It is not difficult for feed production enterprises to give up antibiotics. The difficulty lies in how to develop and produce a new type of feed with high quality, accurate nutrition ratio and alternative effect of antibiotics according to the demand of breeding end. Many industry insiders told reporters that the R & D capacity and capacity scale of high-quality feed will determine whether feed enterprises can survive and grow in this round of industry upgrading and shuffling.
In fact, with the total output of the feed industry entered a stable development period in 2012, in the face of the situation of large-scale improvement of breeding and intensified competition of feed enterprises, the industry concentration began to increase. According to the data of China Feed Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as China Feed Association), the total number of feed enterprises decreased from 16454 in the peak period to more than 6000 in 2015. According to the forecast report on market competition pattern and industry development prospect of Chinas feed processing industry from 2019 to 2025 released by Zhiyan consulting in November 2019, the concentration of feed industry is still increasing, and the advantageous enterprises with high efficiency, large scale and industrial chain value are accelerating to occupy the market, and the total number may drop to 3000 in the next two or three years. The outbreak of African swine fever in 2018 has brought about a sustained impact. Eighty nine percent of the profits of small and medium-sized feed enterprises in the industry come from pig feed. The withdrawal of these enterprises will certainly accelerate the speed of industry concentration. The superposition of multiple factors such as African swine fever, prohibition and restriction of resistance, environmental protection and other factors will promote the advantageous feed enterprises to usher in the opportunity of great changes in the industry.
On the other hand, Chinas feed production capacity is gradually concentrated to the main production areas. In 2019, there are 9 provinces with feed output exceeding 10 million tons, which are ranked as Shandong, Guangdong, Guangxi, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Hebei, Hubei, Sichuan and Hunan, respectively, 2 less than the previous year. Among them, the total output value of feed industry in Shandong and Guangdong continues to maintain above 100 billion; the output of 12 provinces in China has increased year-on-year Among them, Guizhou, Yunnan, Gansu, Ningxia, Xinjiang and other western provinces increased by more than 20%.
Zhu Yong will concentrate more on animal husbandry and animal husbandry industry in the future Speed up integration.
In addition, there are many small and medium-sized single category feed factories, whose decentralized and regional business model will be seriously impacted. In the future, they may build feed business with comprehensive factory and group operation mode, so as to grasp the advantages of large-scale enterprises in procurement cost control, quality control, brand system construction, etc., otherwise, it is difficult to obtain sustainable survival in the industry Opportunities for competition.
At present, among the feed enterprises with a domestic output of more than 10 million tons, new hope Liuhe has won the first place. According to the annual report in 2019, the companys feed sales volume is 18.72 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9%, and its output has reached a record high. It has grown into a leading enterprise with the largest feed sales volume in China and the third in the world. The companys first bio environmental feed sales also doubled to 2.1 million tons. At the same time, the companys gross feed profit reached 3.437 billion yuan last year, which also reached a new high, with a year-on-year increase of 14.50%.
First finance reporter learned from new hope Liuhe and relevant responsible persons that the company started the research on reducing resistance and substituting antibody technology in 2006 when the European Union started the feed anti drug ban in a comprehensive way, continuously tried to gradually reduce or even stop using drugs in feed, and took the lead in promoting the series of products of environmental protection feed for birth products. After the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas issued a comprehensive no resistance policy, the team of new hope Liuhe feed Research Institute, based on the original technical achievements, formulated a comprehensive solution for pig breeding 6h without resistance, which started from six aspects of nutrition precision, raw material screening, process optimization, biological environmental protection, functional additives and standardized production, and according to the different growth stages of pigs, the nutrients were determined In order to improve the digestibility of feed and regulate the intestinal health, the low protein diet nutrition model was used to reduce the feed cost, and the 6S standardized production system was strictly implemented to control.
Since May this year, the company has gradually produced 6h non resistant feed. It is expected that the total sales of feed will exceed 20 million tons in 2021, becoming the first domestic feed enterprise with a scale of more than 20 million tons.
Demand for functional additives for anti viral agents
Novel coronavirus pneumonia, a special household in Hubei Ma City, has raised a group of nearly 100 red shell layers after the trough of the new crown pneumonia outbreak in early July. Since the publication of the feed ban order in early July, he has found that the price of corn and soybeans has increased a lot, and has increased.
