How will fiscal and monetary policies go in the second half of the year
The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on July 30 pointed out that in order to do a good job in economic work in the second half of the year, we should adhere to the general keynote of seeking progress while maintaining stability and firmly grasp the strategic basis point of expanding domestic demand. We should ensure that the implementation of macro policies is effective. Fiscal policy should be more active and effective. Monetary policy should be more flexible, moderate and accurate.
In an interview with the media on August 6, Liu Kun, Minister of finance, said that as of July 29, of the 1.7 trillion yuan of direct management funds, provincial financial departments had allocated 1.5 trillion yuan, and municipal and county financial departments had detailed and implemented 1.29 trillion yuan of projects, which provided effective financial support for the six stability work, the implementation of the six guarantees task, and the implementation of tax reduction and fee reduction. As of July 30, 1 trillion yuan of special anti epidemic treasury bonds had been issued.
In order to make the new financial funds take the through train directly to the grass-roots level of cities and counties to benefit enterprises and people, the Ministry of finance has established a special transfer payment mechanism, built a system covering the whole process of fund allocation, allocation, use and supervision, and developed a direct fund monitoring system connecting all levels of finance to realize the whole chain and whole process monitoring.
In addition, to ensure food and energy security is to build and improve the policy system and institutional mechanism of financial support for the implementation of Rural Revitalization Strategy, so as to ensure the supply of food and important agricultural products. To ensure the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain is to give full play to the structural regulatory advantages of fiscal and taxation policies, support to break through the blocking points in the supply chain of the industrial chain, fill in the breakpoints, accelerate the promotion of enterprises resumption of work and production, stabilize the basic market of foreign trade and foreign investment, and ensure the production of enterprises and the stability of made in China. To ensure the operation of the grass-roots level is to increase the support for local financial resources, alleviate the financial expenditure pressure caused by the slowdown of local income growth, and firmly grasp the bottom line of Three Guarantees.
In an interview on August 9, Yi Gang said that he would comprehensively use a variety of monetary policy tools to guide the growth of broad money supply and social financing scale significantly higher than that of last year, and at the same time, pay attention to grasp the rhythm and optimize the structure, so as to promote the reasonable growth of inclusive small and micro enterprise loans and manufacturing medium and long-term loans.
This is the third time in a week that the central bank has taken a stand on monetary policy.
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, in order to cope with the impact of the epidemic, the central bank has adopted a financial policy of expanding the total amount, ensuring supply, promoting growth, reducing interest rates, adjusting the structure and ensuring the main body, and achieved remarkable results.
Under the sustained recovery of economic growth, the early loose monetary policy will be adjusted. Yi Gang said that in the second half of the year, the central bank will maintain the moderate and reasonable growth of financial aggregate, focus on stabilizing enterprises, ensuring employment, preventing and resolving major financial risks, accelerating the deepening of financial reform and opening up, and promoting the healthy development of economy and finance.
In terms of the total amount, moderate monetary policy needs to be relaxed, instead of flooding, the chief analyst of CITIC Securities fixed income told reporters. In fact, this is a continuation of the operation of monetary policy since the second quarter, that is, the reduction of liquidity and the stability of open market operating interest rate. In this tone, stable currency will run through the second half of the year.
The chief economist of Founder Securities also told the first finance and Economics: monetary policy depends on the economic operation trend. With the national economy gradually improving and gradually walking out of deflation, it will continue the policy trend of June and July. The monetary policy will not be too loose and will still be stable. The probability of reducing the reserve rate and interest rate in August is low.
According to relevant data, as of July 27, the 1 trillion refinancing and rediscount policy has supported local corporate banks to issue 457.3 billion yuan of preferential interest rate loans. At present, there is still 542.7 billion yuan of re loan and rediscount line, and monetary policy tools directly leading to the real economy will gradually play a role, and the probability of targeted RRR reduction is relatively small. Said Mingming.
Stabilizing foreign investment and foreign trade and expanding domestic demand
While studying and judging the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year, Zhong Shan, Minister of Commerce, said recently, the main task in the second half of the year is to stabilize the basic foreign trade and foreign investment, promote the development of domestic consumption, and promote domestic and international dual circulation.
In the second half of the year, Chinas foreign trade is facing a more complex and severe situation. The impact of the world economic downturn on demand will be further revealed. The supply chain of the industrial chain is blocked, and the survival pressure of foreign trade enterprises is still great. Efforts should be made to stabilize the main body of foreign trade, the supply chain of industrial chain, and the status of a major trading country in the world.
The Ministry of Commerce will increase policy support, promote the introduction and implementation of a series of policies to stabilize and relieve enterprises, such as export tax rebate, foreign trade credit, export credit insurance, export to domestic sales, so as to benefit more foreign trade enterprises, encourage enterprises to innovate and develop, and stimulate their vitality. Zhong Shan said.
China has a huge market with a population of 1.4 billion and a complete industrial supporting system. The business environment is constantly improving. I believe that smart foreign businessmen will not give up the Chinese market. Zhong Shan said that in the second half of the year, the Ministry of Commerce will focus on three aspects, focusing on stabilizing the stock of foreign capital and expanding the increment of foreign capital, so as to maintain its status as a big country in utilizing foreign capital.
