price of pork has been increasing year on year.
Lian Ping believes that on the whole, although the demand will be further restored with the stable epidemic situation, at the same time, the supply will also be significantly expanded, so as to better match the demand, the relationship between supply and demand will gradually improve, and the possibility of a sharp rise in pork prices is small. Combined with last years pork prices, it can be predicted that the year-on-year data of pork prices will also decline significantly in the second half of this year or the fourth quarter.
Yang Zhenhai, director of the animal husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, previously said that although pig production capacity has recovered positively, the pattern of tight pork supply has not fundamentally changed. He predicted that the market supply will gradually improve after July, but due to more festivals in the second half of the year and stronger driving force for consumption, the peak of pork price may appear around September.
Interpretation 2: after 9 consecutive months of decline and then rise, rocket egg return?
u2014u2014Expert: the egg cycle is short, the price rise will gradually stabilize after 1-2 months
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, the wholesale price of eggs has been rising for four consecutive weeks, and the increase continues to expand. In the latest week (from July 27 to August 2), the wholesale price of eggs rose by 11.3% month on month. Monitoring by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas showed that the wholesale price of eggs on July 31 was 8.33 yuan / kg, up 33% compared with 6.26 yuan / kg on June 30.
However, compared with the same period last year, eggs are not expensive. Although it rose 4.0% month on month in July, it still decreased by 16.6% compared with the same period last year, with a decrease of 0.8 percentage points. The monitoring data of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas also showed that in July, the average wholesale price of eggs was 6.84 yuan / kg, up 6.7% month on month, but decreased by 26.1% year on year.
With regard to the price increase, the Department of market and information technology of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas said that the price of eggs would also rise in the same period in previous years, but the increase was not so large. At present, there is no situation that the supply of eggs in the market is in short supply, or the bulk purchase of food processing enterprises has expanded the increase of egg price to a certain extent.
In addition, the rise in egg prices is also driven by rising costs. Zhengzhou Municipal Development and Reform Commission pointed out that feed prices have risen. At present, corn price is 1.2 yuan per Jin, up 26.3% year-on-year; wheat bran price is 0.95 yuan per Jin, up 63.8% year-on-year. Judging from the recent market situation, egg prices are still rising. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, from July 27 to August 2, the weekly average price of egg wholesale market was 8.18 yuan per kilogram, up 14.7% month on month and 12.3% lower than the same period last year. After analyzing the trend, the Department of market and information technology of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas believes that from the price trend of previous years, there is still room for the price of eggs to rise in the later stage. Lian Ping believes that the rise in egg prices may not last. Compared with the pork cycle, the egg cycle is much shorter, and the obvious price rise will gradually stabilize after 1-2 months. Source: Beijing News, author: Jiang Huizi, editor in charge: Wang Xiaowu_ NF
In addition, the rise in egg prices is also driven by rising costs. Zhengzhou Municipal Development and Reform Commission pointed out that feed prices have risen. At present, corn price is 1.2 yuan per Jin, up 26.3% year-on-year; wheat bran price is 0.95 yuan per Jin, up 63.8% year-on-year.
After analyzing the trend, the Department of market and information technology of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas believes that from the price trend of previous years, there is still room for the price of eggs to rise in the later stage.
Lian Ping believes that the rise in egg prices may not last. Compared with the pork cycle, the egg cycle is much shorter, and the obvious price rise will gradually stabilize after 1-2 months.