In the middle of July, the feed factory announced to raise the price, and the price per ton increased by about 50 yuan on the previous basis. This year, the price of eggs fluctuated greatly, and everyone is adapting to it. Zhang Feng told the first finance and economics reporter that the feed of his home and several small and medium-sized chicken farms nearby were prepared by a local feed factory. Before the anti-virus order was officially issued, there was no antibiotic added in the feed. Instead, nutritional supplements such as cod liver oil and multi vitamins and traditional Chinese Medicine were replaced. At present, antibiotics are only used when chicks are sick at the growth stage. After laying eggs, they are basically not used Our chickens and eggs are collected by the contracted enterprises. Now we are very strict in the inspection, and we generally dont take risks to give drugs at will. After several pig farms nearby are entrusted by Zhengbang group to fatten pigs, Zhengbang is responsible for feed, medicine and pig farm management, which are more standardized than before.
Based on the prediction of several institutions, the reporter found that with the implementation of the feed prohibition order, the demand for functional feed additives with substitution effect is expected to break out, and the market increment space is expected to reach nearly 10 billion yuan, which is more than half of the current scale. This trend can be seen from the rapid growth of functional feed additives in China. In 2019, the output of feed additives in China was 11.992 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8.2%. Among them, the output of amino acids and vitamins were 3.3 million tons and 1.27 million tons, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 10.5% and 14.7%; the output of enzyme preparations and microbial preparations continued to grow rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 16.6% and 19.3%.
In addition to the new hope (000876. SZ) mentioned above, Haida group (002311. SZ), one of the feed leaders in tikang market, was engaged in the R & D, production and sales of enzyme preparations, microecology and animal health products (603739. SZ), Yiduoli (300381. SZ) engaged in the research and development, production and sales of feed enzyme preparations, and engaged in the R & D, production and sales of veterinary drugs Many enterprises, such as Lukang biochemical (002868. SZ), have recently been focused on by the capital market due to their advantages in anti drug products, comprehensive solutions and channel resources.
It is worth noting that the functional feed additives such as traditional Chinese medicine, organic acid, biological enzyme and so on, which are still in the available range, can not completely replace the role of antibiotics. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the precise nutrition ratio, palatability and other aspects of the formulated feed, as well as high-quality management in the breeding process, so as to ensure the benign growth of the quality and quantity of the aquaculture output, which is a system Sex engineering.
Zhou Guilian, President of new hope Liuhe feed Research Institute, also said at the 2020 feed industry development Yunfeng meeting in early July that under the premise of feed without adding antibiotics, feed enterprises and breeding customers should first solve the problem of how to ensure the intestinal health of animals and improve animal immunity. Banning anti drugs is not equivalent to substituting antibodies. New hope Liuhe has not fully focused on the research and development of feed on anti bacteria In terms of the development of raw material substitutes, we should focus on the deeper aspects such as the integrated nutrition of mother and child, raw material processing technology and so on. Finally, we should focus on the substitute products.
The difficulty lies in breeding
It is a challenge for the feed industry and the breeding industry to ban the comprehensive resistance from the beginning, but relatively speaking, the difficulties faced by the feed industry are smaller, because the difficulty of the implementation of the prohibition order is not in the feed side, but in the breeding side, the success or failure of the prohibition depends on whether the breeding side can adapt to this major turning point and successfully realize the non resistance breeding. The effect of antibacterials is reflected in the consumer side, whether the food processed by relevant raw materials can pass the detection of antibiotic residues.
In particular, the current pig production capacity recovery in China is in the climbing stage. For the previous small and medium-sized enterprises and individual investors, the feeding industry has lost the role of antibiotics in feed. Only by rapidly improving the biosafety system and improving the production management mode can the comprehensive breeding management level be significantly improved. Only when more antibiotics are used in the breeding process can the pigs be reduced Incidence rate, to avoid pig production has dropped sharply.
A pig breeding industry personage told the first finance and economics reporter that the impact of anti-virus ban on the breeding process is mainly reflected in the cost increase, mainly including the increase of investment in improving the breeding environment, the cost of treatment and medication in the breeding process, and the increase of feed / meat ratio. At the same time, there are also problems such as longer growth cycle and lower production efficiency. He believes that at present, the pig stock and the growth of breeding sows are in the recovery stage, and the supply of pork is still tight in general. The prohibition of antibiotic resistance will increase the difficulty of capacity recovery to a certain extent, which will lead to a decline in the production of some small and medium-sized breeding enterprises with low technical management level. It may also stimulate them to increase the use of antibiotics in breeding, and the increase of various costs will be directly transmitted to the pork price Grid.