How to promote the strategy of expanding domestic demand? Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, said that China has a population of 1.4 billion and more than 400 million middle-income groups, and the domestic market has broad space. We should actively expand consumption demand, implement consumption policies, guide consumption direction, improve consumption environment and increase consumption capacity.
To expand domestic demand, we should give better play to the fundamental role of consumption in economic growth. Ning Jizhen said that in the second half of the year, China will accelerate the high-quality development of new types of consumption such as smart retail and online education, promote the transformation and upgrading of automobile and household appliances consumption, encourage cities with purchase restriction to appropriately increase the purchase quota of automobiles, relax the restrictions on the purchase of new energy vehicles, and give appropriate subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles.
The sudden outbreak of the epidemic has made consumption from offline to online. New types of consumption, such as online education, remote office, live delivery and store home, have become popular. It not only effectively matches the supply and demand sides, but also stimulates consumption compensation, and has a profound impact on the industrial form and livelihood security.
According to the industry analysis, new consumption is a new breakthrough point in the field of consumption, and will be a powerful tool to promote the recovery of consumption, expand domestic demand and promote more smooth domestic circulation. The role of new consumption is to let consumers get more consumption services through reducing transaction costs, improving consumption experience and speeding up consumption speed under the condition of constant consumer income. In terms of total consumption, consumption increases and consumption upgrading.
For example, smart retail requires retail to fundamentally improve efficiency and reduce costs. Behind it is the joint improvement and deep cooperation in the fields of logistics, Internet and science and technology. Once smart retail develops rapidly, it means that transaction costs in the consumption process will be reduced, which in turn will stimulate consumption growth.
The transformation and upgrading of automobile and household appliances consumption will also inject vitality into boosting consumption. In the first half of the year, the State Council, the national development and Reform Commission and other departments have launched supporting policy combination fist. For example, the opinions on speeding up the development of circulation and promoting commercial consumption proposed to gradually relax or cancel the restrictions on the purchase of automobiles; the notice on measures to stabilize and expand automobile consumption clearly extended the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles until the end of 2022. Since August 1, Beijing has issued 20000 new energy passenger cars to car less families.
At the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on July 30, it was pointed out that new urbanization should drive investment and consumption demand and promote the innovation of system and mechanism for the integrated development of urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas.
Feng Kui, a researcher at the China Center for urban and small town reform and development, believes that from the perspective of demand, the promotion of urbanization will expand domestic demand, increase investment, and tap the greatest potential of Chinas long-term growth. In the long run, we must firmly take the road of urbanization development, absorb and cultivate new citizens, and continue to expand the scale of the middle-income group.
Attracting private capital into new areas such as two new and one heavy
Ning Jixuan stressed that the money invested in the state budget, local special bonds and special anti epidemic bonds should be put into projects, and the funds should go directly to enterprises and projects, and the funds should follow the projects.
Private investment accounts for nearly 60% of the total social investment, which is an important force to stabilize investment and an important starting point for doing a good job of stabilizing investment in the second half of the year.
In the first half of the year, especially in the second quarter, steady investment, including private investment, has made positive progress. The decline rate of private investment in the second quarter was 18.6 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. The private investment in 11 provinces including Hunan and Zhejiang has achieved positive growth, and the growth rate of private investment in 5 provinces, including Shanxi and Yunnan, has exceeded 8%. However, compared with the whole investment, the growth of private investment is still relatively lagging behind, and more targeted measures must be taken to promote the development of private investment.
Opening up major investment areas to private enterprises is an important part of stimulating the vitality of enterprises and tapping the potential of private investment. Recently, a series of policies and measures have been issued intensively from ministries and commissions to local governments to attract private capital into the field of two new and one heavy. Ning stressed that in the second half of the year, China will further improve the environment for private investment and increase policy support. We will support private investment in new areas and encourage private capital to increase investment in two new and one heavy areas.
Pan Helin, executive director of the Digital Economy Research Institute of Central South University of economics and law, told ifnance that the frequent implementation of the recent private investment stimulus policy is an important measure for us to improve the market-oriented investment and financing mechanism and encourage private capital to participate in social construction. This indicates that the spring of private investment has come. Among them, two new and one heavy is one of the breakthroughs and the future It will also become a key area for private investment. Pan Helin said that from the objective conditions, with the gradual promotion of tax reduction and fee reduction policy, the governments capital burden has increased, and it is imperative to share the burden of some government investment with private investment. From the perspective of investment effect, private investment is often less affected by objective factors such as administration, and the investment efficiency is higher than that of government investment, and its stimulating effect on economy is better. Source of this article: Guo Chenqi, editor in charge of first finance and Economics_ NBJ9931
Pan Helin, executive director of the Digital Economy Research Institute of Central South University of economics and law, told ifnance that the frequent implementation of the recent private investment stimulus policy is an important measure for us to improve the market-oriented investment and financing mechanism and encourage private capital to participate in social construction. This indicates that the spring of private investment has come. Among them, two new and one heavy is one of the breakthroughs and the future It will also become a key area for private investment.
Pan Helin said that from the objective conditions, with the gradual promotion of tax reduction and fee reduction policy, the governments capital burden has increased, and it is imperative to share the burden of some government investment with private investment. From the perspective of investment effect, private investment is often less affected by objective factors such as administration, and the investment efficiency is higher than that of government investment, and its stimulating effect on economy is better.