Huang Qifan: China should adhere to four principles in response to us decoupling

category:Finance
 Huang Qifan: China should adhere to four principles in response to us decoupling


At the same time, China should recognize five trends: first, the general trend of globalization will not change, and multi polarization globalization is brewing; second, the trend of the world economy moving eastward to Asia will not change; third, a new round of industrial revolution is taking place, which is expected to pull the global economy out of recession; fourth, Chinas deeper and higher-level reform and opening-up trend will not change; fifth, internal circulation Driven by the pattern of two-way circulation and interaction, Chinas economy has a strong growth potential.

Huang Qifan pointed out that compared with the general trend of globalization, the decoupling theory issued by individual countries and individuals is bound to be just an episode. China should have a long-term vision, plan for deeper reform and higher level of opening-up, and accelerate the formation of a benign pattern of internal circulation as the main body and two-way circulation interaction.

The U.S. government strongly promotes Chinas decoupling in various fields

At the above summit, Huang Qifan pointed out that to study the current world economic pattern, the first thing to study is the current social and economic pattern of the United States. At present, there are three characteristics of American Society: first, stagflation; second, populism; third, politicians throwing off the pot and targeting China.

In this case, the decoupling measures in various aspects of China are becoming more and more specific, and the contents are more and more abundant. At present, there are more and more clear signs that the United States wants to decouple from China in all aspects of trade cooperation.

In terms of investment cooperation, American enterprises in China are required to withdraw their capital, and Chinese enterprises are also hindered from investing in the United States. Commercial negotiations between the two countries have also been shelved.

In terms of capital market, the United States is picking a thorn from more than 200 Chinese capital stocks listed in the United States, while new Chinese enterprises are becoming more and more resistant to listing in the United States.

In terms of financial business, American banks and insurance companies are required not to provide financing loans or insurance guarantee services for Chinese enterprises. In addition, the voice of cutting off the channel for China or Hong Kong to enter the US dollar settlement market has been heard from the US public opinion field.

Will financial and industrial and commercial enterprises in the United States follow the instructions of these politicians and promote decoupling from China? It can be said that 80% to 90% will not. Thousands of foreign-funded enterprises in the United States have been investing in China for more than 20 years. Last year, the business volume reached 700 billion US dollars, the profit reached 50 billion US dollars, and the profit margin of sales was about 7%. All the benefits were very good. Huang Qifan pointed out.

It is not trump who can direct entrepreneurs, but the market, and the benefit orientation of optimal allocation of resources. In the past and in the future, economic laws play a long-term role. He pointed out.

Adhere to the four principles and recognize five trends

Huang Qifan stressed that to deal with Sino US trade frictions and Sino US decoupling theory, China should always adhere to four principles: first, lose illusions and prepare for struggle; second, keep calm and enhance confidence; third, keep the bottom line and respond flexibly; fourth, grasp the key points, make up for the weaknesses and do its own thing well.

Huang Qifan believes that there are several major trends in human economic and social development that will not change, let alone subversive changes due to short-term policy behavior or personal will. The specific manifestations are as follows:

First, the trend of globalization will not change and multipolarization will become a new trend. Huang Qifan pointed out that the exchange activities between the markets of various countries have given birth to the trend of globalization, which is caused by economic laws and the product of the optimal allocation of human resources for hundreds of years. In this sense, globalization may be reversed for a period of time with various manifestations, but the general trend will not change.

I think the pattern of globalization will change in the next 10 to 20 years. The epidemic may give rise to a power shift in 20 to 30 years, and a multi polar globalization will emerge. The US dollar may no longer dominate the world, and currencies such as the US dollar, euro, RMB, yen, pound and so on will occupy their respective places, thus giving birth to diversified globalization. This will be a new trend. Huang Qifan said.

Second, the trend of the world economy moving eastward to Asia will not change. Huang Qifan said that in the past 40 or 50 years, the world economy has moved eastward to Asia. In 1980, the total economic volume of Asian countries accounted for 20% of the worlds total, and now it has reached about 37% of the worlds. If the economic growth rate increases by 4-5 points every 10 years, it will reach 50% in 30 years. This is a inevitable trend.