According to incomplete statistics, the price of corn rose from about 1840 yuan / ton in early January to 2300 yuan / ton in early August, with an increase of about 500 yuan / ton; the price of soybean meal fluctuated from 2860 yuan / ton in early January to about 3000 yuan / ton, with an increase of 100-200 yuan / ton. The cost of feed raw materials and the prohibition of resistance and other factors have led to the rise of feed prices, pushing up the cost of breeding.
According to Zhu zengyongs analysis on first finance and economics, there is a significant difference in breeding costs between self breeding and outsourcing piglets, and the impact of feed price rise on the self breeding and self rearing mode is less than that on the outsourcing mode. At present, the price of pigs is at a high level, and the cost of self breeding and self breeding is about 15 yuan / kg, which is 1 yuan / kg higher than that in the beginning of January; the cost of outsourcing piglet farmers is significantly increased, and the high price and feed cost of piglets increase the breeding cost from 18 yuan / kg at the beginning of January to 26-27 yuan / kg at present, so the outsourcing piglet breeding faces certain market risks.
Chinas breeding mode is mainly self breeding. Although the current cost is rising, the breeding income is still at the best level in history. The change of feed cost will not have a great impact on the recovery of pig production capacity, and the main impact on pig price is supply and demand. However, the current supply and demand situation has improved significantly. Since August, the rise of pig price has fallen down, and some major production areas have made a slight correction. With the further recovery of domestic supply, Chinas domestic supply has been further restored The price of pigs will gradually fall. Zhu zengyong said that for farmers, in the face of feed prohibition and rising costs, the most important thing is to improve the management level. Starting with the improvement of Psy, feed conversion rate and disease prevention and control, the survival rate of pigs can be improved, the unit breeding cost can be reduced, and the feed consumption can be reduced, so as to obtain better profits.
In the attempt of banning resistance, Denmark, Sweden and other Western European countries began to implement the prohibition since the 1980s, but most of them also experienced the process of increasing drug administration in the breeding link without resistance to feed at the beginning of the prohibition.
Professor u5459 Yuming, Dean of the school of animal science and technology of China Agricultural University and deputy director of the State Key Laboratory of animal nutrition, has made it clear that there is no single feed additive that can replace feed antibiotics. Therefore, the prohibition of antibiotics requires the joint efforts of society, government departments, industry associations, feed enterprises and breeding enterprises.
Zheng Hongfei believes that there are three key points in the process of Chinas realization from feed resistance prohibition to breeding without resistance: first, China has just entered the feed prohibition, and there is still a long way to go to realize the whole breeding without resistance. The overall boost from the government and industry associations is very important. For example, the implementation of pricing and grading for meat products without anti resistance and anti pork has good benefits The development prospect of Runhe is helpful to guide consumers to improve the cognition of non resistant meat products, and then force enterprises to promote chemical free breeding. Secondly, to improve the intestinal health and immunity of pigs through more accurate and balanced feed nutrition, the company launched the 5h non anti animal health solution in February this year, focusing on intestinal health and immune health. This program covers five aspects of feed health, nutritional health, intestinal health, immune health and farm health. It is a whole process solution without resistance. In the future, feed enterprises can not only make feed, but also integrate resources according to the demand in the breeding process, so as to provide an overall solution to the dual challenges of feed Prohibition and non plague for the downstream, rather than just feed products. u201dZheng Hongfei said that in addition, upgrading the management of the breeding end and building a safe and healthy breeding environment are also important points to reduce the use of antibiotics in aquaculture.
Laoxiang chicken, a Chinese catering brand with the upstream broiler breeding industry chain, has also started the attempt of non resistance breeding earlier in response to the general trend of industry prohibition and resistance. Wu Yuefeng, the companys relevant person in charge, told the first finance and economics reporter that the company has 30 years of self breeding experience, and specializes in free range chicken breeding. Since 2011, no antibiotic containing feed has been used. Through strict screening of cooperative farmers, they are required to have a certain area of woodland and grassland for stocking, and provide management services for chicken seedlings, vaccines, feed and other aspects in the whole process After 120 days of stocking, all the chickens were collected and concentrated for fattening for 60 days, and the unqualified chickens were eliminated.
We have formed a systematic management method for long cycle stocking, high quality feed, and staged breeding. The cost of breeding chickens can be effectively controlled. The replacement of antibiotics in feed does not necessarily depend on other drugs. All the methods are basically aimed at reducing the incidence rate and improving the quality of chicken by enhancing the immunity of the chicken itself. Wu Yuefeng told reporters that consumers demand for food safety and quality is increasing, and it is an inevitable trend to ban antibiotic resistance. However, in the breeding process, the abuse of antibiotics is prohibited. At present, the use of legal compliance is still allowed. There is a transformation process.