Among them, Chinas economic scale is constantly expanding. At present, with Asias total economy accounting for 37% of the worlds, Chinas total economic volume has accounted for 17% of the worlds. Huang Qifan believes that Chinas economy will continue to grow in the next 30 years.

Third, a new industrial revolution is taking place. The industrial revolution has constantly made mankind jump out of the predicament and embark on a new platform and a new road. Huang Qifan said, now it is the era of intelligent industrial revolution. In recent years, this era has just begun. In the next few decades, the intelligent industrial revolution is expected to really pull the global economy out of its predicament.

Fifth, Chinas economy has strong growth potential. In the future, this kind of growth potential must be driven by the pattern of internal circulation as the main body and two-way circulation interaction, so as to lead China to a strong country.

Innovation, consumption and investment under the pattern of internal circulation

Any powerful country must have an internal circulation economy accounting for more than 80% of GDP and an external circulation economy accounting for less than 20%, as is the case in the United States, Germany, France, Britain and Japan. Huang Qifan said.

He said that since the 1980s, China has put forward an external circulation mode of two ends in the outside world, large input and large output, and formed a development strategy suitable for that time by taking advantage of Chinas competitive advantage of cheap labor force. Subsequently, the export-oriented economy of the whole country developed faster and faster, reaching 65% in 2006, but then the proportion gradually decreased to 32% now.

Huang Qifan made it clear that in fact, advocating internal circulation is not a short-term response to the epidemic situation or international decoupling. In order to become a world economic power, China must pursue the development strategy of internal circulation as the main body in the next few decades.

The current internal circulation is not the internal circulation under closed conditions, nor is it the internal circulation of planned economy, but the internal circulation under the open pattern. It is a concept that the internal and external circulation of opening and internal circulation support each other.

Huang Qifan further explained that what we need to do now is to break the external circulation work inertia formed by leading cadres and entrepreneurs at all levels for decades, and reexamine the significance of innovation, investment and consumption to the national economy.

First of all, in terms of innovation, Huang Qifan said that with internal circulation as the main body, we should encourage all kinds of enterprises and research institutions to carry out innovation, and do a good job in technological innovation and business model innovation. Such innovation will be an endless driving force for a nation and a country.

Secondly, in the investment of enterprise legal person, the success of internal circulation depends on the total net assets of a society, not the total assets. If a places net assets were 1 trillion yuan and this years profits were 300 billion yuan, if these profits were accumulated into the investment and become the net assets of the new year, it shows that the entrepreneurs are confident in the future; on the contrary, if the 300 billion yuan profits of the entrepreneur have been transferred, and the net capital of the 1 trillion yuan has been reduced by 100 billion yuan, it means that the local investment There are problems with the capital environment, or the development expectations are not in place. Huang Qifan said. Finally, we should pay more attention to the peoples consumption ability. How can we increase the income and consumption power of 400 million middle-income people? How can we halve the number of 600 million low-income groups in rural areas, so as to increase the demand and consumption of internal circulation? In short, there are different coordinates for the development of internal circulation. If we do all these work well, it will gradually become a huge driving force for development. Huang Qifan said. Source: Chen Hequn, editor in charge of economic report in the 21st century_ NB12679

Secondly, in the investment of enterprise legal person, the success of internal circulation depends on the total net assets of a society, not the total assets. If a places net assets were 1 trillion yuan and this years profits were 300 billion yuan, if these profits were accumulated into the investment and become the net assets of the new year, it shows that the entrepreneurs are confident in the future; on the contrary, if the 300 billion yuan profits of the entrepreneur have been transferred, and the net capital of the 1 trillion yuan has been reduced by 100 billion yuan, it means that the local investment There are problems with the capital environment, or the development expectations are not in place. Huang Qifan said.

Finally, we should pay more attention to the peoples consumption ability. How can we increase the income and consumption power of 400 million middle-income people? How can we halve the number of 600 million low-income groups in rural areas, so as to increase the demand and consumption of internal circulation? In short, there are different coordinates for the development of internal circulation. If we do all these work well, it will gradually become a huge driving force for development. Huang Qifan said.